Rising Towards the Top

I'm not sure how this winter season will end up ranking compared to past winters.  I guess it could be a matter of opinion.  Numbers don't always give a clear indication.  What I have taken away from the season so far is the persistent nature of snowfalls and the steady stream of coldness.

We can start with the facts about this winter taken from recordings at Allentown Airport.  Including today the snowfall this season is at 66.7 inches.  That is 4th all time since recordings began in 1922.  Ahead of this season is 1993-94 (75.4), 1995-96 (71.4) and 1966-67 (67.2).  Considering the late February to early March outlook it would seem likely we at the very least move into second place if not first by the time winter is over.  Anything over a half inch will place the three snowiest years within the last 20 seasons.  Maybe that will put to bed the stories of the old timers telling us how high the snow was in their day.  The answer is apparently not as high as today.

This season we have had so far:

• 22 days of measurable snowfall

• 12 days of temperatures that fell to single digits

• 6 different days the low fell to negative numbers

• 31 days the high temperature failed to reach 32

Unfortunately I don't have the ability to compare this to anything historically.  However I could easily say this is unusually.  For instance, the average temperature in January was five degrees below normal.  The average temperature so far for February is seven degrees below normal.  It doesn't seem like a lot but it is.  December was right on average and November was three below normal. 

This type of weather starts lending itself to the cries of forecasters reassuring the upcoming warmup.  A normal winter has many ups and down.  Hitting 50 twice after all this cold must be like saying it will be 70 to many.  Here's the full story.  The following two weeks after this weekend will probably see temperature on average around 10 degrees below normal.  Ten degrees.  Two weeks.  Enjoy those 50's.

If we are going to break snowfall records this is going to be the year.  Everything added up to keep the cold air in place and the moisture flowing.  The next few weeks will not be nearly as active.  That's probably a good thing at this point.  It doesn't meant that there aren't chances for snow.

So by the time March ends (or April the way this is going) could we call this the worse winter in recorded history?  You could.  Will it be the snowiest?  I'm going to guess that it will.  Hitting that number one spot would make this the greatest winter ever.  Not the worst.  It's all how you look at it.

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Pre Valentine's Day Storm of 2014

Winter storms always have the possibility of changing right up until they hit.  Hell, they can change during the middle of the storm.  As I worked and meteorologists studied maps it is becoming more evident this has the makings of a big storm.

I didn't think I was going to get to make another post, but the National Weather Service has changed their idea today so I figured why can't I.  I was always told if you can't trust the accuracy of a government agency who can you trust.

If you look at my post below you will see the totals they were going with right up through this afternoon.  Now it looks like this.

Widespread totals of double digits for Allentown and Reading as well as much of north western New Jersey and extending into the Poconos.  Philadelphia deals with some mixing.

Remember that darn North American model that wouldn't move the moisture as far west as others?  Here is what it picks up now.

The yellow to orange colors are at least 1.5 inches of rain.  What makes this one a little different is many areas in the heavy moisture will deal with mixing or a change to rain.  Our area is in one of the best for all heavy snow.  In this setup you are looking at upwards of 15 inches.  If you look around the NYC area you are probably getting closer to 20.

What makes this storm interesting to many is the size and area this covers.  You already have a major ice storm in the deep south.  Heavy snow between 10 and 20 inches will fall from Virginia to Maine.  It won't hit the big cities quite as hard as the interior cities but nonetheless this will make the history books simply because of the range of impacts.

Warm air might actually give us a little change over at some point.  Frankly that will just makes things worse.  It's already going to be a heavy snow.  We don't need to add to the weight with sleet or ice.  Let's stick with the snow and hope everything goes well.  Unless you have an important job that needs to keep you out tomorrow, enjoy the snowfall from inside.  I haven't really seen anybody predict less than 10 inches for our area.

We got lucky last time.  I'm not sure how lucky we will get this time.  Snowstorms are awesome until you lose power.  Assuming I am home and with power I will update when I'm not outside rolling around in the snow like a puppy.  Otherwise you will most likely find me outside enjoying every minute of the last major snowstorm of the season.  Who could ever get tired of this?

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Going to the Maps

The issue I was having that apparently many others are not is that even after waiting around those pesky North American models were not picking up the storm very well.  The heaviest moisture stayed closer to the coast.  Meanwhile the models like the Euro, Japan and Canadian keep pushing the storm even further west which would mean rain for the coast, a mix for I-95, and heavy snow for the suburbs.

