Welcome 2014

Let's dive straight into the first storm of 2014.

This one has been fun.  It's been on the radar for awhile now.  There has been little agreement towards what will happen in our area.  Today showed further how different things can be interpreted.  As Accuweather lowered totals for our region, the National Weather Service increased the totals.  This was done at the same time when the NWS totals were already higher than Accuweather to begin with.  So basically one group went down even further while another went up even higher.

Don't we all love these storms that are so complex that nobody has a solid idea of what is going to happen?  I present to you that very case with the first blizzard of the season.  I don't have the luxury of seeing all the maps the professionals have access to.  I also don't have the background and years of study they possess.  It leaves me at a terrible disadvantage when it comes to reading all of the ingredients as to how these intensifying storms take shape.  All I basically have are the model runs and a bit of knowledge.

Nothing since this storm came in to the picture suggested we were going to get hit by a monster storm.  There might have been one run that suggested a substantial snowfall over a foot.  Since then the runs have been more consistent.  The heaviest precip stays to our north or northeast.  The precipitation amounts should range from half an inch to three quarters of an inch.  Knowledge would suggest this could produce anywhere from 5-10 inches of snow.

So here we go.  We have two valley areas here that also happen to be the boundary line for advisories which makes it easier.

For the Delaware Valley folks:  Logic would say people in Bucks (northern) and Montgomery (northern) would see better totals than areas south and west.  The same should apply to Berks (east) and especially the closer you get to Allentown.  And yes Berks and the Reading metro area are in the Delaware Valley.  Now you could argue that places like Kutztown and Topton fit better into the Lehigh Valley area.  Just like Hamburg has more of a Schuylkill County vibe and Womelsdorf a central PA feel.  I'm just going by standard definition and the simpler reason that Berks fits nowhere into the picture.

This above area, possibly to my demise, I see in a general 4 to 6 inch range.

Now for the Lehigh gang.  This region is much simpler by definition purposes.  Allentown and Lehigh County.  Bethlehem and Northampton County (and technically Carbon and Warren county).  I do agree that this is the area more likely to see higher amounts.  After all these guys have a winter storm warning compared to the Delaware Valley region all having a watch.  There is a lot more up in the air with this region.  I could see some areas around the ten inch mark.  But I have to be a little conservative and go somewhere between 5-8.

Even though we don't really know what will end up happening with this storm we do have full confidence that temperatures are going to be cold on Friday.  Somebody is going to hit negative numbers.  The perfect way to enjoy all of that shoveling depending on where you live after the storm is done and how much is left to shovel when the winds come roaring through.

Latest model run coming in tonight around 9:45.  Let's see if there are any changes.  They will be posted at the bottom either way.

I am going to post these totals by the great John Bolaris from tonight.  I only do this for one reason.

Philly: 4-6 inches with a low level chance (30-40 percent) exceeding 6 inches.
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.
Montgomery, Chester, and northern Bucks County: 4-8 inches.
Lehigh Valley: 5-9 inches
Poconos: 5-10 inches, with 30 percent chance of exceeding 10 inches.
Southern New Jersey: 4-6 inches.
Jersey Shore: 2-4 inches.
Central and northern Delaware: 4-6 inches.
Southern Delaware: 2-4 inches.
Moderate coastal flooding along central and northern New Jersey shores.
Southern New Jersey: Minor flooding ... ALL by Friday morning.

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_The_calm_before_the_storm.html#z27I9CcFxEoRoFQf.9

Philly: 4-6 inches with a low level chance (30-40 percent) exceeding 6 inches. 
  
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.

Montgomery, Chester, and northern Bucks County: 4-8 inches.

Lehigh Valley: 5-9 inches

Poconos: 5-10 inches, with 30 percent chance of exceeding 10 inches.

Southern New Jersey: 4-6 inches.

Jersey Shore: 2-4 inches.

Central and northern Delaware: 4-6 inches.

Southern Delaware: 2-4 inches.

Moderate coastal flooding along central and northern New Jersey shores.

Southern New Jersey: Minor flooding ... ALL by Friday morning.

Bolaris covered a lot of areas in his predictions.  Like I've been trying to figure out for years, what section does Berks County fit in?

Philly: 4-6 inches with a low level chance (30-40 percent) exceeding 6 inches.
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.
Montgomery, Chester, and northern Bucks County: 4-8 inches.
Lehigh Valley: 5-9 inches
Poconos: 5-10 inches, with 30 percent chance of exceeding 10 inches.
Southern New Jersey: 4-6 inches.
Jersey Shore: 2-4 inches.
Central and northern Delaware: 4-6 inches.
Southern Delaware: 2-4 inches.
Moderate coastal flooding along central and northern New Jersey shores.
Southern New Jersey: Minor flooding ... ALL by Friday morning.

