Tough Call

I was able to look at the latest short term model run and not much has changed.  If anything the run was slightly cooler than the previous runs.  Temperatures won't get out of the mid 30's and if the precipitation arrives on schedule it will start as frozen.  After that, who knows.

Even the weather service seems stumped.

I would bet a decent amount of money that our particular region whether it be the Lehigh or Delaware Valley is virtually always between the frozen or liquid side of the storm.  Look at this map.  Seriously look.  Every county outside of the Lehigh Valley and Berks has a winter watch including watches and warnings.  All the counties towards Philadelphia have a flood watch.  The middle is no man's land.  Rain, snow, ice, sleet, snow to ice, ice to rain, snow to rain, all rain?

I can't tell you either.  This is one where you have to literally sit there and watch.  However, within 16-22 hours of a storm there is no reason that Berks, Lehigh and Northampton should not at the very least have winter advisories.  I almost think the weather service is so confused they don't know what to do with this area.

Remember cold air sinks and warm air rises.  It is very possible that temperatures at the surface in certain valley locations will be cold enough to freeze precipitation.  This isn't really something than can be predicted.  The short term snow output suggests all places north of Reading receive snow and some places in Lehigh County push the five to six inch range.  Normally I don't put a lot into this but at some point you continue to use models that are reliable and that one pretty much nailed the last little snow.   

Part of my problem too is that I personally don't feel watches and warnings should be confined to an exact space.  Take Berks for example.  I have a hard time buying the fact that Schuylkill County to the north has a Winter Storm Warning, the highest tiered advisory, while a place a mile across the border has nothing.  Berks is a large county.  There could be a variety of weather from north to south and east to west.

Check this one out.  The great town of Hamburg in northern Berks has no watch, warning or advisory.  Port Clinton sits 3.5 miles to the north on the same route but is in Schuylkill County where the entire county is under a warning.  Here is the difference.

• Hamburg (From the weather service):  Hazardous weather is not expected at this time

• Port Clinton (From the weather service):  Hazardous travel due to ice and snow.  4 to 8 inches.

Really?  Three miles is all it takes?  It is when you only give warnings to an entire county instead of certain areas.  I could easily wake up tomorrow and see Berks in a winter storm warning.  I would be a little surprised unless they monitor the storm and something changes.  I could wake up and see the county has nothing.  In all honesty, and I will update this if I must, I'm very surprised there are no watches up for Berks and Lehigh already.  

Extending from the area I am looking at, please keep in mind this is technically a nor'easter in development.  The heaviest rain will be along the Jersey coast, and there will also be a very strong onshore wind.  That of course pushes water into areas that don't need to see any more water.  And by the maps it looks like the worst of it will be in the same areas that were hit hard by the Sandy storm.

UPDATE:  9:35


Somebody must have read my post as now the three counties in the middle ground have advisories until Thursday morning for a mixed bag of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain