Bring Spring

This horrendous winter is officially over.  Of course I use the adjective to describe how bad it was if you love cold and snow.  Now we are hitting the 70's like it is late May and flowers are beginning to sprout from the unfrozen soils.  This roller coaster weather that had most of the nation riding high really messes with the body and nature.  When nighttime lows dip below freezing next week killing blooming buds, I'm sure it will piss somebody else off.

No matter what you can't please everybody.  And mother nature is no exception.  Warm winter?  Angry ski resorts.  Happy local governments.  Early Spring?  Tornado season begins even earlier.  Nobody enjoys that unless you are a tornado chaser for which I guess you would since that is how you base your income.  Regardless, I will move on from this winter with no regrets.  I chalk up the warmer than average temperatures and less than average snowfall to nothing more than weather being weather.  This is what happens.  It has been this way for thousands and millions of years.  And next year can only bring the unknown.  We have far too much of this year to go to look towards next winter.

If I had told you before winter began that our biggest snowfall of the season would be in October, temperatures would consistently be well above normal from November through March and Philadelphia would receive less than five inches of snow after having two seasons of record breaking snow, would you believe it?  Let the global warming climate changers sound the trumpets.  But I digress.

How about if I told you there would be a snowstorm in April?  This year.  Hold that thought.


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I really don't think this is even necessary after this winter.  But let's go back and look at the predictions made by the local forecasters who used all their high tech computer models, pattern changes, past history and years of knowledge, schooling and studying to realize they have in reality no clue.

Remember, Philadelphia will end as of now with 4 inches of snow.  Not even going to go into temps that were predicted.  Every month was well above normal and nobody could have predicted that.

CBS:  21-28
FOX:  24-30
ABC:  22-28
NBC:  30-40
ACCU:  27

Lehigh Valley Weather:  Less than 22


We have a winner.  I will accept my gifts at a later date at the Weather Forecasting Convention in late April.

I'd like to call to the carpet Hurricane Schwartz, which by the way, will end up being a horrible nickname should there one day be a devastating hurricane with that name, for his call of 30-40 inches.  Instead I will let him off with a pass since he took a bold stand, going the furthest away from average.  The real loser of this winter's forecast goes to John Bolaris, who never even got to witness the end of it.

I look forward to the challenge again.  Or perhaps we could guess on how much rainfall will fall this summer.  I'm up for another forecast-off.  If we all recall, last season was extremely wet.  Like 30 inches of rain in two months wet.  I'm smelling a new blog post coming.

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End of Winter

Hard to have an end when there was never really a beginning.  And I say this while much of the country just experienced a prototypical spring-like storm.  Except it isn't spring.  I guess when our biggest snowfall of the season is in October anything is possible.  I held out for as long as I could but as we now approach March with no signs of cold or snow on the way, I have thrown in the towel and hoping at the least for an abnormally cool summer.

I just got done looking at the long range and it isn't pretty.  Temperatures are primed to move upwards.  Like 60's upwards.  We do have a few chances of soaking rain to break up the monotony of above average temperatures and suns and clouds.  At least when I do my winter in review I can stand tall on my Philadelphia prediction that everybody else blew.  

On a more troubling note it is once again the season to talk tornadoes.  I can't imagine it being anything like last year but with the way the last few days have played out who knows.  It's a bit early to tell what patterns will set up but I wonder what kind of severe weather we are in for.  Tornadoes can occur just about anywhere and we are not in the clear even though nobody talks about it.  As winter fades I will move away from the snowy side and transition back to the stormy and severe.

However, I'm not quite done with winter yet even though it might be done with me.  Those flurries in the forecast on Saturday turned into something a little more exciting.  As you can see below a nice band of snow set up briefly from western PA to our area.  It was the closest thing to lake effect snow you could experience this far from a lake.

In fact I went to check the radar after looking out the window and seeing partly sunny skies being overtaken by a line of dark clouds.  Ten minutes later and what a difference.

It got windy.  The snow started to fly, and I was back feeling pretty good again.  Even if it did only last a short time it was what I will assume, a nice little way to end a lackluster winter.  A chance of flurries turned into this lasting image from the 2011-12 season.

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To cap things off we got a little ugly on Sunday running the trails up and down the pagoda in what could only be described as a technically nightmare for anybody looking for flat ground.  As much as I wanted to enjoy the scenery, I spent 90% of the race looking at the ground.  The uphill climbs kick your ass while you try not to break an ankle on the downhill.  If I wasn't hearing people around me fall, I was passing people limping or being helped.

DETAILS BELOW:

FINISHING SPOT & TIME:

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Not Looking Good Folks

There is still a lot of time for things to change and if there is a hint of change perhaps we can look at the forecast.  I always look at the models before I take a look at what various meteorologists are predicting.  I only have access to so much information and only so much time to put something together.  All of the national centers have some form of snow in the forecast for Sunday.  But how much, if any is still up in the air.  The models are looking to ruin my fun.

