Watching One

December looks to be progressing like many predicted.  The first half of the month favored warmer than normal conditions before things transitioned back to average.  By the looks of things that is precisely what is going to happen.

If you are looking for another shot of warmer air I would stop.  The rest of the month is favoring average to below average temperatures with the exception of a day or two.  In simpler terms I would not anticipate hitting the 50's like we did today anytime real soon.

With a change of colder air filling in we also have to discuss the future possibility of storms that could produce wintry weather instead of the drizzle and fog we have been seeing.  The good news if you like snow is the NAO is strongly negative between the 18 and 26th.  I should say at least the 26th since that is as far as I am able to see.  Like before, this is the period to watch to see when storms form and cold air can rush in since they will have a better chance of running up the coast.

That is just what indeed could happen around the 19th.  Too far ahead?  Of course.  However, it is the only real system I have to look forward to over the next ten days so I at least have something to watch and track.

Now for the model runs which I only stick to the long range until we get within a week.

Take the image for what you will but we can offer a quick explanation.  This would be a nor'easter coming up the coast and intensifying (a bit too far for us) off the coast.  Dynamics are interesting since most us this would be rain.  These things can be hard to read but what you can do in winter is think of that dark blue line that cuts through Indiana and makes a return up through PA as an unscientific divider between below and above freezing temperatures.  New Jersey, New York City and Boston would be on the warmer side of this one.  This will show better in the next map. 

Now this is taken from a different map of strictly temperatures for right around the same period.  Remember blue is where you start to see low 30's.  Draw an imaginary line encompassing the blue and compare it to the thick blue line in the image above.  Pretty much spot on.

Either way it would still be a heck of a storm like all of these tend to be.  All we can do now is track the progress and check the models.