Quick Hit

Did anybody notice the snow this morning?  I refer to mainly anybody in the Reading area.  So much for some passing snow showers. 

As we get ready to say goodbye to December, we might not be able to call it a month to remember but it was one that I will give a solid A grade to.  It looks like measurable snow is done with for the rest of the month.  However the way this month went I'm not sure we can even say that at this point.  Allentown came in officially with over 15 inches for the month.  It doesn't sound like a lot.  It has more to do with the frequent nature of the snow.

After today, I will use Reading as an example.  Unofficially or officially depending on how serious you take my running total for the city, Reading is just under 12 inches for the month.  A solid showing considering there is another two and a half months of good snow producing season left.  We should be on our way to a higher than average total snowfall especially if the coastal storms get going.  So far it's been quiet on that front.  Not so quiet on the quick morning snows which seem to consistently hit at rush hour.

From December 8th to December 17th measurable snow was reported five days.  In the week from the 8th on a Sunday to the 14th on a Saturday it literally snowed every other day.  The average high in that span of 10 days was 32 degrees.  The average high in that time span would normally be 42.  By the weekend the highs in Reading were 59 and 68 and another 59 on Monday.  The following day on Christmas Eve a quick snow squall laid down a measurable coating for Reading.  Christmas the high hit 29.  Another full ten degrees below the average. 

If you are still following that brings us to today.  The call going in was for a coating of snow for the region due to a passing front.  It would have been accurate if at the end they said a coating for all (except Berks County).  It was bad enough the Reading paper had to do an article about it. 

Now listen I know this is what we call the northern part of the United States and we clearly have seen and driven in snow before.  The issue once again like the Philadelphia snowstorm earlier in the month is that it was completely, as stated above, unexpected.  A lot of people don't follow the weather.  They really don't follow it when nothing is supposedly coming in the morning.  They really really don't follow it on Christmas when people are gathered around kitchen tables or holiday trees.  So it shouldn't be a surprise to see headlines like this or the following image.

Once again the turnpike near Morgantown became the scene of early morning chaos.  As you can see from the picture and in the description this accident involved 35 vehicles after the snow came down hard and fast this morning.  The lanes were closed from 8 in the morning to 5 in the afternoon.

Here is how little of an idea I had about this and I follow weather.  I had some business to take care of this morning so as I woke and prepared for the day by getting on the computer and turning on a little Premier League action I never once bothered looking outside.  It took a phone call for me to open the blinds to see everything covered and snow falling at the size and intensity as shown in the first picture.  I checked the radar and saw a fairly heavy but narrow band going across the region.  The band stretched throughout all of eastern PA and moved from west to east.  Alright, put the travel plans on hold for a bit. 

A coating my ass.  The tire tracks on the streets in the complex showed at least a few inches of depth.  I headed north towards the Lehigh Valley after I knew the snow had passed.  I can also report as many others probably can (see accident above and the 44 car accident on I-78 in Berks) that I never once saw a plow or salt truck.  Not even at my complex who have things cleared the second it starts accumulating.  Even they were sitting at home in their pajamas with the rest of the crews.  As I headed north towards the Lehigh Valley it wasn't long before the difference was very noticeable.  As I approached Allentown you could tell the roads were never touched with a plow.  The grass was still poking out of lawns.  Even side streets were not covered.  The same band moved through the whole region yet most saw nothing.

The sun even came out for most of the day and melted what had fallen in Allentown.  I returned home in the late afternoon and everything still covered here.  So I checked the totals.

Allentown:  0.4 inches
Philadelphia:  Trace

Reading at last report was at 2.5.  Many other towns were over two as well.  No other town in a different eastern PA county reported more than 1.8.  That's how tight the heavy gradient of snow was.

Here were some of the Reading Eagle quotes:

  "We were expecting some snow, but only about a coating," he said. "Instead we got an inch or two in a three-hour time frame. I think it was the fact that it came down a lot quicker and harder over a shorter period of time than we expected."

 Today's forecast was for a passing snow shower during the day, so many were caught off-guard by the intensity and duration of the snowfall.

Allentown and Philadelphia only received the expected coating.

Another messy December day with snow.  Another morning commute turned nightmare.  Another swing and a miss for the weather community.  Sometimes it's better to simply stay off the roads.  Unless you work for PennDot.  You folks should probably be out there. 

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And Again

They keep on coming.  Nor'easter number one is in the books and by all accounts I believe we can mark this down as a success for predictions.  The consensus was generally somewhere between 3 and 10 inches of snow for Berks and Lehigh.  It might seem like a big range but everybody agreed the gradient for snowfall was going to be tight.  In the end it was.

Here is a look at the results.

 

Normally this year I was showing a map of eastern PA that labeled reported snowfall totals.  This time I went with the color coded map.  It differentiates between the snow totals better.  The darker blue (Berks) indicates ranges from 4-6 inches.  The darker pink is 6-8.  The brighter the pink color the higher the totals were.  

The predictions were not dead on accurate but close enough to consider this a job well done.  National media, local media and weather groups all kept acceptable ranges including my pinpoint guess of 5-6 inches.  Allentown officially came in at 6.8.  Reading has no official total, and I caution to use any total I see for the rest of the season at this point.  The best we can do is use the total from a trained spotter in Wyomissing at 5.5 inches.  

There were some mistakes.  The southern region as shown above could not muster up much of anything which was expected though moisture wasn't as plentiful.  Philadelphia (all totals from the airport) came in at just 0.3 inches.  Ice was hit or miss.  I didn't go out looking so I don't know where the line of ice made it.  It wasn't up here as the snow transitioned to sleet as temperatures dropped.  Yes, dropped.  And you want to be a meteorologist.

Round 17

Maybe we aren't quite to that number, but it feels like it.  No time to sit around and discuss this past one as two days later we look towards another measurable snow.  Trust me enjoy this now because at some point we will be sitting around for two weeks in the middle of January waiting for a pattern like this to come.

This snow is the result of a clipper system moving on by.  Of course things can't be that simple.  Once it gets near the coast it picks up a little energy which will help to intensify the snow.  Everything has trended to keep the higher amount of snow to the north.  So Allentown is more likely to see more than Reading and substitute any other town north of any other town that is to the south.  

Once again the air is very cold which only enhances snowfall totals.  With clippers you can't get a ton out of them anyway.  The bad news is for the second straight Tuesday the morning drive could be a concern.  The good news is this snow is going to be very fluffy.  

Our advisory states 2-4 inches.  I'll take the low end of that for most of Berks especially from Reading on southward.  Lehigh Valley is in a better position to get closer to the 4 mark.  If I'm forced to make a call I say the Reading area struggles to hit two inches.  Allentown is in a 2-3 swath.  Looks like the parade of snow gets derailed after this one. 

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Lake Effect

As I finished up my last post and headed to the NWS site I noticed much of central PA has had winter watches posted.  I would expect the same for much of our area by mid morning tomorrow.

Also of note are the updated snow totals from the Tuesday event.  Allentown did well.  Reading tries.  Logically there would be another report since there was accumulating snow this morning in most places.  I know Allentown already reported something and Reading should have tallied close to a half inch as there was a decent amount of snow on the ground when I woke up and was snowing quite hard as I left.  We will see what happens.  I will guess they report nothing.

I promised snow totals from the lakes and dagnabbit I deliver.  Again only places that report show up on the map.  I saw two areas that reported 44 inches.

I turned off the color shading that normally appears indicating varying results.  Numbers are all you need to see here.  This is the last 48 hours.

Notice Syracuse at the bottom of the map and the reports in that area.  Head north on 81 to the first yellow number in Pulaski at 14 inches.  For comparison that is like driving from Reading to Allentown.  The plateau region numbers are the areas like 20, 25, 28 and 35.  Those are the ares that generally see 200-300 inches of snow.  There are also very few people that live there.