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_The_calm_before_the_storm.html#z27I9CcFxEoRoFQf.99

9:55 UPDATE

I wouldn't put a ton of stock in one run.  But I did say I would post an update.  There was less total moisture on this one than in previous runs.

Philly: 4-6 inches with a low level chance (30-40 percent) exceeding 6 inches.
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.
Montgomery, Chester, and northern Bucks County: 4-8 inches.
Lehigh Valley: 5-9 inches
Poconos: 5-10 inches, with 30 percent chance of exceeding 10 inches.
Southern New Jersey: 4-6 inches.
Jersey Shore: 2-4 inches.
Central and northern Delaware: 4-6 inches.
Southern Delaware: 2-4 inches.
Moderate coastal flooding along central and northern New Jersey shores.
Southern New Jersey: Minor flooding ... ALL by Friday morning.

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_The_calm_before_the_storm.html#z27I9CcFxEoRoFQf.99

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Quick Hit

Did anybody notice the snow this morning?  I refer to mainly anybody in the Reading area.  So much for some passing snow showers. 

As we get ready to say goodbye to December, we might not be able to call it a month to remember but it was one that I will give a solid A grade to.  It looks like measurable snow is done with for the rest of the month.  However the way this month went I'm not sure we can even say that at this point.  Allentown came in officially with over 15 inches for the month.  It doesn't sound like a lot.  It has more to do with the frequent nature of the snow.

After today, I will use Reading as an example.  Unofficially or officially depending on how serious you take my running total for the city, Reading is just under 12 inches for the month.  A solid showing considering there is another two and a half months of good snow producing season left.  We should be on our way to a higher than average total snowfall especially if the coastal storms get going.  So far it's been quiet on that front.  Not so quiet on the quick morning snows which seem to consistently hit at rush hour.

From December 8th to December 17th measurable snow was reported five days.  In the week from the 8th on a Sunday to the 14th on a Saturday it literally snowed every other day.  The average high in that span of 10 days was 32 degrees.  The average high in that time span would normally be 42.  By the weekend the highs in Reading were 59 and 68 and another 59 on Monday.  The following day on Christmas Eve a quick snow squall laid down a measurable coating for Reading.  Christmas the high hit 29.  Another full ten degrees below the average. 

If you are still following that brings us to today.  The call going in was for a coating of snow for the region due to a passing front.  It would have been accurate if at the end they said a coating for all (except Berks County).  It was bad enough the Reading paper had to do an article about it. 

Now listen I know this is what we call the northern part of the United States and we clearly have seen and driven in snow before.  The issue once again like the Philadelphia snowstorm earlier in the month is that it was completely, as stated above, unexpected.  A lot of people don't follow the weather.  They really don't follow it when nothing is supposedly coming in the morning.  They really really don't follow it on Christmas when people are gathered around kitchen tables or holiday trees.  So it shouldn't be a surprise to see headlines like this or the following image.

Once again the turnpike near Morgantown became the scene of early morning chaos.  As you can see from the picture and in the description this accident involved 35 vehicles after the snow came down hard and fast this morning.  The lanes were closed from 8 in the morning to 5 in the afternoon.

Here is how little of an idea I had about this and I follow weather.  I had some business to take care of this morning so as I woke and prepared for the day by getting on the computer and turning on a little Premier League action I never once bothered looking outside.  It took a phone call for me to open the blinds to see everything covered and snow falling at the size and intensity as shown in the first picture.  I checked the radar and saw a fairly heavy but narrow band going across the region.  The band stretched throughout all of eastern PA and moved from west to east.  Alright, put the travel plans on hold for a bit. 

A coating my ass.  The tire tracks on the streets in the complex showed at least a few inches of depth.  I headed north towards the Lehigh Valley after I knew the snow had passed.  I can also report as many others probably can (see accident above and the 44 car accident on I-78 in Berks) that I never once saw a plow or salt truck.  Not even at my complex who have things cleared the second it starts accumulating.  Even they were sitting at home in their pajamas with the rest of the crews.  As I headed north towards the Lehigh Valley it wasn't long before the difference was very noticeable.  As I approached Allentown you could tell the roads were never touched with a plow.  The grass was still poking out of lawns.  Even side streets were not covered.  The same band moved through the whole region yet most saw nothing.

The sun even came out for most of the day and melted what had fallen in Allentown.  I returned home in the late afternoon and everything still covered here.  So I checked the totals.

Allentown:  0.4 inches
Philadelphia:  Trace

Reading at last report was at 2.5.  Many other towns were over two as well.  No other town in a different eastern PA county reported more than 1.8.  That's how tight the heavy gradient of snow was.

