Rewind and Fast Forward

After some serious work on my left leg in the four days leading up to one of the more difficult trail runs I will do in a year, I was lucky enough to get through the race without any issues.  In fact it ended up being one of my better trail runs that I've ever had.  Better yet, I haven't had any pain after the run.

This was probably the first run in awhile, possibly ever, that there was a sense of apprehensiveness.  I tried running trails the week before and it wasn't a pretty sight.  I knew if my injury kicked in early during the run I was going to have a difficult time finishing.  The problem was the injury hides itself until shortly after the running begins leaving me out in the cold as to whether or not I could complete this race. 

Injury or no injury I still started towards the outer front of the group.  All the wild weather leading up to the race like it often has this year primarily missed the area.  The heavy rain predicted for Friday and Saturday was more of a light event or drizzle.  One of these years we won't be so lucky.  And it was probably good the course wasn't a complete mud pit because after doing a short loop from the start we were faced with a short straight up section of dirt.  It was the only part of the race I had to use the ground to help me up.  The good part was my leg was feeling fine.

We quickly made our way into the woods heading towards the Pagoda but a few hundred feet down.  You would never know there are trails there and some open up to look straight down into the city.  I'm talking straight and down.  Like, keep your eyes focused ahead or one small misstep could cost you a bit of a tumble.  We proceeded to traverse the mountain numerous times often on flat parts leading to quick climbs.  It was pretty easy to get lost in the surroundings. 

This isn't the type of run for devices so I didn't have my GPS tracker, however after looking at a map and remembering areas where we were, you are easily talking about a descent and climb of 400-500 feet in a short period.  The descent is more gradual, the climb is more steep.  Speaking of the climb, it was the most difficult part of the course.  It was about as vertical as you could get while still being able to move forward and ended up leading to Skyline Drive above the city.  Except we were further north along the road, not near the Pagoda and ended up climbing over the barrier wall and jumping down onto the road.

We ran on the road for a short distance with a straight shot view of everything below from the city to the suburbs and hills in the distance.  Myself and two others who were in front and behind me during the climb ended up running side by side enjoying a casual conversation about the awesome view of which one who I assume was not from the area was amazed to see.  After getting back onto the course it was mainly flat and since we had reached the top, it was going to be downhill from here.  I really got some speed going down with the more careful runners being the only thing slowing me down.  I passed cautiously while also getting a few words of encouragement for going at it full speed.  The finish line was approaching within a mile with a jog around a lake and one more rocky climb to get back to the bar. 

Seeing the clock under 1:20 was a nice surprise and finishing with almost no pain was even nicer. 

I'm sure you have it bookmarked but if you don't and care to take three minutes to scan, Trail Runner Magazine had an article about the race that you can find Here. 

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WEATHER TIME

If you haven't noticed, February hasn't exactly ushered in the snowfall.  I guess I should put an asterisk after that and note - for our area.  Some places have been getting hit hard including New England, much of the central area of the country and the southwest and mountains of the west.  Okay, pretty much everybody except us and the southeast.  Now let the trumpets sound for the possibility of an early March snowstorm.

It's already on the radar of some.  The models show absolutely nothing.  If anything it moves well to the south.  Quite frankly, why not?  It would be the perfect way to end the season.  Give the southeast a snowstorm so basically everybody got at least once except for our area and the D.C./ Baltimore area. 

If we are going to get something it will have to be in the first week of March.  After that temps start bouncing all over the place in a typical trek towards spring.  That makes it much more difficult to get a snowstorm.  I can always look at it like each day that passes now gets me closer to next winter.  But we still have another full month left and even a week or two into April could bring something.

At this point I don't even care.  My leg seems to be on a much quicker road to recovery.  The days get longer allowing me the option to go outside after work to run or do whatever.  Various runs and races become more plentiful as I can always hope for a rainy day.  MLS is kicking off.  Hockey is being hockey.  Other things are doing things.  Wheels are in motion.  Enough of this. 

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Weekend Warrior

As the winter season slowly heads toward the final stretches and spring time activities and runs increase, I can look back to say there hasn't been a terrible weather run throughout fall or winter.  Yet.

The majority of the winter runs have been at worst cold and damp and at best somewhat enjoyable.  There was the pre-tropical storm 10 mile run that easily took the muddiest award.  From what I've been told it seems to be a muddy course even during a dry period.  There was a very cold 16 degree run a day after a light snow event.  I wouldn't call those tough conditions.  The one winter trail run and all the shivers have had about as nice of weather as you possibly could get.  Why do I bring this up now?  There might be something brewing this weekend.

