Cooking with Weather

It's the holiday season.  You plan on baking delicious chocolate chip cookies.  The recipe is in front of you.  All the ingredients are here.  You slide them in the over and set the timer.  When the timer goes off you remove the tray to see the final results.

You're expecting this.

Instead you got this.

So what happened?  It could have been array of issues.  Maybe the cookies were too thin or the oven too warm.  An unforeseen circumstance that changed the outcome.  Perhaps next time you keep a watchful eye and adjust as you go throughout the baking process.

This is the same principle reminiscent of predicting winter weather in the northeast.  Except there are far more variables and you have no control.  I can tell you what the ingredients are and show you the recipe.  I can even give you an idea of what you should expect at the end.  But I can't give you an outcome until it unfolds.

I'm not sure when, where or who termed the phrase nowcasting but it really should be the main term used for predicting our winter events.  It will never happen because somebody needs to be the first to throw out a prediction 48 hours ahead of the storm.  It would be better if they straight up said it was an idea of what to expect and not a final outcome.  Like in my cooking example, they are giving you an idea of what should happen with all the ingredients in play as long as the recipe holds true.

Winter storms have too many dynamics.  I can't say it enough.  All you have to do is look at Sunday.  My gripe isn't that the forecast was inaccurate.  My problem is that too many times channels or sites want to go on the defensive as soon as they are wrong and praise themselves as the first ones to say something when they are right.  Shut up.  If you were wrong say it and explain what happened.  If you were right give a summary and move on.  This is a science that is challenging at it's best.  Give simple explanations and room to make adjustments as storms move in.  It's up to the intellect of the people watching to understand things can change quickly and to keep monitoring weather sites for updated information as needed.

Here we go with another one of the wonderful storm examples that only the east coast can bring you.  Heading into this weekend we have a low moving west to east that will transfer energy to a low off the coast.  Where and when that transition occurs plays a huge part in our weather.

It's going to snow.  That's not a question with these types of events because moisture is coming from both directions.  We also have plenty of cold air this time.  The question really turns into how much.  From everything I've seen I think everybody is in the ballpark so far.  I've seen (for Berks and Lehigh) anywhere from 3 to 8 inches.  Sure some people will bitch that it's quite a large range, but we don't live in Alabama where four inches is going to make a big difference compared to seven.  I also agree that the snow ratios could be a bit higher than normal.  Again that is a benefit of this cold air hanging over us for three straight days - which mind you will cause the snow to stick virtually right away.

As for me I think I've been on the same boat for the past few days.  I think the transfer of energy occurs too far from us and also keeps the heaviest moisture closer towards the coast where it will be rain or a rainy mix anyway.  I also think we are looking at all snow from Reading to Allentown and not any ice.

With all these ingredients my recipe for total snowfall would stand around five or six inches for most areas as of right now.  A change in anything and we could end up with burned cookies.  If you dislike snow that might mean 10 inches or if you like it maybe only 1.

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One for Three

Finally some success.  With a second snowfall in three days it appeared this one would be easier to predict.  It was.  Most of the entire area fell in the two to five inch range as the fast moving storm system came in this morning and left a little after lunch.

Hopefully you didn't follow this minor storm on the national 24 hour channel designed to cover weather.  They gave this storm the same name as they gave the one from Sunday.  If it sounds confusing it's because it is.  If you can't figure out what they are doing don't worry as neither can they.

Snow started around the 6 a.m. mark and quickly started to accumulate for the morning drive.  You know it's going to be a pain when you start out on the first road and traffic is going 15 mph.  Like I said before the worst time to be out is at the initial onset of the snow.  The roads quickly get covered in a thin layer that compacts as cars continue to drive over the coating causing roads to instantly become more like ice.  Also the plows are just getting ready to get out to start treating the roads now covered.  Needless to say it was slow going as the timing hit at an unfortunate time.

I must say I was very pleased to notice all drivers around me throughout the commute were very cautious and kept plenty of distance.  The speed was constantly between 15 and 25 without anybody looking to pass or following too closely for conditions.  Slow, simple and safe drive.  Normally the area around route 73 in Blandon is busy on a normal day, but I can honestly say even when traffic has been redirected because of an accident I've never seen as long of a line of traffic in that area.  Can't imagine how long it took people heading south. 

