A Runner's World

When I signed up a week prior to the race held in Wyomissing on Sunday, I was not expecting to see snow on the ground.  That distinction would go to later races this year including the four-part series monthly races throughout winter.  My power was off from mid-afternoon until that night.  I prepared for the race anyway not knowing if it had been canceled or not.  When power finally came back on I went straight for my e-mail.  Race On!!

The driveway was already shoveled with my anticipation for leaving in the morning.  After all, nobody wants to go running after shoveling concrete for an hour.  I was a bit unsure about the turnout.  I knew a lot of the area was without power and anybody coming from a distance for the popular annual event would probably stay safely at home.  I parked in the area specified for the event about 45 minutes before the start.  Not a lot of cars.  It took a nice walk to get to the park and it wasn't long before you could see what October snow can do.

The heart of Wyomissing is filled with nice homes and tree lined streets.  And not rinky dink sized trees either.  As I turned on the road that led me to the park, branches were everywhere.  Snow was falling off limbs.  Yards were littered with leaves.  The road was a sloppy mess.  But in the distance there was a crowd.  We all stood in front of the large pavilion nestled in what I assume is a lovely park.  Forgive me if I can't recall much.  Most of the next 30 minutes was spent trying to keep warm and avoid the falling snow.  Both were hard to do.  At a crisp 30 degrees, surrounded by hundreds of trees, a hill and a pavilion, the sun never, and I mean never even came close to cracking through.  It did however keep people on their toes.  It was a constant barrage of snow from above.  Nothing that did damage or at least that I noticed.  Nobody was safe.

The course was now on its third route.  The first replaced by a friendlier road race due to the snow.  That changed race day when trees were blocking the course.  I headed up to the starting line in the middle of the pack.  It's fun to run but I don't need to be at the front sprinting around the first turn.  Besides, I knew a couple people from other activities that I talked to before the run.  If anything I knew this would be a bit of a challenge with parts of the road still covered in snow and leaves.  Then we were off. 

I love running in the cold.  It gives me the feeling I could run forever.  I did what is becoming a bit of a starting line tradition for me and started passing people by the bunches as we headed down the first road.  By the time we hit the first snow-free road, I had passed 50-100 people.  I had my sights set on more.  Throughout the next 2.5 miles I passed 10 or 15 more runners before heading towards the uphill climb when I was passed for the first time.  I had enjoyed the run even though the water from the snow made its way through my shoes.  I wasn't going for personal bests but just a solid and safe run.  I made my way up the extended incline back to the starting line.  No need to sprint in these conditions.  I finished a respectable 39th.  The only person to pass me finished in 40th. 

In total over 300 people showed up on a day that you would have expected in January.  It was the most I have ever run with.  And I know it won't keep that title for long.  You see, I'm not the only person who enjoys going out in less than ideal conditions.  There was also a half marathon in Gettysburg the same day that drew over 400 people and at least five races that Pretzel City Sports timed on the day of the snowstorm.

I have two more runs lined up for November.  One during the day in the farm country; the other at night in the city.  Both should draw about 200.  Then the series begins in December.  A series where runners came from six different states last year and my best 5k time would not even get me in the top 50.

In the meantime, you will see me out there along with my fellow adventurers.  When you pass, give us some room.  And remember, don't think we are crazy.  We laugh.   

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October Snowstorm

Here is the final map I will use as the snow has begun to fall here in Berks County.  If you averaged everything out I would expect 6-8 inches from Reading to Allentown.  Both maps seem to agree.

I will be adding pictures every hour or so of conditions and accumulation totals.  Afternoon should get much worse.  Latest model run for accumulation totals has places from Allentown following I-78 to New York receiving more than a foot.  Dad, good luck up on your perch.  Hopefully we keep power and trees stay strong.  Would not be shocked to see 15-18 inches up there.

Pictures to begin shortly...

10:00 a.m. 

1/2 an inch so far and starting to pick up in intensity.
Starting to stick on driveways and the edge of the road.  Must say I am pretty surprised already.  Didn't expect it to start sticking this soon.  Conditions certainly will be heading downhill.

11:00 a.m.



Snowing heavily.  Approaching two inches and by the picture below it has clearly started to stick to everything within the last hour.  Have to assume now that the roads will start to get poor much earlier than expected.

Don't want to post too many pictures on here so that it becomes hard to read.  I might start a slide-show.  Trees are really taking a pounding and I don't think it will be long before the one in front of the house goes.  Has all its leaves on the tree still.