Here we meet again waiting for the final run I will get to see before making my last post before the storm.  Actually I haven't even looked at it yet.  Let's see if anything has changed.  Alright let's try something.

In anticipation of seeing a change I grabbed the run from last night that kept me cautious about this storm.

The heaviest moisture is the orange while the lightest is the purple.  You can draw a line from the ocean to the mountains to go from heavy to light.  This is the one from last night.  Berks and Lehigh are in the lightest of blues.

Now 24 hours later this is what we see.

We can agree the heavier moisture is moving further inland.  With at least another 24 hours before the onset of the storm the question could be how much further does it move. 

The picture above would illustrate an 8-10 inch event in Allentown and Reading.  Snow would extend from Philadelphia and Trenton north and west with those areas pushing the foot plus range.  The problem is most are already throwing this one out (I'm not yet) because the others trend for big snowfalls to stay a bit further inland.

I'm not going to beat around the bush or use anymore ancient phrases.  I said last night I would go with what I thought and not worry about others.  Going into today I would have said most areas are looking at a foot as the low number for totals.  After seeing everything play out today I have less confidence in that idea.  Either way we are looking at a major storm. 

I pulled some storm totals from earlier this afternoon.  Some might have changed by now.

ABC says 10-14 inches from Lancaster to Reading to Allentown

CBS has a large area in 6-12 inches

Picture sums up this one from NBC

From the National Weather Service

EPAWA Group:  Red is 12-18 and Orange is 10-15

The fun part is I can't really say anybody is wrong.  The EPA guys as I like to call them tend to be aggressive with calls.  Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.  They might be a tad on the high side.  I actually favor the NOAA call right now which is a little surprising for me because I generally haven't agreed with them this year.  Even though others call for a similar range I like my totals to be a little more accurate.  6-12 is too big of a range.  You could argue so is 12-18 but those are both already large totals.  What's the difference if you see 13 or 17.  12 is double the amount that 6 is.

Everything will start coming together tomorrow.  Once again power outages could be widespread with gusty winds and heavy snow.  By this time tomorrow night we should be well aware of what is coming.  I say should even though we probably won't.  These things always have a trick up their sleeves. 

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Here We Go

You know something is going on when winter storm watches are posted for Philadelphia days before the first flakes will fly.  Or when watches and warnings already extend from Georgia to Pennsylvania.  It usually means a couple things.  There is cold air to work with and a lot of moisture.

The reasoning the certainty of snow is already high is because all the big boy models have already agreed on a track except for the GPS which is notoriously slow to grasp the idea.  The agreement of models can certainly lead us towards the correct direction of a storm however with at least 48 hours of an open window for change I still can't go all in.

If we are going to get the big one this seems to be the candidate.  Even though a decent amount of snow has fallen, nobody in the northeast has seen that huge storm this year.  That could change.  In doing so, and with my belief in patterns, it could be the final KO punch of the season allowing us time to get up and move towards spring.

A lot of talk in the weather community for the northeast over the last week centered around the storms we already received and the one over the weekend that we did not.  This one didn't sneak up on anybody.  It's been on the model runs for just as long as the other storms, but it got buried behind the wave of storms.  It's finally pushed it's way to the front of the line and without us being able to see it from a distance, is becoming the biggest wave of them all.  Yes, I'm fully aware that my last comparison of winter storms was to trains but storms can be waves too.  Okay?

So here is the fun part about watching and waiting for models to come in.  They bounce around all over the place.  The shift, like many this season, was to push the storm further north and west then what was being picked up.  The model this afternoon did just exactly that.  Had I decided to show that one it would have looked impressive.  As I was writing this the run from tonight updated.  I figured it would push it even further north and west.  It instead took it south and east.  This is why I don't do a lot of commenting on storms too far in advance.  It could have been a bad run.  It could have been a sign that maybe this thing does stay closer to the coast and the overreaction has already begun.  I don't know.

I've been accurate enough this season that while I will read and take notice of what others are saying, I also will not put much stock into it.  They have had just as many missteps as anybody else.  It's weather.  What do you expect.  Meet me here again tomorrow night and we can pick up the conversation. 

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