A Look Ahead

The last time I posted about a week ago I said enjoy the warm weather while it lasted.  It is officially on its way out as we head into the weekend.  Now let's look at what else I said last week.

Weekend of the 8th shows system with rain and snow on backside:

Now:  A group of random lows hang around most of the weekend.  It wouldn't be a wash out but it would be unsteady enough to see sporadic showers at any time.

Also shows something on the 12th:

Now:  This could be classified as what was actually showing up for the weekend.  A strong cold front would push through late Monday into early Tuesday with rain and some snow for areas to the west.  

... And the 14th... low out to sea:

Now:  It is still there except it might be leaning towards the 15th and it looks as if there could be two lows that form with one to our north and west and the other off the Carolinas.



What should we expect?  I'm not concerned or worried or in my case excited about the next two systems.  My reasoning is pretty simple. 

Monday System

14th

19th

 

 

 

I switched over to the temperature map here that will also help explain.  First, a little more info.  The NAO is far less negative than it had previously been.  It is averaging just about neutral.  That could limit coastal storms however we are still seeing a return to an active pattern.

Now for the items above.  The chart is in Celsius with each different color representing a difference of two degrees Celsius.  Putting it simple, any type of blue is below 32.  Green to yellow starts moving above freezing and so on.  Probably can be figured out just by looking but don't jump to big conclusions.  It's not like a normal weather map where every shading is a difference of ten degrees.

First thing to look at is the L on the map.  It normally moves in a northeast direction on a diagonal line.  For snow you want to be on the west side of the system since the east side normally brings warm air up with the storm from the south.  The other side pulls down cold air from the north.  These are three different storms from the longer range runs.  Each time the low is around our area of latitude it is well west of us and in one case near Detroit.  That is the wrong side for snow.  Not to mention we are not even near the snow/rain line.  That yellow color is mid 40's.

What this will do though is continually usher in colder air behind each of these storms with very short shots of a little moderation.  It in the least keeps things interesting and could signal a busier pattern leading up to the new year.


MESSAGE FROM OUR WEATHER SERVICE

I came across this message from the National Weather Service that covers our region that I had to share.  This is straight from something they posted and was not changed.

There you have it.  Straight from the forecasters.  This winter looks to have either average, below average or above average temperatures and anywhere from above average to below average precipitation.