Energy Transfer

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Normally I wouldn’t be on here talking about a storm I wrote about less than twelve hours ago, but we live along the northeast coast where dynamics of a storm are constantly changing.  It is clear to see what is happening.  If the Delhigh Valley wants to see a good accumulating snow, we need the coastal storm to take over quickly.  Yes, I said Delhigh.

A low last night was coming across Ohio towards Pennsylvania but weakening as it approached the mountains.  That energy from that low would be transferred to the coastal system that would intensify somewhere along the coast and move north.  Try counting all the different factors with this scenario.  I’ll name a few.  When does the transfer take place?  When does the initial low lose energy?  Where does the coastal low form?  What direction does it take?  Throw in temperature gradient and it’s another classic example of a mad guessing game.

This leads me to the following.  If I am wagering a guess I would knock our snow totals down quite a bit.  Enough to where places in and around Philadelphia won’t even see an inch.  I would also say the same for western areas of Chester and Berks.  The reasoning is simple.  The energy transfer is taking place right on top of us.  The initial system barely made it to us.  The secondary low is going to form too far north and east for our area to see much from that either.  The system basically jumped over our region.  What can you do?

The map is the latest run for total precipitation and clearly shows what I was talking about.  The lightest shade of blue is representative of anywhere from a tenth to a quarter inch of liquid.  Equations would say it would equal about 1 to 2 inches of snow.  But on either side of what I circled, the darker blues become larger and darker.  We are stuck in the convergence zone.  

  

The next run is updating right now.  I will post if there are any changes.  I don’t expect there to be.  Looks like a miss for all of us.  By the way I am keeping with my original totals.  That's what I said and that's what I stick with. 

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Light Event

First let's begin with the Wednesday event.  Looking back on it I think as poorly as the forecast might have perceived to be, I thought what happened was about right.  The only thing I had thought was we might end up with more snow than we did.  The trouble was, and I mentioned it in my post, we were directly in the battle zone, and you can't predict where that line will be.  The only thing you could do was sit back and watch.  And watch I did.

It started snowing around midday.  It became moderate but the winds made it appear as though it wasn't landing.  For once, nobody at work seemed to take any notice to the conditions as everybody kept going about their day.  By a little after three you could see the snow mixing with rain and sleet as I watched the wind billow the snow from the warehouse roof next door.  The mixing was the one thing I did not want as it was the only thing that could lead to bad roads.  I also knew the longer I stayed at work the better chance for all the moisture to turn into plain rain as temps rose slowly.  

When I came out to my car, it looked something like this.  It was basically a frozen box.  

I updated the totals on the right for the three PA locations to incorporate all the events we have had this year.  If you haven't been counting, we have had three accumulating snowfalls so far this "winter." Sorry Philadelphia, you have not been invited to the party.  The 4th snowfall of the season will change that tomorrow.

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It has been on the maps since practically last weekend.  In fact it also has never wavered much in that it said it would be a snowstorm for us everyday.  The only key would be the track.  Obviously we see now that we will indeed get a generous amount tomorrow.

This is one of those perfect systems for me.  It is a daytime event that I can enjoy in whatever capacity I feel.  Maybe go out for a jog or watch from the deck.  It will be light enough that it doesn't become a travel nightmare but enough that it sticks around on the ground for awhile.  Unless you work or have some place to go it's a sit-in-the-house kind of day.

What are we looking at?  I'm surprised by all the random numbers.  This is a pretty easy one to take a stab at for snow totals.  Every place I've seen is between 1 and 5 inches with some places maybe pushing out a bit more.  Every run including tonight increases the precipitation just a tad which is a good thing if you are looking for a little more.  Everybody has an advisory which is good to see.  In fact the entire state has an advisory except for the two counties in northwest PA by the lake.  When I say good to see the advisory I mean it's nice to see they haven't gone all crazy and thrown out watches and warnings (see Cincinnati).

If I was to throw out a guess, and I will, I say Reading and Allentown come in around 3.2 and 3.7 respectively.  For the record that is on the low side according to the advisory posted.  

Enjoy the fresh powder tomorrow.  Photos to follow as I will try to get pictures of all the events this winter.


WRITER'S NOTE:

Maybe it is me, but when looking at the snow totals for our area I keep thinking how small they are.  The truth of the matter is that with the snow that falls tomorrow Allentown and Reading will both be ahead of the average snowfall year to date.  I know seven or eight inches doesn't sound like much especially when that could come from one storm, but there are still three months of winter to go.  The next 10 days will all be cold until the model shows a warmup around January 10th.  All we need are some systems to move through.  It's not looking promising, but anything is something I will take.  There could even be a little light snow or flurries for New Year's Eve and day.   

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Tough Call

I was able to look at the latest short term model run and not much has changed.  If anything the run was slightly cooler than the previous runs.  Temperatures won't get out of the mid 30's and if the precipitation arrives on schedule it will start as frozen.  After that, who knows.