There has been something continuously showing up in the 22nd to 23rd time frame for quite awhile now.  The bigger question is what will it be.  That I don't know right now.  All the sources are picking up something.  The word rain or snow or both comes into play in almost every media outlets forecast for all three days this weekend.  It is something to pay a lot of attention to.  I especially am taking interest as not only is there some type of coastal storm trying to set up but I have a difficult race through the mountains of Reading.  Yes, I said mountains.  There is a national understanding that a mountain is anything over 1,000 feet so get off my back.  This qualifies.  If you still disagree please contact the mountain running cup series group.

The interesting thing about the model run is that when you first take a look at the end of the week you only see a minor disturbance.  Most of the moisture stays to the south and does not make a turn to the north.  As it appears to drift off into the Atlantic, a low forms to the south of New Jersey that refuels a steady stream of moisture back inland.  Temperatures are very hard to pinpoint right now.  I can tell you thought it won't be 50 or 45.  Which leads me to believe we are going to be in for some slop on Sunday.

Now I am still working on this IT band problem keeping me cautious about this run since all I have been doing is 5k's since it occurred.  I did however go out this weekend to get in a little mountain practice time.  I took a lot of breaks and did a lot of stretching as I went.  It was still very painful.  It was a tough haul especially certain downhill sections and the two miles of flat track back to my parking spot.  By the time I had gotten back to where I parked my tracker read 7.2 miles.  Oddly enough that happens to be the exact distance of the upcoming race.  The difference is there isn't any stopping or taking pictures of scenery in a race.  It's also just slightly more difficult.

I still have time to prepare and can make a call Sunday morning.  Now to share my pictures of my Saturday morning journey.  Always interesting to see what a little bit of elevation can do.

The beginning of the trail at water level

  

After a steady climb everything is covered

Flat part of the trail along the ridge

Looking back down close to the top

Good times.  Not a lick of white stuff at the bottom.  The top was a whole different world.

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Weekend Watcher

I didn't get to post before the last system made a pass through our area.  It was probably better I didn't.  The moisture was there and it even made it further north than anticipated.  The temperatures were an issue as the short term runs had continued to state.  The highest totals for our area topped out at three inches and all that was left behind for us this morning was a really pretty picture of a layer of snow covering everything.

Now quickly on to the weekend.  Here we go again.  First it showed up as a large storm.  Then it progressively tracked further and further east to the point it looked like it was gone.  Hold up.  All of the sudden a new little low formed and we are back talking about the potential of another little snowfall this season.  By the way, if you remember back before the winter started I said I was going to keep track of what percent of our final snow totals came from coastal storms.  I never even started to try.  It took about two storms before I realized there is no way I can figure it out.

I see no scenario for our area to be heavily impacted by this storm.  Could we see two inches?  Yes.  Will we?  No.  Are you sick of me answering my own questions?

The long term run doesn't show a heck of a lot on Saturday.  It doesn't even show it becoming much of a storm at all for anybody.  Actually Maine might catch it as well as parts of Canada.  The short term run is updating right now so give me a few paragraphs before I share.  

20 minutes later and we take a look.  Whole lot of nothing with that run.  To the point you could forget about posting any type of snow map at all. 
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NEXT WEEK

Like most coastal storms it will fly northward slamming perhaps St. John's again in some capacity and usher in a fresh batch of cold air for Sunday before temps rebound.

Looks like a wet Tuesday night with the advancement of a cold front that will knock temps back a little bit again.  No chance of snow for that one.

Interesting look to next Friday.  A low cuts across the middle of the country before swinging north towards Michigan.  Except a completely new low forms near the coast.  So there is cold air to the west of the first low, cold air to the west of the second low and a pocket of warm air up from the south in between the two.  Something to at least keep an eye on for now.

I at least can say the pattern remains active for more wintry weather. 

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Storm Tracking

The model runs tomorrow could be a solid indicator of what we can expect Wednesday afternoon and night.  Regardless of what they end up showing it looks like many of us will get snow.

Once we get into these patterns the previous snowfall tends to be forgotten quickly.  All eyes are already set on the next storm coming unless you are living in an area that has yet to dig out from last Friday.  Again, the global model is doing a great job at picking up signs of upcoming events.  It isn't always as accurate in the track but this computer generated program can amaze.  By the time this event occurs it will have been a full seven days since I mentioned practically the exact date.

There are some good signs for people looking for snow in our area.  Like I had said earlier, it would appear highly likely that we walk away with a snowfall.  The amount is the tricky part.  However many firstcasts (as I apparently invented a new word mid sentence to describe the first forecast of an event) have our area as the target zone for the most snow.  That can change by the time I'm done with this.  Here are our scenarios.

1.) The storm moves through quickly without a ton of moisture to work with and produces a wide scale snow for everybody in the two to three inch range.

2.) The storm slows up a bit and allows for enhanced development along the coast which increases the amount of moisture.  Nothing close to a major snowstorm though.