Here were some of the Reading Eagle quotes:

  "We were expecting some snow, but only about a coating," he said. "Instead we got an inch or two in a three-hour time frame. I think it was the fact that it came down a lot quicker and harder over a shorter period of time than we expected."

 Today's forecast was for a passing snow shower during the day, so many were caught off-guard by the intensity and duration of the snowfall.

Allentown and Philadelphia only received the expected coating.

Another messy December day with snow.  Another morning commute turned nightmare.  Another swing and a miss for the weather community.  Sometimes it's better to simply stay off the roads.  Unless you work for PennDot.  You folks should probably be out there. 

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And Again

They keep on coming.  Nor'easter number one is in the books and by all accounts I believe we can mark this down as a success for predictions.  The consensus was generally somewhere between 3 and 10 inches of snow for Berks and Lehigh.  It might seem like a big range but everybody agreed the gradient for snowfall was going to be tight.  In the end it was.

Here is a look at the results.

 

Normally this year I was showing a map of eastern PA that labeled reported snowfall totals.  This time I went with the color coded map.  It differentiates between the snow totals better.  The darker blue (Berks) indicates ranges from 4-6 inches.  The darker pink is 6-8.  The brighter the pink color the higher the totals were.  

The predictions were not dead on accurate but close enough to consider this a job well done.  National media, local media and weather groups all kept acceptable ranges including my pinpoint guess of 5-6 inches.  Allentown officially came in at 6.8.  Reading has no official total, and I caution to use any total I see for the rest of the season at this point.  The best we can do is use the total from a trained spotter in Wyomissing at 5.5 inches.  

There were some mistakes.  The southern region as shown above could not muster up much of anything which was expected though moisture wasn't as plentiful.  Philadelphia (all totals from the airport) came in at just 0.3 inches.  Ice was hit or miss.  I didn't go out looking so I don't know where the line of ice made it.  It wasn't up here as the snow transitioned to sleet as temperatures dropped.  Yes, dropped.  And you want to be a meteorologist.

Round 17

Maybe we aren't quite to that number, but it feels like it.  No time to sit around and discuss this past one as two days later we look towards another measurable snow.  Trust me enjoy this now because at some point we will be sitting around for two weeks in the middle of January waiting for a pattern like this to come.

This snow is the result of a clipper system moving on by.  Of course things can't be that simple.  Once it gets near the coast it picks up a little energy which will help to intensify the snow.  Everything has trended to keep the higher amount of snow to the north.  So Allentown is more likely to see more than Reading and substitute any other town north of any other town that is to the south.  

Once again the air is very cold which only enhances snowfall totals.  With clippers you can't get a ton out of them anyway.  The bad news is for the second straight Tuesday the morning drive could be a concern.  The good news is this snow is going to be very fluffy.  

Our advisory states 2-4 inches.  I'll take the low end of that for most of Berks especially from Reading on southward.  Lehigh Valley is in a better position to get closer to the 4 mark.  If I'm forced to make a call I say the Reading area struggles to hit two inches.  Allentown is in a 2-3 swath.  Looks like the parade of snow gets derailed after this one. 

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Lake Effect

As I finished up my last post and headed to the NWS site I noticed much of central PA has had winter watches posted.  I would expect the same for much of our area by mid morning tomorrow.

Also of note are the updated snow totals from the Tuesday event.  Allentown did well.  Reading tries.  Logically there would be another report since there was accumulating snow this morning in most places.  I know Allentown already reported something and Reading should have tallied close to a half inch as there was a decent amount of snow on the ground when I woke up and was snowing quite hard as I left.  We will see what happens.  I will guess they report nothing.

I promised snow totals from the lakes and dagnabbit I deliver.  Again only places that report show up on the map.  I saw two areas that reported 44 inches.

I turned off the color shading that normally appears indicating varying results.  Numbers are all you need to see here.  This is the last 48 hours.

Notice Syracuse at the bottom of the map and the reports in that area.  Head north on 81 to the first yellow number in Pulaski at 14 inches.  For comparison that is like driving from Reading to Allentown.  The plateau region numbers are the areas like 20, 25, 28 and 35.  Those are the ares that generally see 200-300 inches of snow.  There are also very few people that live there.

Hey just for fun take a look at what the area is expecting from tonight into tomorrow. 

There you go.  That's how to make a call.  Anywhere from 6 to 18 inches depending on where the bands lay down the heaviest.  In three days somebody will get 60 inches of snow.  Now that's lake living.

Here is something amusing.  All our talk about the storm on Saturday will also be moving into this region of New York.  Except they will expect around 3-6 inches which as you can see will be like getting a day off from the lake machine.

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