Even the weather service seems stumped.

I would bet a decent amount of money that our particular region whether it be the Lehigh or Delaware Valley is virtually always between the frozen or liquid side of the storm.  Look at this map.  Seriously look.  Every county outside of the Lehigh Valley and Berks has a winter watch including watches and warnings.  All the counties towards Philadelphia have a flood watch.  The middle is no man's land.  Rain, snow, ice, sleet, snow to ice, ice to rain, snow to rain, all rain?

I can't tell you either.  This is one where you have to literally sit there and watch.  However, within 16-22 hours of a storm there is no reason that Berks, Lehigh and Northampton should not at the very least have winter advisories.  I almost think the weather service is so confused they don't know what to do with this area.

Remember cold air sinks and warm air rises.  It is very possible that temperatures at the surface in certain valley locations will be cold enough to freeze precipitation.  This isn't really something than can be predicted.  The short term snow output suggests all places north of Reading receive snow and some places in Lehigh County push the five to six inch range.  Normally I don't put a lot into this but at some point you continue to use models that are reliable and that one pretty much nailed the last little snow.   

Part of my problem too is that I personally don't feel watches and warnings should be confined to an exact space.  Take Berks for example.  I have a hard time buying the fact that Schuylkill County to the north has a Winter Storm Warning, the highest tiered advisory, while a place a mile across the border has nothing.  Berks is a large county.  There could be a variety of weather from north to south and east to west.

Check this one out.  The great town of Hamburg in northern Berks has no watch, warning or advisory.  Port Clinton sits 3.5 miles to the north on the same route but is in Schuylkill County where the entire county is under a warning.  Here is the difference.

• Hamburg (From the weather service):  Hazardous weather is not expected at this time

• Port Clinton (From the weather service):  Hazardous travel due to ice and snow.  4 to 8 inches.

Really?  Three miles is all it takes?  It is when you only give warnings to an entire county instead of certain areas.  I could easily wake up tomorrow and see Berks in a winter storm warning.  I would be a little surprised unless they monitor the storm and something changes.  I could wake up and see the county has nothing.  In all honesty, and I will update this if I must, I'm very surprised there are no watches up for Berks and Lehigh already.  

Extending from the area I am looking at, please keep in mind this is technically a nor'easter in development.  The heaviest rain will be along the Jersey coast, and there will also be a very strong onshore wind.  That of course pushes water into areas that don't need to see any more water.  And by the maps it looks like the worst of it will be in the same areas that were hit hard by the Sandy storm.

UPDATE:  9:35


Somebody must have read my post as now the three counties in the middle ground have advisories until Thursday morning for a mixed bag of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain

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Christmas Eve

The brief snow is over.  I was slightly surprised as it was steady enough to stick quickly including on all secondary and main roads.  In the end it unofficially was record by me at about two inches.  Which means for here and many other places it will indeed be a White Christmas.

And some pictures:

All the pictures are somewhat interesting.  The first one taken at the top from my deck also happened to catch my breath which captured the artistic white streak on the top left.  The second one is looking out front with the snow falling, and the third catches the end of the snowfall while looking at the tree coated in the back.

The storm all featured a classic and key component to winter storms.  When it started to snow it was about 36 or 37.  Within an hour in was hovering around 33.  Once that snow starts to moisten the atmosphere the temps can really dip quickly.

Some final notes.  I took a look at the latest run for Wednesday and it pushed the warm air further west which would give us a better chance to see some rain.  If I am home in time tomorrow I can possibly get a post up to include the last model run I will see before the storm comes.

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Christmas Update

Everything looks like it will come together to give us at least a little taste of Christmas.  Models do not indicate any substantial precipitation after looking at the last model run before the snow starts to fall.  I hesitate to say it will be a "white Christmas."  By the exact definition we would need to have one inch of snow on the ground tomorrow.  Some places will have it and others will not.  For areas further north and east it is more likely that snow will stick since it will arrive at a later hour with temperatures cooler and the sun having set.  Either way, a little dusting or inch of snow for Christmas morning that should not affect commuting is something everybody can enjoy.

ABOVE - Models continue to add more elements that help people like me see what could be coming down the road.  This models shows projected snow totals up through Christmas morning.  The light green in Philadelphia means basically nothing.  The darker shade up through Bucks, Chester and Montgomery would be in the once inch range and the dark green is right around two inches north of Reading and throughout the Lehigh Valley.  If we ballpark the totals I would agree this is close.


SYSTEM 2:

The light snow tonight is nothing compared to what could be coming in late Wednesday and into Thursday.  I've tried not jumping on any models because they constantly change but we are within a 48-60 hour period when things start to come together.