Quick shot of snow that has a good chance of sticking around for awhile with temperatures struggling to get to 30.  As of last check Philadelphia did not get enough to reach a foot but now have double digits.  Allentown checked in at a solid 4.7 and Reading doesn't ever do anything so I will find the best number I can.

As always (this year) here is a map of local totals.  Be mindful that these totals are compiled by the NWS from people reporting snow totals who are either trained spotters, public reports or weather offices.  Basically it's not always going to be completely accurate and some reports were taken before the storm was over.  Example:  Notice the .5 near Reading which was taken at 7 this morning

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The Week Ahead:

Locally our focus shifts to the storm system on Saturday.  Thankfully this one is on a weekend for those of us who don't need to head out anywhere.  No way to call this one yet.  We once again are set to be in a battle zone right now between snow, ice and rain.  The one good thing for those who like a snowstorm is cold air will dominate the rest of the week so getting that air to move out is going to be a challenge.  All I'm hinting at is even if the warm air wins out in the end, we could see a steady snowfall at the beginning.

Between now and then we are quiet outside of the unusually cold air.  Sounds like a running pattern so far.  We had one in November and now another in December.  However, the winds are sweeping across the lakes from tonight into Thursday giving the normal areas chances at huge snows.  I will try to get a similar map as the one above for the areas that get hit over the next 48 hours or so.  Snow totals in the plateau region of New York should hit 40 inches.  My goal is to show how drastic a few miles can be when it comes to lake effect.

Look for the lake effect snow totals and an update on the Saturday storm in a post Thursday night.

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Zero For Two

Nothing shows the complexity and difficulty in predicting winter storms in our area than what we saw this weekend.  Virtually nothing went as predicted.

We can start with Friday.  Model indications showed that rain pushing through the area could change to snow as a push of cold air followed behind the precipitation.  Amounts anywhere from one to six inches were forecast for the area.  I was hesitant from the beginning since it is uncommon for our area to ever see that back end snow.  But the models showed accumulating snow so forecasters ran with it.  What ended up happening?  The precip moved though quickly.  The cold air came rushing in.  But by that time the rain was gone.  Not only did we see no snow, hardly any part of eastern PA did.  As one local weather site said Saturday morning avoiding lenghty reasoning, "let's move on."

It's easier to move on when you get a second chance at making an accurate forecast for a new winter storm 24 hours later.  The winter weather advisories were posted.  The timing and amounts were set.  Then all of the sudden a problem.  For most it probably began when the Eagles game started.  The prediction was for light snow or sleet to begin some time in the second half.  There was no indication of a heavy snowstorm at 1:00.  Advisories changed to warnings.  An inch or two went to 6-8 or even 10.  Areas along the Mason-Dixon line through New Jersey were in heavy banding.  Talk about being unprepared.

I followed the radar closely also using the PA traffic cams to monitor the progression.  Eventually the snow started in Berks from south to north.  It was never anything close to what areas to the south received.  By the way, a note to all.  Conditions tend to be at their worst at the onset of a storm.  For one the little bit of snow that sticks at the beginning makes the road more slippery than when driving on packed snow.  Two, more people tend to be out either trying to beat the storm or unaware there was a storm coming.  All you have to do is look at the Morgantown incident to understand it doesn't take much.

Not a great start to the season for those who predicted low snowfall totals for Philadelphia (ABC).  In the first snow of the season Philadelphia already passed their total for all of last season with 8.6 inches.  Other nearby areas had over a foot.  Meanwhile Allentown reported 1.3 and Reading 1.8.  If Philadelphia can squeeze out 3.5 inches tomorrow they will be over a foot for the season with 10 days left before winter officially starts.  I say they get it.

Below are some of those crazy totals for Berks and Lehigh.  Numbers increase as you head south.

To top off the storm, the second batch that was to move in overnight to give Lehigh and Berks a possible 1-3 more inches including ice ended up moving further east than originally expected giving the area only a coating of ice.