Hey just for fun take a look at what the area is expecting from tonight into tomorrow. 

There you go.  That's how to make a call.  Anywhere from 6 to 18 inches depending on where the bands lay down the heaviest.  In three days somebody will get 60 inches of snow.  Now that's lake living.

Here is something amusing.  All our talk about the storm on Saturday will also be moving into this region of New York.  Except they will expect around 3-6 inches which as you can see will be like getting a day off from the lake machine.

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Cooking with Weather

It's the holiday season.  You plan on baking delicious chocolate chip cookies.  The recipe is in front of you.  All the ingredients are here.  You slide them in the over and set the timer.  When the timer goes off you remove the tray to see the final results.

You're expecting this.

Instead you got this.

So what happened?  It could have been array of issues.  Maybe the cookies were too thin or the oven too warm.  An unforeseen circumstance that changed the outcome.  Perhaps next time you keep a watchful eye and adjust as you go throughout the baking process.

This is the same principle reminiscent of predicting winter weather in the northeast.  Except there are far more variables and you have no control.  I can tell you what the ingredients are and show you the recipe.  I can even give you an idea of what you should expect at the end.  But I can't give you an outcome until it unfolds.

I'm not sure when, where or who termed the phrase nowcasting but it really should be the main term used for predicting our winter events.  It will never happen because somebody needs to be the first to throw out a prediction 48 hours ahead of the storm.  It would be better if they straight up said it was an idea of what to expect and not a final outcome.  Like in my cooking example, they are giving you an idea of what should happen with all the ingredients in play as long as the recipe holds true.

Winter storms have too many dynamics.  I can't say it enough.  All you have to do is look at Sunday.  My gripe isn't that the forecast was inaccurate.  My problem is that too many times channels or sites want to go on the defensive as soon as they are wrong and praise themselves as the first ones to say something when they are right.  Shut up.  If you were wrong say it and explain what happened.  If you were right give a summary and move on.  This is a science that is challenging at it's best.  Give simple explanations and room to make adjustments as storms move in.  It's up to the intellect of the people watching to understand things can change quickly and to keep monitoring weather sites for updated information as needed.

Here we go with another one of the wonderful storm examples that only the east coast can bring you.  Heading into this weekend we have a low moving west to east that will transfer energy to a low off the coast.  Where and when that transition occurs plays a huge part in our weather.

It's going to snow.  That's not a question with these types of events because moisture is coming from both directions.  We also have plenty of cold air this time.  The question really turns into how much.  From everything I've seen I think everybody is in the ballpark so far.  I've seen (for Berks and Lehigh) anywhere from 3 to 8 inches.  Sure some people will bitch that it's quite a large range, but we don't live in Alabama where four inches is going to make a big difference compared to seven.  I also agree that the snow ratios could be a bit higher than normal.  Again that is a benefit of this cold air hanging over us for three straight days - which mind you will cause the snow to stick virtually right away.

As for me I think I've been on the same boat for the past few days.  I think the transfer of energy occurs too far from us and also keeps the heaviest moisture closer towards the coast where it will be rain or a rainy mix anyway.  I also think we are looking at all snow from Reading to Allentown and not any ice.

With all these ingredients my recipe for total snowfall would stand around five or six inches for most areas as of right now.  A change in anything and we could end up with burned cookies.  If you dislike snow that might mean 10 inches or if you like it maybe only 1.

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One for Three

Finally some success.  With a second snowfall in three days it appeared this one would be easier to predict.  It was.  Most of the entire area fell in the two to five inch range as the fast moving storm system came in this morning and left a little after lunch.

Hopefully you didn't follow this minor storm on the national 24 hour channel designed to cover weather.  They gave this storm the same name as they gave the one from Sunday.  If it sounds confusing it's because it is.  If you can't figure out what they are doing don't worry as neither can they.

Snow started around the 6 a.m. mark and quickly started to accumulate for the morning drive.  You know it's going to be a pain when you start out on the first road and traffic is going 15 mph.  Like I said before the worst time to be out is at the initial onset of the snow.  The roads quickly get covered in a thin layer that compacts as cars continue to drive over the coating causing roads to instantly become more like ice.  Also the plows are just getting ready to get out to start treating the roads now covered.  Needless to say it was slow going as the timing hit at an unfortunate time.

I must say I was very pleased to notice all drivers around me throughout the commute were very cautious and kept plenty of distance.  The speed was constantly between 15 and 25 without anybody looking to pass or following too closely for conditions.  Slow, simple and safe drive.  Normally the area around route 73 in Blandon is busy on a normal day, but I can honestly say even when traffic has been redirected because of an accident I've never seen as long of a line of traffic in that area.  Can't imagine how long it took people heading south. 

Quick shot of snow that has a good chance of sticking around for awhile with temperatures struggling to get to 30.  As of last check Philadelphia did not get enough to reach a foot but now have double digits.  Allentown checked in at a solid 4.7 and Reading doesn't ever do anything so I will find the best number I can.

As always (this year) here is a map of local totals.  Be mindful that these totals are compiled by the NWS from people reporting snow totals who are either trained spotters, public reports or weather offices.  Basically it's not always going to be completely accurate and some reports were taken before the storm was over.  Example:  Notice the .5 near Reading which was taken at 7 this morning

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The Week Ahead:

Locally our focus shifts to the storm system on Saturday.  Thankfully this one is on a weekend for those of us who don't need to head out anywhere.  No way to call this one yet.  We once again are set to be in a battle zone right now between snow, ice and rain.  The one good thing for those who like a snowstorm is cold air will dominate the rest of the week so getting that air to move out is going to be a challenge.  All I'm hinting at is even if the warm air wins out in the end, we could see a steady snowfall at the beginning.

Between now and then we are quiet outside of the unusually cold air.  Sounds like a running pattern so far.  We had one in November and now another in December.  However, the winds are sweeping across the lakes from tonight into Thursday giving the normal areas chances at huge snows.  I will try to get a similar map as the one above for the areas that get hit over the next 48 hours or so.  Snow totals in the plateau region of New York should hit 40 inches.  My goal is to show how drastic a few miles can be when it comes to lake effect.

Look for the lake effect snow totals and an update on the Saturday storm in a post Thursday night.

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Zero For Two

Nothing shows the complexity and difficulty in predicting winter storms in our area than what we saw this weekend.  Virtually nothing went as predicted.

We can start with Friday.  Model indications showed that rain pushing through the area could change to snow as a push of cold air followed behind the precipitation.  Amounts anywhere from one to six inches were forecast for the area.  I was hesitant from the beginning since it is uncommon for our area to ever see that back end snow.  But the models showed accumulating snow so forecasters ran with it.  What ended up happening?  The precip moved though quickly.  The cold air came rushing in.  But by that time the rain was gone.  Not only did we see no snow, hardly any part of eastern PA did.  As one local weather site said Saturday morning avoiding lenghty reasoning, "let's move on."

It's easier to move on when you get a second chance at making an accurate forecast for a new winter storm 24 hours later.  The winter weather advisories were posted.  The timing and amounts were set.  Then all of the sudden a problem.  For most it probably began when the Eagles game started.  The prediction was for light snow or sleet to begin some time in the second half.  There was no indication of a heavy snowstorm at 1:00.  Advisories changed to warnings.  An inch or two went to 6-8 or even 10.  Areas along the Mason-Dixon line through New Jersey were in heavy banding.  Talk about being unprepared.

I followed the radar closely also using the PA traffic cams to monitor the progression.  Eventually the snow started in Berks from south to north.  It was never anything close to what areas to the south received.  By the way, a note to all.  Conditions tend to be at their worst at the onset of a storm.  For one the little bit of snow that sticks at the beginning makes the road more slippery than when driving on packed snow.  Two, more people tend to be out either trying to beat the storm or unaware there was a storm coming.  All you have to do is look at the Morgantown incident to understand it doesn't take much.