Noon:  First plow of the year came through at exactly 12.  Three minutes later the road is covered again even with putting salt down.  Went out to measure on my back deck and down goes a large tree.  This is going to be a long day in terms of tree damage.  I'd expect millions of people to be without power by tonight.





1:15:  Still snowing at a solid rate but with dry air starting to invade and heavier precip west and east I don't see Reading getting the same totals as the others I've listed on the right side of the page.  Even Philadelphia is in really heavy bands.  Either way, I think we have lost power 4 or 5 times now so not sure how long I will be able to keep posting.  Sitting around four inches right now.  Highest reported total from the Mt. Holly station is (go figure) in Berks with Huff's Church (look it up) at 5.5 inches.

7:20 Final Update:  Power is back and the snow is tapering off.  NOAA totals for various areas even included my own town of Blandon.  30 minutes ago they reported 7 inches.  Don't expect to see much more.  If only somebody had predicted that at the beginning of the day at the top of this page.  It's been a long day and there is still some shoveling yet to do.  Because now that I checked my e-mail, my Sunday morning race is still on.

Should be a fun 32 degree run after a snowstorm in October.  Most of that sentence made very little sense.

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Winter Storm What??

I must admit I almost fell off the couch when I came home and turned on the weather.  All I wanted to see what the current temperature for my usual Thursday run.  Instead I was stunned.  Winter Storm Watch posted for my area for Saturday.  And all I wanted was a flurry!

I've had some time to reflect and remember a big piece of advice I gave myself last winter.  Never get excited until it is happening.  There is still 36 hours before this storm arrives.  At the moment expected accumulations for our area are shocking to say the least.  Especially considering that when I woke up this morning I believe the exact forecast for Saturday was few showers.  Fast forward and we are talking up to half a foot depending on location. 

However, I refuse to buy into this just yet.  A slight track west and the snow moves with it.  Doesn't mean we won't see anything but I have a feeling these numbers (below) will head quickly downhill by this time tomorrow.

Again, I am more amazed by that date in the corner.  October 27th.  And here we see the predictions of five to six inches across much of the area except 95 and suburbs.  It's almost like I was just talking about this.  I'm glad I got my winter prediction in the week of a potential snow event.  Never saw that one coming. 

To keep track of this progressing event, I will try and post the same snowfall forecast (from the National Weather Service by the way) tomorrow morning before work.  Honest opinion here.  I expect to see ones or twos in the Berks and Lehigh areas by tomorrow night.  Don't care.  I would take a coating in October.

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It's Official

Like first seeing my breath in the morning, another precursor to winter can be marked off the list.  First time the word snow has entered the forecast.  This year we can mark it down on October 26th as you can see below in the forecast from The Weather Channel for Allentown.

Now the last thing to cross off the list will be to actually see it snow.  Doesn't matter if it coats the ground, sticks to nothing or if it's a passing flake.  Snow is snow and I think many in our area will be seeing something before the month is out.

Got to admit the boys on the weather page I follow have been talking about this storm system for probably three weeks.  Most of the people on the page are very well informed amateur weather followers much like me.  That's an understatement.  They generally really know what they are talking about and have access to pro sites that cost money and all that good stuff.  Regardless of who is talking, I will never take anything seriously that far in advance.  Now that it appears things are coming together, I must say I am surprised.

Clearly this is not something to get excited about.  Unless the chance of snow in October gets you excited, then by all means jump up and down and enjoy this great weekend.  The first disturbance to pass tomorrow could provide some mixing in areas to the north of the valley.  Notice the 33 degree low and anything is possible.  Remember, it does not have to be 32 or colder to produce snow depending on temperatures above ground level.  The second system for Saturday is more up in the air as the track (go figure) will play a big role.  The unusual cold will be there.

In the perfect setup, the storm would cut through the area in a similar pattern to the one I discussed in my winter prediction.  Snow to the west, snow/mix in our area and a plain rain through the 95.  It would at least make me look somewhat smart early into the winter season.  Yeah, I can't believe it either.  Almost two full months before the official start and I already said winter season.

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Winter 2011-12

Are you prepared?  It won’t be long before the dreaded or perhaps favorite four-letter word appears on your local forecast.  In keeping with tradition, it is time to dedicate a segment of this blog to the 2011-12 winter forecast.