This was an ultimate fail in forecasting.  It shows than neither human or computer knows what will happen.  We can only take a best guess.  And if we rely mainly on models to predict we don't really need meteorologists.

Thanks to mother nature we all get a third chance at saving face with yet another snowfall tomorrow.  This one has fewer dynamics and colder air which should benefit the forecasting side.  I am a pattern guy when it comes to weather.  It all works in patterns.  I could have written this last night when others said models showed the heaviest snow moving across our region and not the Delaware Valley.  Funny how they readjusted again this evening.  The pattern is set that the heaviest snow should fall in the same area that got it yesterday so that's what I'm going with.  A general two to five inches for all would be a reasonable guess.  However I'm not so sure this thing doesn't even move further to the east so that certain sections of our area get little to nothing.  Advisories say 2-4 for most of us and are posted for counties north and west of the area as well.  They are the professionals.  Also of note could see high ratio snow tomorrow in certain areas.  Eight inches not out of the question for some locales.
 

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Storm # 2

If you follow the Weather Channel you would notice a very large winter storm moving across the northern portions of the country which the station has named for the third time this year.  The practice of doing so is stupid and only recognized by that particular station.  By the time January begins they could be half way through the alphabet cause guess what?  It's winter.  The county sees a lot of storms and snow. 

Let's rewind a bit.  The pre-Thanksgiving day storm turned out to be more of a dud than anything else.  Most local areas received some snowfall at the very tale end.  In some areas, especially elevated, the snow stuck to the grass.  More surprising was the areas that were in line to receive hefty totals received far less than expected.  With it being the holiday I didn't get a chance to post any snowfall total maps.  In this case it wasn't really worth it anyway.  That could be changing.

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Enter storm # 2 for the northeast or named storm four if you follow TWC unless they say it's the same energy as the current storm which it technically might be but is developing another area of low pressure to the south to cut across the southeast before making it's way up towards our area.  But I mean with those strict storm name characteristics they have I'm sure we will get a clearer answer.  Sorry if it seems like I'm continually making fun of the name thing, but I'm going to continually make fun of the name thing.  Any who.   

Winter storm watches are already posted for parts of Texas and much of Oklahoma.  I'm sure Dallas will once again see a watch or warning shortly as the cold air has plunged southward from Canada.  Like really cold air.  The high in Oklahoma City on Friday is forecast to be 24 with a low of 10.  Don't fear, the weekend should be even colder.  Either way the south is getting hit again and there should be a swath of ice and snow that extend north and east as the week progresses.  For us the timing looks to be Sunday.  Looks to be.

Out ahead of the storm we sit in milder temperatures which keeps most if not all the precip in the form of rain.  Once again we could see some snow/sleet on the backside however I think that's unlikely.  However, like many times in winter the storm will help bring in cold air after it passes through which sets us up for part two.  This would be in the Sunday/Monday time frame.

A wedge of moisture slides north into our area as high pressure sits over top of us.  Now normally high pressure blocks areas of low pressure.  It also tends to keep the cold air in place.  The low pressure eventually overtakes the area.  The question instead might be does the cold air hold on or how long does it hold on.  This potential snow has been on the models since the weekend.  And all the models.  Being that long away and us being in the tri-state triangle where winter storms disappear, I figured I wouldn't mention anything quite yet.  But now we can at least start tracking this with a little more curiosity.

Too many questions yet with this one.  Go figure, a battle between cold air and warm air in our area will be the determining factor.  What a shock.  Either way this does have the possibility of being a measurable, shoveable or perhaps plowable snow for our region.  As usual, best chances to the north and west of the big cities.


NOTES:


In case anybody is keeping track, November was two degrees below normal (Reading) and three in Allentown. 

Meteorological winter began on December 1st.  Astronomical winter begins December 21st.  If you live in Montana, Wyoming, Minnesota, North Dakota, Maine, UP of Michigan, higher elevations of the Rockies, parts of the Cascades, Alaska, areas along the Great Lakes or countless other areas you might already be two months in.

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