Not a great start to the season for those who predicted low snowfall totals for Philadelphia (ABC).  In the first snow of the season Philadelphia already passed their total for all of last season with 8.6 inches.  Other nearby areas had over a foot.  Meanwhile Allentown reported 1.3 and Reading 1.8.  If Philadelphia can squeeze out 3.5 inches tomorrow they will be over a foot for the season with 10 days left before winter officially starts.  I say they get it.

Below are some of those crazy totals for Berks and Lehigh.  Numbers increase as you head south.

To top off the storm, the second batch that was to move in overnight to give Lehigh and Berks a possible 1-3 more inches including ice ended up moving further east than originally expected giving the area only a coating of ice.

This was an ultimate fail in forecasting.  It shows than neither human or computer knows what will happen.  We can only take a best guess.  And if we rely mainly on models to predict we don't really need meteorologists.

Thanks to mother nature we all get a third chance at saving face with yet another snowfall tomorrow.  This one has fewer dynamics and colder air which should benefit the forecasting side.  I am a pattern guy when it comes to weather.  It all works in patterns.  I could have written this last night when others said models showed the heaviest snow moving across our region and not the Delaware Valley.  Funny how they readjusted again this evening.  The pattern is set that the heaviest snow should fall in the same area that got it yesterday so that's what I'm going with.  A general two to five inches for all would be a reasonable guess.  However I'm not so sure this thing doesn't even move further to the east so that certain sections of our area get little to nothing.  Advisories say 2-4 for most of us and are posted for counties north and west of the area as well.  They are the professionals.  Also of note could see high ratio snow tomorrow in certain areas.  Eight inches not out of the question for some locales.
 

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Storm # 2

If you follow the Weather Channel you would notice a very large winter storm moving across the northern portions of the country which the station has named for the third time this year.  The practice of doing so is stupid and only recognized by that particular station.  By the time January begins they could be half way through the alphabet cause guess what?  It's winter.  The county sees a lot of storms and snow. 

Let's rewind a bit.  The pre-Thanksgiving day storm turned out to be more of a dud than anything else.  Most local areas received some snowfall at the very tale end.  In some areas, especially elevated, the snow stuck to the grass.  More surprising was the areas that were in line to receive hefty totals received far less than expected.  With it being the holiday I didn't get a chance to post any snowfall total maps.  In this case it wasn't really worth it anyway.  That could be changing.

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Enter storm # 2 for the northeast or named storm four if you follow TWC unless they say it's the same energy as the current storm which it technically might be but is developing another area of low pressure to the south to cut across the southeast before making it's way up towards our area.  But I mean with those strict storm name characteristics they have I'm sure we will get a clearer answer.  Sorry if it seems like I'm continually making fun of the name thing, but I'm going to continually make fun of the name thing.  Any who.   

Winter storm watches are already posted for parts of Texas and much of Oklahoma.  I'm sure Dallas will once again see a watch or warning shortly as the cold air has plunged southward from Canada.  Like really cold air.  The high in Oklahoma City on Friday is forecast to be 24 with a low of 10.  Don't fear, the weekend should be even colder.  Either way the south is getting hit again and there should be a swath of ice and snow that extend north and east as the week progresses.  For us the timing looks to be Sunday.  Looks to be.

Out ahead of the storm we sit in milder temperatures which keeps most if not all the precip in the form of rain.  Once again we could see some snow/sleet on the backside however I think that's unlikely.  However, like many times in winter the storm will help bring in cold air after it passes through which sets us up for part two.  This would be in the Sunday/Monday time frame.

A wedge of moisture slides north into our area as high pressure sits over top of us.  Now normally high pressure blocks areas of low pressure.  It also tends to keep the cold air in place.  The low pressure eventually overtakes the area.  The question instead might be does the cold air hold on or how long does it hold on.  This potential snow has been on the models since the weekend.  And all the models.  Being that long away and us being in the tri-state triangle where winter storms disappear, I figured I wouldn't mention anything quite yet.  But now we can at least start tracking this with a little more curiosity.

Too many questions yet with this one.  Go figure, a battle between cold air and warm air in our area will be the determining factor.  What a shock.  Either way this does have the possibility of being a measurable, shoveable or perhaps plowable snow for our region.  As usual, best chances to the north and west of the big cities.


NOTES:


In case anybody is keeping track, November was two degrees below normal (Reading) and three in Allentown. 

Meteorological winter began on December 1st.  Astronomical winter begins December 21st.  If you live in Montana, Wyoming, Minnesota, North Dakota, Maine, UP of Michigan, higher elevations of the Rockies, parts of the Cascades, Alaska, areas along the Great Lakes or countless other areas you might already be two months in.

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Lake Effect

In case anybody didn't notice it was quite cold this weekend.  Especially on Sunday.  The winds were not helping either.  With that steady northerly wind we also saw our first solid lake effect snowfall occur for some of our favorite snowy city zones.  This could only be the beginning of a busy opening start to the winter season.

This year I'd like to really take some extra time to look at snow storms or lake effect snow events that either have an impact on our weather locally or the weather of the areas in the snow zones or other parts of the region.  Basically I plan on making a post about almost every event that is at least worthy of a story.

Let's begin with the first from this weekend.  Oddly enough I found it interesting.

First I will show the warnings posted from Saturday morning for the central New York region.  The dark blue shows areas with a lake effect warning and the lighter blue an advisory.

What I find interesting about this is you see a group of four counties shaded with a warning.  None of them touch the lake meanwhile many surrounding counties including ones closer to the lake only see an advisory.  It's a clear indication of wind direction to see a sharp northerly to north easterly wind blowing across the lake.  The more intriguing factor is the centralized location.  You can thank a strong wind and the dynamics of lake effect snow for that.

Lake effect snow can travel and pile up miles away from the lake it originally comes from.  This particular event saw a wind direction not entirely common.  That made the distance the fetch had to work with noticeably smaller than a west to east wind that can span hundreds of miles across.  It also pushed the clouds and moisture further inland where it was deposited instead of right at the coast.  Continuing south the elevation slowly begins to rise which can also lead to higher snow totals due to lifting. 

A little different to kick off the season.  Made it interesting for me to watch unfold.  It didn't turn out to be quite as bad as I think some thought it could be.  Here is a map of the total snowfall for various places in Onondaga County (home to Syracuse) for the weekend.

 

Like most cities, the snowfall for Syracuse is recorded at the airport.  Unlike most cities the snowfall totals from town to town in this area can vary greatly.  The 6.0 is the recording from the airport which is north of downtown.  The winner, at least for the county, was the town of Skaneateles with 10 inches that sits on the northern section of the Finger Lake of the same name.

And by the way, the towns right along the shores like Oswego, who normally get pounded received less than an inch.  Weather can be funny.

Snow Zones 11-23 to 11-24

Syracuse:  6.7 inches

Johnstown:  2.5 inches

Burlington:  2.4 inches

ROUND 2

The Thanksgiving Eve storm won't be a big deal for our area in terms of wintry weather.  There could be some though probably nothing amounting to more than an inch either at the start or the end.  The areas to our west and north will not be so lucky or really lucky depending on who you talk to.

At the time of this post Johnstown currently is under a winter storm warning, Syracuse a watch and Burlington an advisory.  It's all about timing for when the weather service issues certain warning levels.  I would assume Syracuse will be changed to a warning.  Burlington might be a bit too far east for the bulk of this one which leaves the battle between Johnstown and Syracuse.  Syracuse has a slight edge in positioning, but Johnstown has some funky terrain.  Don't count them out.

A full report following the storm for our area and our friends will be done by the end of the week.