Over the past few winters the bigger cities and areas closer to the coast have been hit harder than interior portions of our area.  As backwards as it seems, the pattern set up to continue to allow storms to ride the coast and dump big snow totals on Philadelphia, New York City and areas along the coast.  It would appear that changes this winter.  I like to call this typical winter pattern, the north and west winter.  The logic is pretty simple on this one.  Watch how many times the local meteorologists single out points north and west of the city as getting the highest accumulations.  It happens if you watch the Baltimore, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, New York and probably even Boston stations.  It’s almost like it is its own geographical area.  But how far north and west will be the question.

Based on very little scientific evidence or any meteorological background, I think our area might not be far enough west for snow lovers.  What I do know is that we are in a weak La Nina heading into a stronger pattern.  While that does usually mean a snowier and colder winter in our area, it doesn't equate how much snowier.  Instead, we have to look at the jet stream that guides storms along a certain path.  Last year and even in years before last, the tracks took storms right up the coast hammering the big cities.  When the jet dips it also brings down cold air from Canada giving the perfect ingredients for snowstorms.  (Illustrated by me below)

This year the jet stream is forecast to dip through the central plains and make an upwards turn closer to the Ohio Valley.  This could make for a tricky forecast for our area.  On one hand cold air will be in place but at times there could be a moderate warming trend with highs 10-15 degrees above normal.  And while a La Nina pattern will keep things stormy, the air in front of the storm could warm up to just above freezing.  My theory?  I think areas closer to the PA-NJ border deal with ice problems this season.  (Below: Potential pattern this winter.)  Green line represents weak patterns that pushes smaller clipper type storms through the area.

My personal feel is that most of the action will be west of us or up towards the Pocono's.  The coastal areas do not favor well if you are looking for a lot of snow.  The I-95 area sets up for a battle between snow, ice and rain as do most of the suburbs.  The valley and parts of Berks will be very close to the snow.  But I can see places towards central PA seeing quite more than normal.  Here is my official call for this winter.  By the way, the locals have yet to make any predictions.  If I remember correctly they all basically keep it right at average even though Philly has been slammed recently.

 

Now here is a look at what Accuweather has predicted.  As I see other predictions being made I will be sure to post them unless they are worthless.  The NOAA's forecast came out today and their forecast for our area said something to the affect of "equal chance for warmer or cooler or wetter or drier conditions."  Thanks for the insight.  Leave it to Accuweather to put a map out there "early" and stick to it.  I like their style.  Let's see who ends up being closer.

And now they get a little more ballsie and decide to predict totals for random cities.  Notice they go above average for NY and Philadelphia for which I am going below.  I feel like the last contestant trying to bid on a scooter on The Price is Right.  The safe bet is to go one inch over what they predicted so I can walk away with the win.  But we don't play that way here.  I am going lower and that's the end of that.  Enjoy winter.

  

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Hitting Peak

It would only be fitting that one of the most colorful periods of the year would slowly lead into one of the darkest.  Regardless of personal preference for favorite seasons, almost everybody enjoys autumn.  There are plenty of things to enjoy.  The nighttime chill, humidity free days, brilliant colors, rustling leaves, the way the sun shines like a spotlight along rolling hills.  Even the weather is hardly ever an obstacle.  No sizzling heat or blistering cold.  Severe weather, tornadoes and hurricanes are all history.  It is that rare span of time when the weather is indeed almost perfect. 

The summer deluge has finally come to an end.  The staggering two-month rainfall totals have been updated on the right.  Really some astounding numbers in about a 60 day total.  Hard to believe we will see numbers like this again anytime soon.  And now October has fallen right in line with what we would typically expect.  We dealt with some warmth, breath-seeing cold and the occasional rainy day.  More importantly, we’ve probably experienced as much sunlight in the last week and a half as we did the previous month.

I’ve reached my own little peak as this is my 100^th post on LV Weather.  This project has certainly taken off far more than my previous hockey blogs of which at one point I had three that combined probably wouldn’t reach 100.  And speaking of that, you could add that to one of the reasons why this time of the year is so nice.  The blades are back and the ice cold as another season has begun.  That will help to contribute to my lack of posts for the time being.  Once winter gets going though, I expect to be filling these pages again full of useful information.  Until then maybe I can find a clever way to combine hockey and weather into the same post. 

Coming up later this week, I dive into the predictions for this upcoming winter.  Will it be anything like the rainy season we’ve had? 

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