Christmas Update

Everything looks like it will come together to give us at least a little taste of Christmas.  Models do not indicate any substantial precipitation after looking at the last model run before the snow starts to fall.  I hesitate to say it will be a "white Christmas."  By the exact definition we would need to have one inch of snow on the ground tomorrow.  Some places will have it and others will not.  For areas further north and east it is more likely that snow will stick since it will arrive at a later hour with temperatures cooler and the sun having set.  Either way, a little dusting or inch of snow for Christmas morning that should not affect commuting is something everybody can enjoy.

ABOVE - Models continue to add more elements that help people like me see what could be coming down the road.  This models shows projected snow totals up through Christmas morning.  The light green in Philadelphia means basically nothing.  The darker shade up through Bucks, Chester and Montgomery would be in the once inch range and the dark green is right around two inches north of Reading and throughout the Lehigh Valley.  If we ballpark the totals I would agree this is close.


SYSTEM 2:

The light snow tonight is nothing compared to what could be coming in late Wednesday and into Thursday.  I've tried not jumping on any models because they constantly change but we are within a 48-60 hour period when things start to come together.

Two lows have the chance to form, one in the midwest that would give places from Kansas to Michigan snow and another that would form closer to our area that would project to give central PA and NY large snow totals.  However like the past the system continues to waiver and the last run project our temps to be colder than previous runs.  It doesn't put us in line for a major snowstorm but it would suggest a mixed assortment of crap that would not be fun to deal with.  I will keep tracking this one closely as it has a potential to be nasty.

Below is the same short term model for snow amounts with both this system and the snow tonight factored in.

Can't get a much more defined cut off then that.  Virtually nothing south and east of Berks while northern parts of the county would be in the 8-10 range.  Keep in mind this is the total for both events through Thursday night.  Those orange/red and bright yellows would be between 13-17 inches.  Don't laugh either.  The way the tracks have been coming together it is looking more likely that many in our area will experience poor conditions.

More to come tomorrow.