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Bring in the Chill

When we struggled to hit 40 last week it appeared that would be the coldest air mass of November.  When we saw our first snowflakes I said enjoy it now because you might not see it again for awhile.  Well hold up my friends.  Things change.

Cold air will be ushered in by the end of the weekend and into next week.  The likes of temperatures more associated with January than November.  If we look at the forecasted highs from this Sunday through next week the average high (38) and low (23) would be the exact equivalent to the average temperature during the first week of January.  And as far as not seeing a snowflake again for awhile, it becomes more of a question of where than when.  Don't be too surprised.  The last seven days of last November were also below normal in temperature and 1.8 inches of snow fell on the 27th.

The northeast has remained untouched from any substantial snowfall so far.  It shouldn't be surprising.  We haven't even made it three weeks into November yet.  The cold air coming from Canada will change that quickly.  The winds will kick start the lake effect snow machine for many of the typical areas along the lakes.  A storm around Thanksgiving will also have to be watched to determine if interior or higher elevated areas of our region see snowfall. 

Speaking of seeing snowfall we need to keep seeing those snowfall predictions come in before we actually start measuring.  The gang over at Eastern PA weather wrote up a lengthy piece about what they expect this winter.  In a nutshell it again mimics what we continue to see with other predictions in that the bulk of the snow falls in the "second half"of winter.  I have to point out that the term second half is relative to that of a weather forecaster.  I in no way consider winter to begin on the actual date the calendar says so.  Meteorological winter begins the first day of December and runs through February.  In our area I would consider the period of winter to be roughly between November 15th and March 15th.  So second half refers to the time frame from mid January and on.

EPA totals will be added to the right.  Fox and CBS also recently made their predictions too.  That should encompass all of the media outlets locally.  I can probably find a few others that made picks.  Now we spend the season following the action.

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More Predictions

This year I am looking for any and all weather outlets to make predictions on local snowfall.  Since my last post two more predictions have been made.  Let's take a brief look.

John Bolaris, still writing for philly.com like last season, comes in with his prediction.  Not surprisingly he went with a strong number of 30-40 inches for the city.  Bolaris did not give any numbers for the Lehigh Valley or Reading areas.  Bolaris like most everybody else sees a strong middle to end of the winter season and is banking on chances of seeing big totals with few storms.  I like his style even though he sometimes can get a bit strange. 

After the first two Philadelphia predictions came in below average I was pleasantly surprised with Bolaris taking the higher route.  He wasn't the only one thinking that way.  Hurricane Schwartz, besides having the best first name for a weather forecaster ever, has come out with his prediction.  Alright so maybe that isn't his actual name.  Either way, Schwartz is still making predictions over at NBC even though the market has moved towards the sexy female (See Sheena Parveen).  His prediction had a similar tone to that of Bolaris and he becomes the second to go substantially over the average calling for 30-35 inches for the city.  Again, no other predictions made.

Out of 4 predictions for Philadelphia, two have been below average and two have been above.  So far I am liking these predictions since nobody has taken the actual average.  Still waiting on CBS and FOX.  I know the folks at Eastern PA weather are making their predictions tomorrow so throw them into the mix.  I hope to find a few others if possible.

TROPICS


Even though the tropical season in the Atlantic is not technically over, it is.  This year was particularly quiet.  Actually it was extremely inactive.  Almost no storms hit the U.S. coast and none that did make a landfall were hurricanes.  It's like everything else in weather.  You have some years with little to nothing and others with more than you care to see.  That's how weather works.

The eastern side of the globe has not been as lucky.  Normally they experience more tropical systems anyway but the storm to hit the Philippines over the weekend was a monster.  Stories have made the front of my daily newspaper every day so far.  The Weather Channel and CNN weren't stationed on the beaches reporting on the winds and surge from one of the strongest tropical storms to date.  At least I don't think they were there.  It's hard to grasp the force of the storm when all that is left are the ruins of homes, building and cities that we had no knowledge about to begin with anyway.  I like geography.  I like to think I have a more than basic knowledge about the rest of the world.  I had never heard of Tacloban before.  I know it real well now.  The pictures and stories coming out from this area are intense.  It makes me look back at Katrina and think how much worse it could have been if we didn't have as many resources available to us as we do.

It's still undetermined how many people were killed during the storm.  They might never know the total.  It also remains to be seen how many who made it through the storm but won't survive because of injuries that can't be taken care of or the lack of food that still plagues the region days after the storm.  

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First Flakes

Mark it on your calendar.  November 12, 2013 or 11-12-13 for those who have an interest in sequential calendar numbers.  It was the first sign of snow for the new winter season.  Quite frankly I don't know the average date for first snowfall for the area but I would tend to think it's a bit earlier than normal by a week or two.  Regardless, the snow was not measurable for most.  All reports came in below one inch.

Normally I travel to find the first flakes of the year.  It wasn't the case this time as a cold front brought in a line of snow showers for all of the region.  It started in Reading between 7 and 7:30 this morning and didn't last long.  Always nice to see the first snow of the year which also is my last check mark on my sheet that winter is here.  Even though we saw our first snow, it could be awhile before we see another.

Like many other things these days the model site that I used in the past is now professional done and requires a membership and fee.  Can't say I blame the guy for changing it.  But I'm not paying.  So it's back to finding random maps and the scarce amount of free model runs floating around somewhere in the internet universe.  Maybe it is better to stay away from those anyway.  If you would have dove in to the world of model forecasting last week you would have seen multiple stories of the snowstorm about to hit the east.  That's because one model trended towards a coastal storm taking a path up along the eastern states in some capacity.  That storm ended up going out to sea.  The snow shower we got was from a front.  That's why you can't make accurate predictions a week before.  It's why I never mentioned a word.

The rest of November looks to have an up and down pattern not that abnormal for the month.  It shouldn't be as wacky as the first half where we've had a high of 73 in Reading and a projected high of 38 tomorrow.  Sunday through Tuesday looks like some chances for rain and then another shot next weekend.  Both are associated with warmer air which is as per usual.  Temps fall behind the rain.  Nothing at this time shows any indication of the type of cold we are seeing now for the rest of the month.


KEEPING TRACK

I am going to continue to find as many local winter weather predictions as I can and post them on the right side.  The order will be in which the prediction was made from first to last.  ABC was the first major news channel to throw their prediction out and to their credit they went with a number below normal. 

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Freezing Point

With a Frost Advisory in place for most of the area it could be the first time since April 21 that we fall to 32 degrees or below in Reading and May 14 in Allentown.  It's just another sign that winter is approaching.  If that doesn't remind you, turning the clocks back will.

In just over a week the sun will be setting an hour earlier and the days of darkness quickly expand.  It reminds me from a weather standpoint November is probably my least favorite month.  Gone are the temperature fluctuations of October.  Take the current month for example.  The first six days hit at least 80.  The last week of the month might not make it to 60.  Last November the average temperature was 41.  October's was 56. 

The instant darkness is the first kick in the ass November brings.  Regardless of your fondness for winter there is nothing exciting about watching the only daylight hours through the window of your office.  Give it one day after the clocks roll back before someone surely says, I can't believe it is only 5:30. 

Even worse is the cold, chilly and damp air mass that November has the tendency to usher in.  It's the type of cold that can go right through you.  It's heavy unlike the cold, dry air of mid winter.  With an average high of 53 and low of 35 (Reading) the temperature stays in the range of uncomfortable and awkward.  Not cold enough for the thick winter jacket, no warmth in a thin-layered coat and a bit too damp for a heavy sweater.  Add in precipitation and it only gets worse.

November averages around 3.5 inches of rain.  While that isn't the most in a month it is rather high for the colder months from November thru March.  Be reminded that most of this falls in liquid precipitation with those temperatures hovering around 40.  To me there is little worse than a cold rain.  It is impossible to stay warm.  Luckily last year we actually had more snow than rain.  Not likely going to happen this year. 