Off we go.

We start with the big boy that had the monster on the map yesterday exactly 24 hours ago.  Not so much of a monster (for us) as it was yesterday.  In this case the low is too far out to sea but West Virginia and Virginia get a nice storm if you know anybody down there.

Here is the Canadian run.  Puts it in a very similar position but without all the moisture to the north.  Not a huge difference from yesterday except it moved a tad south.

 

This has got to be the worst run for snow for anybody north of North Carolina.  Actually, nobody would get snow in this case.  I think there is a reason you never hear about the Naval model.  Watch it end up begin right... but I don't think so.

And now that we moved closer, we have a new player in town.  This would be the North American run that looks at storms less than 84 hours away.  Looking similar to the others with only Virginia cashing in.  Although this model needs time to zero in.  If I get a chance I will post the updated run in a few hours to see if there is a change.

Remember that GFS 120 hours snowfall map from yesterday?  Notice the shift in predicted accumulating snow now.  We are now in the less than one inch while places to the south and west are closer to 4-6 inches.  Just goes to show everybody went south with the storm.

However, we are still too far away to make an accurate prediction of what will happen.  That's why people monitor this garbage all day.  It constantly changes.  What we need to find is a trend.  If the next runs keep moving the low slightly south or keep it in the same spot, I'm more inclined to say we are onlookers to the snow.  If we can get a bump north, we are back in the game.

I will go against the computers and say it again.  We will get snow this weekend.  Maybe not a storm, but grass covering snow.

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10 P.M. Update

North American model updated a little while ago.  Have to consider this a move in the right direction.  Precip and low both have moved north and there is certainly cold air in the area. 

Check this out.  I also ran a different North American model for our area that shows the precipitation moving in.  This shot is at the furthest point north the area of snow would get.  Basically anything north of Reading would get nothing. 

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Hype Train

I tried to pride myself on not jumping to conclusions this winter season since most storms take a long time to develop leaving predictions less than 24 hours away pointless.  Too many times I've seen people dismiss a storm a few days out before we get 6-8 inches.  It happened in October.  And even more times do I see mets talking of the big one a few days in advance only to have the storm steer away from the coast or not even make it up.  I get too excited only to be let down.

Well this season I didn't care what the models said five days in advance.  I wasn't going to put much stock in it.  At least not until everything started coming together.  Only problem was that this season had nothing to get me excited about.  A little snow here, warm temperatures for most of winter, little snow again.  Not a winter to look back at and enjoy.  That is why I am back with the hype.  If the storms miss, who cares.  I've already been less than thrilled with this season anyway.

That's why you will hear it first right here.  We are getting a snowstorm this weekend. 

That's right.  I said it.  I can't take it back now. 

This is what the model shows currently for the weekend.  That is beautiful.  Low right off the coast.  Strong winds from the northeast.  Heavy snow in the interior.  Now I will say this was not even close to what it looked like yesterday at the same time.  But the closer we get to Sunday, the better the chances something happens.  As of now this is looking really nice.  I see the Weather Channel is still sitting on partly cloudy for Sunday.  No surprise there.  They won't even venture a guess until at least Friday.

So where is the problem?  Slam dunk right?  Not quite.  Take a look.

This would be from the Canadian model.  Notice the difference?  Low moves off the coast further south and takes the moisture with it.  We might get a passing flake out of this.

How about this model run from the Navy's prediction center.  Shows that high pressure system dominating the northeast while the low goes out to sea.  Certainly a possibility.

The dreaded euro model.  One of the best advanced models out there.  Bye bye low.  Right in that same area as the Canadian model takes it.

What do we have going for us then?  It's pretty simple.  There should be cold air in place.  I'm even a bit hesitant to say how cold though.  The NAO is projected to go negative right around the 19th.  That could do wonders for the track.  A low is taking a U-shaped track down the Rockies and into the Gulf.  Now will it curve back up?  I say it will.  Or perhaps my will, will will it up the coast.  The models are not really agreeing.

I tried blowing up the GFS total snowfall accumulation predictions for the next 120 hours.  Our area is anywhere from 4-8 inches but less than 30 miles in either direction and you could be looking at 0 or 10.  Plus this is from the same model that has us getting plastered.

Before I go, I have to leave with this regardless of if something or nothing happens this weekend.  A week ago I posted about what was on store for us ahead.  I even posted a picture of what one model showed for right around the 19th or 20th.  You can scroll down the page.  I will wait.  Back yet?  Remember, the picture at the top is the "prediction" of one model for the 19th.  Wouldn't this be something?

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