Two lows have the chance to form, one in the midwest that would give places from Kansas to Michigan snow and another that would form closer to our area that would project to give central PA and NY large snow totals.  However like the past the system continues to waiver and the last run project our temps to be colder than previous runs.  It doesn't put us in line for a major snowstorm but it would suggest a mixed assortment of crap that would not be fun to deal with.  I will keep tracking this one closely as it has a potential to be nasty.

Below is the same short term model for snow amounts with both this system and the snow tonight factored in.

Can't get a much more defined cut off then that.  Virtually nothing south and east of Berks while northern parts of the county would be in the 8-10 range.  Keep in mind this is the total for both events through Thursday night.  Those orange/red and bright yellows would be between 13-17 inches.  Don't laugh either.  The way the tracks have been coming together it is looking more likely that many in our area will experience poor conditions.

More to come tomorrow.  

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Nasty Night

If you are a sound sleeper you might not make it through the night without waking up once or twice.  Lots of things to keep track of.  Let's go straight to the maps.

Tonight:

As expected the storm that dumped a good amount of snow on the Midwest is setting its target on the east coast with heavy rain and strong winds.  Behind it we get the rush of cold air from Canada and with that comes those prevalent northwest winds across the lake to give some heavy lake effect totals.

Line of winds moving through late tonight before the rain.  Yellow is around 35 mph while orange is closer to 45.

Heavy rains and possible thunder come through very early in the morning

There had been constant talk since the storm took shape earlier this week about some wrap around snow from cold air coming in from behind.  I don't see that happening at all.  Stray snow showers could be around anywhere between Friday night and Saturday morning while a blustery wind continues from the west.

Snow Zones:

All of western PA will see snow pile up from moisture behind the storm and lake effect.  The snow zones should also start to make out well after seeing very little so far this season in certain places.  While this large storm was affecting multiple big cities across the country nobody seemed to notice or really care about a heck of a little ocean storm in Maine.  Caribou, one of our watch spots picked up a solid 11.8 inches with other totals above 20.  Not bad, but not a big story.

Looking Ahead:

This is why you don't jump too far ahead.  In my last post I had said no white Christmas.  That's how it looked then, however chances are better now.  My next sentence was, it's safe to say we don't see any measurable snow at all in December.  I deleted it soon after I wrote it because there are too many factors.

All of the sudden a little low pressure system goes scooting through the Tennessee Valley and northward just enough to at least keep things interesting on Christmas.

Christmas morning light snow?  Possibility is there.  32 degree line clearly marked to the south through central NJ.

After Christmas:

Remember on Monday I said about a massive storm that was predicted to cut up towards Chicago?  Want to take a guess at what happened to that today?  It now follows a southern track and then makes the turn to go up the coast.  After that I'm not even going to guess.  Either way keep an eye out for somewhere between the 28th and 30th.

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No White Christmas

A week ago I made a post about a potential storm system to move through this week.  It wasn't looking very promising at the time and now it can be said that it doesn't look promising at all if you are looking for snow.

The storm comes charging in Thursday night into Friday.  However the track took this one far enough inland that there isn't even a debate on what we are going to see.  This one is going to be a rain event.  Like many before it and I'm sure a few after, there is also a chance of wrap around snow on the back end of the storm as well as a new wave of cold air to follow.

Diagram of storm with some added features below:

It is safe to say that we won't see a white Christmas this year.  We might not see measurable snow at all.  It's a bit disappointing but it was somewhat called for since most of the transitioning is to take place from January on.  We at least will see a cold Christmas with temps after this storm to drop into the 30's until the next chance for a storm after Christmas where we could end up on the warm side again.

We have to wait patiently though it can be difficult when you look at the national maps.  20 states have some sort of winter watches including cities like Portland, Salt Lake City, Denver and Des Moines as  multiple storms take shape in every area of the country.

And we get fog for at least one more day.  Monitoring the massive storm that is taking shape for after Christmas that the Weather Channel can give a stupid name.  Right now it cuts up towards Chicago.

If it makes you feel any better we have seen more snow than Rochester.  Lake effect snow season has been absolutely non-existent.  

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Watching One

December looks to be progressing like many predicted.  The first half of the month favored warmer than normal conditions before things transitioned back to average.  By the looks of things that is precisely what is going to happen.

If you are looking for another shot of warmer air I would stop.  The rest of the month is favoring average to below average temperatures with the exception of a day or two.  In simpler terms I would not anticipate hitting the 50's like we did today anytime real soon.

With a change of colder air filling in we also have to discuss the future possibility of storms that could produce wintry weather instead of the drizzle and fog we have been seeing.  The good news if you like snow is the NAO is strongly negative between the 18 and 26th.  I should say at least the 26th since that is as far as I am able to see.  Like before, this is the period to watch to see when storms form and cold air can rush in since they will have a better chance of running up the coast.