I often feel the six month period between fall and spring mirror each other in some way.  For instance January and February both share the heart of winter in our area.  We generally see our heaviest snows in these months and the difference in average temperatures are only a few degrees.  Moving away from the heart we get December and March.  One forms the beginning of winter and the other sees the end.  Take last year for example.  We had 5.6 inches of snow in December and 4.9 inches in March.  On the outer cusp we get November and April.  The only difference is one ushers in crappy weather and the other welcomes the sites and sounds of spring.

It's hard to make a good case for November.  It has what I like to call the triple D's.  Darkness.  Dampness.  Deadness.  Put your head down and plow through it.  Eventually the snowstorms will come.  Even if you aren't a fan of winter, most would agree it is nicer to see the white dustings of snow as opposed to the brown backdrop of dead grass, bare trees and crumpled piles of leaves. 

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Dust The Shovels Off

The predictions have started.  A storm has already been named.  Winter hasn't technically started, but the reality is it has.  The first flakes will fly before the week is over in Pennsylvania.

The winter previews from the Philadelphia news sources have yet to arrive.  I would guess those should all appear within the next few weeks.  Like in seasons past I will gather all these guesses to see who did the best when the season ends.  Personally I would prefer to not make a prediction since it amounts to nothing more than a guess.  But what fun would that be.  I have the same chance at being accurate as all of the others.

I will be the first to step up to the plate.  When you consider average snowfall totals you have to consider all the random numbers calculated throughout the years of recordings.  This is why I find it amusing when the Philadelphia stations predict 20-24 inches for the city or basically the seasonal average.  It doesn't consistently snow the same amount every year!  Now for my take.  The Lehigh and Delaware valley's have missed out on the big snow the last few years, but they have been close by.  Like always the potential for a winter battleground in our area could take shape.

• I see potential for at least one major storm (12-15 inches)
• Two storms of a moderate scale (6-8 inches)

This puts us in the ballpark of 24-31 inches which I could settle on if one of those storms doesn't pan out and the rest of the winter is marginal.  However, I will keep with the guesses above and add in the occasional lighter snows for a season for the Reading to Allentown corridor, minus the areas at higher elevation, of 36-39 inches.


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It's time to follow three more cities this year in my so-called snow zones.  I have the pleasure of introducing the three participants this season all coming from the northeast.

As returning champion and overall big city winner yet again last year, Syracuse will once again be represented strong.  Let's be honest, it's going to take a big winter somewhere else in the country to knock Syracuse off their perch.

Head north and we get contestant number two.  Situated along Lake Champlain is the lovely little town of Burlington, Vermont.  For an area that does not see lake effect snow, they can really pound out some solid seasonal totals.

Our wild card this year will be Johnstown, PA.  They have the distinction of being built in a ditch.  It is surrounded in all directions in what I will call large hills.  In winter this elevation difference can help increase moisture in the town and make snowfall totals a bit higher than in other locations.  Though the average isn't very high, it only takes a few big storms to keep this town in the running.

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Summer Rainfall Champion

It wasn't really a competition as much as something to track during the months it isn't snowing.  I picked five random cities before summer started and tracked their monthly rainfall for June, July, August and September.  The numbers were tallied and the winner is...

PHILADELPHIA

The city of brotherly love finished with an incredible 32.96 inches over the four month span.  That would average out to over 8 inches a month and about 8 inches less than a normal yearly average.  This is the first championship the city has won in any weather category since they took down the windiest autumn back in 1967.

Here are the final results from last to first.

5.  Des Moines: 7.59

4.  Portland: 7.75

3.  Baton Rouge:   21.38

2.  Savannah:   29.41

1.  Philadelphia:  32.96

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July Stories

If you take a look at the long range forecast for August, there is one day of a predicted high above 85.  While that might not be accurate it does indicate a cooler trend for the month.  For a little perspective last August had 17 days in Reading reach at least 86 degrees.  Only once did the high last August not reach 80 and four nights got into the 50's.  We already hit the 50's three times in July, something that happened exactly zero times last July.  Moral of the story is enjoy this very nice weather.

Onto news and events.  I will try to keep it brief.

1.)  The western plains is well known for being a prime spot for hailstorms as thunderstorms build and cross over the mountains dumping inches of hail on communities at higher elevations east of the mountains.  It happens every year.  This time it was Santa Rosa, New Mexico that took a hit.  A hit of over a foot.  It's like winter in July only not really and a massive pain.

2.)  I've stayed away from a lot of stories about people leaving animals or children in hot cars but this one is too good to pass up and is short.  A Wisconsin couple will face charges after leaving their 9 month old child in a hot car for at least 20 minutes while they were shopping... for sex toys.  While it doesn't sound like something intelligent people would do, the law abiding couple explained to the police that they left him in the car because no one under 18 is allowed inside. 

3.)  I spent a lot of time talking about the Joplin tornado when it first occurred and now find myself continually talking about something going on because of the storm.  I think this is the second time I've had Joplin mentioned in my weather story section.  As people continue to rebuild and resume life, the storm unearthed lead-contaminated soil from much of the disaster area.  Topsoil was covering old mining fields used over 100 years ago.  When structures and trees were uprooted, lead the size of rocks came to the surface along with other waste from the mines.  Nearly half of the approximately 1,000 yards of soil tested came back positive and will have to be excavated.  It has now been over two years since the tornado struck.

   

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and I'm Back

Hockey, running, workouts, biking, car searching and now finally a new post.  It has been awhile so let's get caught back up.

Great timing to start keeping track of summer rainfall totals.  Great idea to pick Philadelphia as one of the cities to represent.  Since my summer project began on June 1st, Philadelphia has set a new June monthly rainfall record, a July monthly rainfall record and destroyed their daily rainfall record by more than a inch all within a few hours.  By this time tomorrow the total rainfall for two months could be near 25 inches.  Wow.  August will not be breaking any records.  I think the record is somewhere around 19 inches.

In keeping with local weather how about these temperatures?  For all the complaints of a week of 90 degree days everybody should be very pleased with the temperatures we've been seeing and will continue to see.  Even August is looking nice compared to what we could be seeing.

Off to the stories of the strange and different that I have skipped over this past month.  I'll try to do a few here and there while catching up to current events.


1.)  The National Trust for Historic Preservation came out with their top five landmarks to be threatened by gradual sea rise.  You'd be correct if you guessed that all five are located near an ocean.  Now nobody can be certain how high the rise will be and if or when it will occur but take some solace in knowing you might see places others in future generations will miss out on.  Maybe solace wasn't the right word.  Here are their top five in no order.

• Embarcadero - San Francisco:  This area along the water in northeast SF could be swallowed by a rise of 55 inches by the end of this century.
• Battery District - New York:  On the southern tip of Manhattan, this area already saw what a monster storm like Sandy can do.  Flooding will become a more common occurrence in the area as time goes on.
• Miami Beach - Florida:  This one can't be surprising.  The city is on an island between the ocean and Biscayne Bay.  A few direct hits from hurricanes and the place could be gone.  Sea level rise would add more fuel to a potential fire.
• Gay Head Lighthouse - Massachusetts:  The 1856 lighthouse sits on Martha's Vineyard and after taking a parade of beatings from storms over the years, erosion is destroying the cliff it sits on threatening to topple the structure.
• Annapolis - Maryland:  A historic city and home to the Naval Academy, Annapolis has two things working against the city.  They sit right on the bay and are also slowly sinking.  This town should go on my lists of places to at least spend a day in.

2.)  Melting glaciers are never a good sign but in many instances they prove to uncover mysteries of events long from the past.  It happened again two weeks ago, this time in Alaska as a National Guard unit flying training missions last year noticed the wreckage of a plane.  Now the wreckage is being pushed to the surface.  The Air Force cargo plane crashed in 1952.  Officials knew where it was but snow quickly buried it causing it to disappear.  Now officials are working to uncover items and remains that have been preserved in the ice.  Since the crash, the glacier moved the wreckage 12 miles as it continued to shift.

3.)  It was only a matter of time, although I can't say this isn't already being done, but the CIA is funding $630,000 for a scientific study to see if humans can control the weather.  I won't get into all the jargon and specifics but two ideas seem to be on the radar.  One method is to pump particles into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight away from the planet in an attempt at a cooling trend.  Another study will investigate removing carbon dioxide from the air.  There have been attempts before at altering weather, whether it is trying to create clouds to trying to change hurricane behavior.  Nothing has worked.  And with funding like this I'm not sure how serious they are on it anyway.  

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Weather Oddities 2

It's another wet and stormy June day today.  I couldn't have imagined just how wet this month would turn out with my first foray into summer rainfall amounts.  The pattern continues as the wet weather will push into July.  Philadelphia will surely pass the ten inch mark this month.  Great time to start keeping track of rain.  Southern areas are doing well themselves.

Speaking of rain, I think the majority of national news stories involving weather are flood related.  Alberta is taking a beating.  I was going to post videos but there are too many out there.  Do a search on Calgary to see the whole city under water or look into Canmore, a town I Goggle mapped my way through just a few weeks ago that sits in a picturesque part of the Canadian Rockies, if you choose.  But there has also been news about flooding in France and in India that has claimed over a thousand lives.  It's amazing the power and simplicity of water. 

I'm a little behind on my weekly weather oddity column so let's dive in.  The goal is to keep it around three each week.


1)  I don't want to keep going back to the same stories in this section but the Moore tornado was back in the news.  I bring it up because of something I never considered.  Residents who went through the process of cleaning up and beginning to rebuild are starting to experience medical issues caused by breathing in the bits of debris in the air.  Obviously when homes and businesses are demolished particles are inhaled that are normally avoided by people.  Hopefully people remember to use all the necessary protection when digging through the wreckage including face masks.

2)  The WASHINGTON POST article:

There is the headline from an article in the Washington Post.  I'm no longer taking sides on this, not that I really did before, as long as we can learn and understand both viewpoints.  And I for one do not want to be a part of any trend that includes the word warming.  The title perfectly encompasses the article by letting us know that while the rate of warming over the last 15 years has been slower than the 20 years prior, that doesn't mean we should get excited.  The article goes on to throw out questions as to why, in short summary, what should we make of it, is it random, or does it tell us something interesting about climate change?

The four selected answers are as follows.

1. THERE IS STILL GLOBAL WARMING -  That certainly answers it

2. ONE THEORY, OCEANS RESPONSIBLE - Cool, care to explore other theories?

3. EVEN IF YOU PLACE A LOT OF WEIGHT ON THE RECENT SLOWDOWN, IT DOESN'T CHANGE PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE WARMING TOO DRAMATICALLY
Okay so I took this one verbatim as written.  Good golly do I love it.  So much in here to play with.  It is clear the message we are going for in this piece after three apparent answers to predetermined questions is global warming is very much a threat.  I'm fine with that.  The wording is the great part.

Even If You = Go ahead, but you are really reaching
A Lot Of Weight = You are putting all of your eggs in one basket now

Doesn't Change Projections:  It might have if you didn't just say I placed A LOT of weight
Too Dramatically:  So there is a change?

You realize if I was on the other side of this issue I could have used the exact same basis of the sentence and written the following without being incorrect:  IF YOU PLACE WEIGHT ON THE RECENT SLOWDOWN, IT CHANGES PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE WARMING

4.  STILL ON PACE TO BLOW PAST 2 DEGREES CELSIUS TARGET 

Let me sum it up.  What should we make of this?  I don't know.  Is it random?  Maybe.  Does it tell us something interesting?  Not yet.

3)  A woman in Colorado who had her home destroyed by the Black Forest fire that swept through the northern area of Colorado Springs returned to her home to sift through whatever valuables could be salvaged.  Turns out the police were doing some searching of their own.  She was arrested on a traffic related warrant while trying to clean up. 

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Weekly Oddities

In reading various news throughout the week I started to realize that there is a variety of odd, bizarre and unique stories involving weather in some capacity.  The idea with this is to save those stories for a weekly roundup.  Let's begin.

I had seen this one a little over a week ago and wanted to touch base on it but never did.  It is the perfect opening for this new post.

1.)
Looting has always been commonplace after damaging storms.  Some people do it out of necessity, others see it as an opportunity.  Either way it is not surprising to see greedy individuals out there stealing.  These three guys take the cake.  After the Moore tornado the small amount of dip sticks came out from their campers and began searching the debris.  Three men in particular had a game plan established.  They were going to clean up on copper parts that recently have been a hot item for thieves.  Unfortunately they were caught.  Now I know you are thinking at this point how can this be.  Apparently walking down the middle of a demolished street carrying out copper throws up a red flag.  It's even worse when you are walking to the vehicle your two buddies are standing next to with a van full of stolen goods.  Here is the kicker.  The three men were from Virginia.  They had driven to Oklahoma for the sole intention of stealing copper after the tornado.  That is some brilliance.

2.)
It's fire season and this past week saw very warm temperatures for the west combine with high winds and low humidity.  Red Flag warnings were up for many areas west of Denver through Nevada and Arizona.  Many times it is the isolated thunderstorms that produce more of a light show than a rain event that get fires started.  The warnings still advise people to avoid camp fires in the woods and do not flick a cigarette out the window.  They might need to add another to that list.  Don't burn ants with a magnifying glass.  Three kids in Flagstaff found out the hard way.  My head is spinning on this one.  I can't believe people still do this.  I am slightly pleased to see kids still want to play outside.  But I'm also concerned about this type of activity.  A part of me feels that this might have been the most affordable thing to keep them preoccupied.  It is unclear how many ants if any were victimized but the kids did manage to start a fire.  Luckily a group of neighbors heard the commotion and were able to control the fire before it got out of hand as firefighters arrived to spray the entire area to be sure.  Every year there is some fire started by something that makes you shake your head.  Maybe this is the one that doesn't end with an entire forest burning down.

3.)
This past week saw numerous cases of volatile weather across the east with much of the severe weather rolling through to the south of our area.  Tornadoes were reported as far north as Delaware that saw an EF0 and video caught a small tornado over the harbor in Baltimore.  During this time the Chesapeake Bay Bridge, the only bridge over the bay, was briefly closed for safety reasons.  It's not uncommon as high winds across a flat surface hitting a long suspension bridge can lead to rocking.  A minor inconvenience for most is an acceptable cost as opposed to a very intense amusement park type of ride.  One minor detail nobody knew about.  There was still a truck out on the bridge when it closed.  All he could do was pull over and take some video.  It's not as crazy and you might think but still not a place I'd want to be completely alone.


There you have it.  Hopefully this roundup can continue as I find more suitable stories.     

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Rain and Rides

Half way through the month and Philadelphia has taken a strong lead in the rainfall totals.  Nobody could have predicted the city would be well on the way towards the ten inch mark in one month.  The good news is we are very early into this rainfall tracking, and I would bet willing to be almost anything that one of the other cities passes Philadelphia within a short amount of time.  The other thing that should start to take shape, if it hasn't already, is the truth that cities in the northwest U.S. really don't see a lot of rain.  That's the reason I picked Portland.