That is just what indeed could happen around the 19th.  Too far ahead?  Of course.  However, it is the only real system I have to look forward to over the next ten days so I at least have something to watch and track.

Now for the model runs which I only stick to the long range until we get within a week.

Take the image for what you will but we can offer a quick explanation.  This would be a nor'easter coming up the coast and intensifying (a bit too far for us) off the coast.  Dynamics are interesting since most us this would be rain.  These things can be hard to read but what you can do in winter is think of that dark blue line that cuts through Indiana and makes a return up through PA as an unscientific divider between below and above freezing temperatures.  New Jersey, New York City and Boston would be on the warmer side of this one.  This will show better in the next map. 

Now this is taken from a different map of strictly temperatures for right around the same period.  Remember blue is where you start to see low 30's.  Draw an imaginary line encompassing the blue and compare it to the thick blue line in the image above.  Pretty much spot on.

Either way it would still be a heck of a storm like all of these tend to be.  All we can do now is track the progress and check the models.

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Kickcast

Not a normal segment here but with the winds of winter approaching it makes Sunday football games at least somewhat more interesting.  This weekend has a little bit of everything. 

We begin with the great weather games, cities only, no matchups and positively nothing to do with indoor games.

-- Not going to see anything better than Tampa.  A projected high of 80 degrees, sunny skies and no wind, this game will have no interference from weather.

-- Jacksonville joins Tampa though there is a slight chance of showers.  When the temp is around 75, showers aren't a bad thing.

-- Carolina is in the same boat.  Chance of showers but temps near 70.

-- San Francisco rounds out the group.  A couple of days ago this would have been one of the worst places to play.  Sunday brings nothing but sun and comfortable temperatures.


If you are looking to see games played in less favorable conditions then you are in luck as those four places appear to be the only ones without any issues.

For the rest from early to late:

Cincy:  50's, scatted heavy showers and high humidity

Buffalo:  Cloudy, upper 30's with a nice breezy keeping it comfortably in the 20's

Pittsburgh:  Showers developing, upper 40's.

Cleveland:  Slight chance or showers, mid 40's.  Better than Pittsburgh.

D.C.:  50, showers in the area

Seattle:  Showers, low 40's.  Not ideal but exactly Seattle.

New York area:  Scattered showers, mid to low 40's


Now if you have errands to run or things to do tomorrow, relax and grab a beer for the Sunday night game.  What is better than seeing a divisional game at Lambeau?  How about seeing that game during a snowstorm?  Enjoy.  It won't be anything major and it might be slowly ending during the course of the game, but nonetheless there should be snow on the ground during at least the first half.

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A Look Ahead

The last time I posted about a week ago I said enjoy the warm weather while it lasted.  It is officially on its way out as we head into the weekend.  Now let's look at what else I said last week.

Weekend of the 8th shows system with rain and snow on backside:

Now:  A group of random lows hang around most of the weekend.  It wouldn't be a wash out but it would be unsteady enough to see sporadic showers at any time.

Also shows something on the 12th:

Now:  This could be classified as what was actually showing up for the weekend.  A strong cold front would push through late Monday into early Tuesday with rain and some snow for areas to the west.  

... And the 14th... low out to sea:

Now:  It is still there except it might be leaning towards the 15th and it looks as if there could be two lows that form with one to our north and west and the other off the Carolinas.



What should we expect?  I'm not concerned or worried or in my case excited about the next two systems.  My reasoning is pretty simple. 

Monday System

14th

19th

 

 

 

I switched over to the temperature map here that will also help explain.  First, a little more info.  The NAO is far less negative than it had previously been.  It is averaging just about neutral.  That could limit coastal storms however we are still seeing a return to an active pattern.

Now for the items above.  The chart is in Celsius with each different color representing a difference of two degrees Celsius.  Putting it simple, any type of blue is below 32.  Green to yellow starts moving above freezing and so on.  Probably can be figured out just by looking but don't jump to big conclusions.  It's not like a normal weather map where every shading is a difference of ten degrees.

First thing to look at is the L on the map.  It normally moves in a northeast direction on a diagonal line.  For snow you want to be on the west side of the system since the east side normally brings warm air up with the storm from the south.  The other side pulls down cold air from the north.  These are three different storms from the longer range runs.  Each time the low is around our area of latitude it is well west of us and in one case near Detroit.  That is the wrong side for snow.  Not to mention we are not even near the snow/rain line.  That yellow color is mid 40's.

What this will do though is continually usher in colder air behind each of these storms with very short shots of a little moderation.  It in the least keeps things interesting and could signal a busier pattern leading up to the new year.


MESSAGE FROM OUR WEATHER SERVICE

I came across this message from the National Weather Service that covers our region that I had to share.  This is straight from something they posted and was not changed.

There you have it.  Straight from the forecasters.  This winter looks to have either average, below average or above average temperatures and anywhere from above average to below average precipitation. 

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