I was able to get out riding twice in the past two weekends.  The first came at Jim Thorpe which was a nice change of pace.  The thought behind that ride was to get away from the 90 degree temperatures that week.  If I go up again I would probably do the whole ride which I think is about 50 miles.  Add in a mostly gravel trail and it makes for a more difficult ride.  There also isn't a place to stop and walk around unless you want to sit by the river.  However the town is charming enough to allow for a quick walk through.  It will be on my radar in the future especially towards fall.


Last week I went for a shorter ride.  I'm trying to experience as many areas as I can and the only thing I can do is try them out.  This time it was in the Blue Mountains.  You can only experience so much on a bike.  There wasn't a ton to look at outside of dense woods and the speed you go at makes looking into the greenery almost nauseating.  What I do like though is that there are so many things revolving around nature to do that people have no idea exist.  It's fun to explore.  As much as I enjoy the outdoors there are some things that throw me.  About half way into the ride I started to hear a high pitched noise.  I didn't think much of it because even on a windless day the breeze as you ride makes noise in your ears.  This noise was different though.  I looked back to my rear tire a few times to see if the spinning was the culprit of the noise.  Then I slowed down thinking the noise would change if it was coming from my bike.  I almost came close to asking the few other riders I saw if they heard it to just to be sure it wasn't me.  Eventually I decided I had to stop riding.

This is what I heard.  Feel free to up your volume.




Now outside of a few birds chirping there is nothing that should make noise out here.  There are no roads close by or rivers or streams.  Everything is calm except for that sound.  Even listening to it again I get a vision of tires spinning.  It's not.  It hit me soon that the paper that morning had an article on the front about people now seeing the cicadas.  That had to be it.

Half of the ride ended up being a whistling version of that bizarre sound.  It wasn't that bad but it never changes.  Only at some point the bugs weren't around anymore and the normal wooded sounds came back.  It was very odd.

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No tropical activity at this point.  No areas look to be in line for excessive rainfall this week.  Severe weather looks to be limited.  It's hot where it is normally hot.  Fire season is kicking in like it does every year.  It's an unfortunate byproduct of living in the picturesque areas of the west but something that has to be dealt with every year.  Let's remember most of these areas border on a desert type climate.

Our area should finally be able to dry out from the heavy amount of rain we received.  Looking like a nice week.  

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Storm Following

I use the title of that post in two different aspects for the post today.  I am personally tracking storms for our area today, and also took a lot of time on Friday to follow what was unfolding in Oklahoma City once again.  Little did anybody know what would be the result from that day.

I knew Friday was going to be an interesting day for the central part of the country.  Once again Oklahoma appeared to be targeted as chasers lined up all over the state waiting for storms to form.  I also sat patiently waiting with my updated radar system that I will get to later.  By late afternoon the storms were firing with heavy rains and winds and tornadoes out in front of the leading edge.  I generally pass on The Weather Channel but in times like these they are constantly on air using all of their available features which is what should be happening.  Then word got out that a large tornado was on the ground headed towards Oklahoma City as well as Moore.  Not even two weeks later and another tornado is crawling towards your doorstep.  Welcome to Oklahoma.

Between studio coverage TWC would link in with actual tornado chaser video as well as resources with the local media.  I have to say they did a very good job.  Throughout the month of May the channel also had their own team of meteorologists chasing storms.  The chase ended with something completely out of the ordinary.  As the night progressed it was learned The Weather Channel chase car had been caught up in the tornado.  My initial reaction was not terribly surprising as the outflow from storms or inflow of winds wrapping around a tornado is easy to come across when researchers are in the field.  What wasn't made so obvious at first was they were literally in the tornado.  Their car had been lifted, picked up and rolled multiple times to the tune of ending up 200 yards away.  That's not something to sneeze at.  There are pictures of the aftermath and even videos from inside the car as Mike Bettes (Weather Channel met) shouted instructions and video from outside of the car (camera was sucked out the window, landed in the grass and kept filming) as it was picked up and tossed.  It is really stunning news for me because if the highest profiled weather company with all of their data gets surprised by a tornado, what chances do anybody else have?

Below is an image I was able to capture during the storm off radar.

I took this to get a feeling of life in the plains.  Obviously we know what happened in Moore.  Here we are less than two weeks later and this is on your radar.  The purple diagonal line to the north of town is part of a box that signifies a tornado warning in place.  The purple line that runs more north to south sitting west of the city is another warning.  The triple colored line of pinkish color and black in the middle is a tornado emergency box which is the highest warning you can get.  In essence Moore was in three different tornado warnings at the same time.

Then this morning I learned of terrible news to the weather community.  It was reported that members of Twistex were among those killed by the tornado on Friday in El Reno (to the west of the map above).  It was an instant shot to me.  I followed this team when Discovery ran the show Storm Chasers to which I followed religiously.  The team was involved in chasing fueled by gaining knowledge through science and research with a more old school approach as compared to some of the younger chasers.  They were out there to help better predict these storms and instead were caught by the unpredictable nature of them.  I think all chasers know of the risk associated with doing the job.  This day cost the community some people on the front line of tornado research.  Let's also remember it is these people who report back to the weather service confirming that there are indeed tornadoes on the ground and telling people which way they are moving and at what location they are at.

For now we press on.  I just looked at the prediction center outlook for this week and the good news is it looks very low for tornadoes or outbreaks.  At this point that can only be a good thing.  By the way, if it sounds like I am very fascinated by these events, I am.  I spent an entire semester in college during a science writing class working on the topic of tornadoes.  He said to pick something science related and there is a lot of science behind these monsters.

ON GOING NEWS


I mentioned earlier about a new radar program that I might start working with that is illustrated in the Moore map.  Similarly like winter storms, I really start getting into the dynamics of summer storms and with hurricane season approaching and our own severe thunderstorm season kicking off later this summer it might be time to get on board. 

I am also considering revamping the front page.  The original design only allows me to do so much before I can't change anything.  In an effort to make it more visually appealing in the main section I might decide to go with something a little different that allows pictures to fit better as well as text.  I guess it depends on how much time I want to put in and right now it's not a lot.

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Memorial Day

The weather ended up being about as good as you could ask for last Monday which meant I would be out for what is becoming my weekly bike trip.  This time I went early enough to catch a small lunch on the way down before arriving in Philadelphia by midday.  Instead of providing little details about a constant peddling motion I will give a list of patterns taking shape that aren't necessarily annoying but make me shake my head.

1.  The Tour de France riders.  This entire list is based off a select few repeat offenders and is not a statement about the group as a whole.  However, this group is probably the worst especially in packs.  I'm not sure if some are aware but this isn't the Tour de Schuylkill.  They ride as if they are the only ones out there and all else should look out for them.  If you want to max out your speed go find some open country roads instead of a place with walkers, runners and skaters let alone slower bikers.

2.  Kids between 9 and 13.  I'm not great at guessing kids ages so this is a ballpark figure.  Here is my reasoning on why I think this group struggles.  First off there aren't a ton of kids out.  Young ones tend to stay close to their parents and sometimes even look a bit cautious.  Older kids generally have an understanding on how the process works.  This 9 to 13 range I feel are just old enough to show they can ride a bike like everybody else.  I almost hit a kid the first time I went after he decided to turn his bike to the left as I was passing.  I don't even think his feet were on the pedals.  He was just mounted on his bike in the middle of the trail.  I hit the brakes and said watch out before his mother who was behind him apologized.  Last Monday while leaving the city I slowly followed a group out led by a kid in this age range who at a point along the trail only big enough for two bikes made a left turn with his front wheel.  A biker with speed in full attire had no chance.  He hit the brakes but slid into the kids wheel.  This also happened under a bridge with concrete support so you couldn't ride into the grass.  His mother apologized and the kids did two or three times.  At first the guy looked like he was going to say something but to his credit said as long as everybody was okay it was alright.

3.  The out to lunch riders.  This is probably the group that most surprises me and has nothing to do with actually biking.  Regardless of when I go there is always a group of people that don't pull off the trail when they stop riding.  They stop and talk, look at the sights but can't manage to move a few feet over.

This is all to be expected when traveling on heavily used sections.  It's nice that other people enjoy the outdoors as well and the people who understand the rules of the road far outweigh the ones who don't.

Here are a few pictures from the ride.  Ended up being 55 miles.

Museum from across the river

Boathouses

Final stop to relax with the grass people at Walnut Street

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Tornado Season

I fibbed.  The bike post will wait.  The tornado is the one weather event that is as fascinating as is it frightening.  Last week we had another example of a heavily populated city taking a direct hit from the most powerful of storms.  I didn't make mention of it on here for little more of a reason than if I posted about every event I would probably have to quit my job and many other hobbies.  However, here I am.

The tornado in my mind is near or at the top in horrifying meteorological events.  They are completely unpredictable, extremely violent and in simple terms, don't give a shit.  They form when they want to, where they want to and move wherever they desire.  Oh yeah, and it happens in the matter of moments.  That's the scary part.  A sunny spring day can turn into a nightmare in a few minutes.  No place on earth deals with these as much as the United States and especially the central part of the country.

This past week Moore, Oklahoma was added to list of places to get hit by an EF5 tornado.  Since the new scale was established in 2007, this has been the ninth according to the weather service.  It was a list Moore didn't want to be on but have found themselves too often.  They already were on the list for an F4 and F5 tornado all since 1999.  The first thing that came to mind when I returned home and saw the news of the event was this was like Joplin all over again.

It was oh so very clear.  The news crews standing on piles of ruble.  The interviews with people who had lost everything hours after waking up on a warm Monday morning.  The inaccuracy of the reporting.  The we've-been-here-for-hours and are starting to run out of useful information.  We've seen it before and will see it again.  Maybe it is the nature of the people in the mid-west and south but if I had experienced loss of that magnitude and came back to find cameras and media all over the place or standing on whatever was left of my house I wouldn't be too friendly.  And maybe part of it is understanding that this is how life is in that part of the world.  Nothing echoed that more than the older lady standing on the remnants of her home being interviewed by whoever and realizing her dog was probably gone only to have somebody point out the dog struggling to free itself from the ruble a couple seconds later.  A great moment captured for all to see.

What we won't see is how the rest of the story plays out.  The media leaves and unless you live close by or make an attempt, the story ends here.  I said the same thing about Joplin after that city was destroyed and many lives lost.  I still follow the rebuilding of Joplin.  That tornado was two years ago.  In fact there was a short picture slideshow with images of various places around the city from the time of the tornado to today.  The time it takes to rebuild is amazing.  The nice thing about today with social media is that anybody who has an interest in helping or donating in anyway is easily able to do so.  That part of the story can't be overlooked either.

I don't want to diminish other natural events.  It's just that tornadoes bring a different dimension of destruction and loss.  Tropical storms move slowly, carving out a path before making or sometimes not making landfall.  People get enough advanced warning to stock up on items, board up and fly or drive somewhere else if they desire.  Plus, if you don't live along or near a coast susceptible to this particular event, you don't have to worry.  Flooding has long been particularly deadly.  There is though an inherent risk when living near water and that is risk number one.  A little common sense can go a long way in flood situations.  Outside of those two events, I'm not sure what else in terms of weather would be high on the list.  Maybe blizzards or heat waves which again fail in comparison.

People can argue that by living in tornado alley, many people are putting themselves at risk.  It is a risk but so is getting in your car in the morning.  Living next to a river or along the Atlantic is a pretty specific choice.  Living in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas or the other dozens of states that are prone is basic life.  Tornadoes can happen almost anywhere.  There have been 20 states since 1950 that were hit by an F5 tornado.  Ohio has been hit four times.  Guess who else is on the list.  Pennsylvania.  I don't know if Pennsylvania will ever see it happen again, Ohio probably will.  But what will happen is there will be a tornado this year somewhere in this general vicinity.  Where it will be, who knows?

And that's what makes tornadoes so insane.  You wake up one morning and go to work only to come back and find your neighborhood is gone.  So is everything you owned.  Your family had a few minutes to grab what they could which was likely nothing more than themselves and maybe a pet.  Then you need to find shelter and hope for the best.  This type of event could happen at any time or any day for a lot of people.  Very scary proposition.

I'll leave you with this video.  From a video recording device, in a car, hundreds of yards away, the sound of this thing gave me goosebumps.


          

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Winter Recap

With our temperatures expected to top 90 a few times this week I think we can officially close out the 2012-13 winter season even though some places are still seeing snow and others will continue to as well.

Let's begin locally first.  One of the more interesting aspects of watching winter unfold is seeing how well these fine meteorologists do in forecasting ahead.  The simple answer is not very well.  And while I'm on the subject, I officially will forever be taking any forecast from anybody with a grain of salt.  My weekend ride to Manayunk last weekend was far wetter than the partly sunny forecast that was given.  Anyway, it's really not going to come as a surprise to see nobody was remotely accurate in predicting Philadelphia's snowfall.

According to the latest record the city ended with 8.3 inches.  That's about ten inches less than the closest lowest forecast that came from Fox who said 18-24.  So I guess Fox wins that round?  It was really more or less a swing and miss from every station.

Now the Lehigh Valley.  I still look at it as a decent winter.  It snowed often just not in very high amounts.  The totals I show for Allentown for the season were 21.4 inches.  Not bad but below average.  For the group who gave predictions it was once again a swing and miss, or maybe a foul tip.  We never got the big coastal storms that pounded New England this year.  If one of those would have gotten us both Allentown and Philadelphia would have ended with the predicted totals.  That didn't happen though so we all get a D in predicting. 

News and Notes

It wasn't a competition since factors in various areas greatly differ, but I can clear off my snow zones on the right side of the page now.

Assuming the season is actually over, Houghton will end will right around 225 inches.  Really nothing out of the ordinary.  That area is in such a prime area for snow that it's almost hard to believe people settled there.  If you like that type of weather and remoteness then maybe a job at Michigan Tech is for you.

Caribou ends the season at 108 inches.  Again, a pretty typical winter in northern Maine.  I think the bigger issue in that part of the country is the cold.  In my mind the weather tends to be more similar to that of the plains in that cold air dips down from Canada constantly and warm ups are hard to come by.  When it snows, it sticks around for awhile.

Last but not least is the always consistent Syracuse that finished with a quiet 115 inches.  They were also once again the snowiest city in the United States even though the mid-west and New England areas did quite well.  Their snow falls lightly but often which really adds up.  If you care to see the joys of lake effect snow pull out a map of New York.  Auburn got 72 inches.  Fulton got 171.  In the middle is Syracuse.  All are about 30 miles from each other.

SUMMER SEASON

The snow totals are gone on my page and this year we introduce something different.  Starting on June 1st and running through September 30th, or basically what I generally consider the summer season, I will be picking complete random cities to track total rainfall.  Obviously this will indicate very little and serve no real purpose outside of my entertainment, but it might help with my subject material.

Here will be the cities of choice in no particular order and literally being picked as I type this post.

• Des Moines, Iowa
• Baton Rouge, Louisiana
• Savannah, Georgia
• Portland, Oregon
• Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

I'd like to give a good explanation of why these cities were picked, but I cannot.  I tried to get a decent amount of the country involved in places I know should get decent rainfall totals due to a variety of circumstances.  Some will be from coastal (west) others could be tropical or some from heavy thunderstorms.  I also didn't want to take the slam dunk areas like Florida that see rain all the time or the proverbial Seattle that doesn't actually see that much rain.  Plus Portland is basically a younger cousin.  I'm also at this time assuming I can find totals for these five locations.

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Next Post:  My Extended Bike Ride

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