The model I continue to look has favored the second set up.  European leans towards the first.  The picture might become a little clearer tomorrow.  The other key with this is if it slows down and brings in moisture it would also funnel in warm air on the southern side.  It doesn't seem to be a factor for us but if you are around the Philadelphia area and points south it could end up being a rainy day.  I am even a bit cautious that our temperatures could be close.  We shall see.  Latest run I have would suggest a large swath of four inches.

Final update will be up tomorrow night.

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This bottom part is my look ahead section.  I prefer not to do that when there is something already to focus on.  Except that in this case it would be to talk about the large storm that is being shown for the weekend.  Trust me on this one, it's a heck of a system.  But as I played out the run from tonight a funny thing happened.  The model took it out to the Atlantic where it strengthens, flies north and pummels Nova Scotia.  It basically misses most of the eastern U.S. coast.  If this pattern continues we might need to kiss that one goodbye.  Too early to call now.  Plus the train still has more cars.

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The 2013 Blizzard

I could begin this in about ten different ways and go in about three different directions.  The historic nature of this storm is remarkable.  Years from now when looked back upon, our area and much of the rest of the state will only be a minor footnote.

I can't say I take a lot of pleasure when weather sources and outlets completely blow a forecast.  It's not an easy job.  As much as I'd like to call some groups out, I really can't.  Everybody including myself was all over the place with storm totals.  Anywhere from 1 to 14 inches was predicted by various sources.  And wouldn't you know it, we fell between those numbers.  Joking aside, as much that was missed or didn't pan out, there was an equal amount that did.  In a sense, everybody missed one part and correctly got the other.  Unfortunately for many of us, we only care to see the side that was missed because it directly affected this area.

The storm that came up the coast moved quicker than anticipated.  It also did not impact areas as west as originally thought and had a very sharp cutoff point.  To be fair that wasn't really the system that was going to give us the snow and if it did it would have been a light amount.  The second low was well to our north and moved slower.  The storms didn't transition until closer to Long Island instead of off southern New Jersey.  As it intensified the moisture filled back in during the evening giving us the accumulating snow that fell.  Once again it had a very defined cutoff point that setup right along the western side of our area.  

A look at our region.

A couple things that stand out in the final totals.  The Lehigh Valley as expected did decently well.  A solid five to six inches fell or as I'd like to think of it, the perfect amount.  Not enough to cause headaches but enough to look nice laying on the ground and for outdoor activity.  Secondly, and if I made the map larger it would really show up, check out places west of Berks County.  Lancaster had zero.  Nothing.  That's how close we were to missing out completely.  Lastly, I have long been a complainer about the snowfall reports that come out of Reading.  I am officially giving up.  Notice the various totals throughout Berks.  2.5 inches to the north in Hamburg.  A variety of 3 to 5 inch totals throughout Oley, Blandon and Fleetwood.  A 2.8 just north of the city and a 2.7 slightly south.  What does Reading "officially"report?  0.8.  Seriously?  That's what you're going with?  Okie dokie.

As far as New England goes, Connecticut seemed to take the biggest hit.  I counted nine places to hit at least 35 inches as I had stated was possible in my morning update yesterday.  Hamden was the only place that reported a total of at least 40 inches.  20 inch totals stretch from Maine to just outside New York City.  Quite an impressive storm.  Had I stuck with my original statement from Wednesday of, my guess is we will most of this one, I would have felt better about my amateur abilities.

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WHAT'S NEXT?

Don't get too excited but winter weather usually arrives by pattern.  Remember the continuous clipper activity earlier in the week and the week before.  This storm by the looks of it might have been the start of the new stormy pattern.  The NAO wasn't even negative and look what happened.  The NAO for the second half of the month is favoring a strong negative phase.

First things first though.  A steady rain will greet us at the beginning of the week.  I don't see any frozen precipitation for anybody in the region.  Temperatures should peak in the low 40's with about .60 to .70 inches of rain for most.

The 84 hour model also begins to show the first signs of whatever might find its way to us for Wednesday into Thursday.  Global doesn't bring it up the coast and instead scoots it to the south with us not seeing much of anything.  It is one to still keep an eye on though.

The storm that showed up in some past runs for next weekend forms a bit further north in the latest run and take a guess at who would take the brunt of the storm?  If you guessed New England you are correct.

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My Bad

You know why you are here.  I know why you are here.

Ever since my post last night the models have continued to trend colder and pushed a bit more precipitation into our area.  Clearly we will not be seeing the historic side of this storm like people from New York to Boston.  Nevertheless we all have a Winter Storm Warning except for the extreme southern areas of the Delaware Valley.  The latest model forecast for tomorrow has just finished its run.  Join me as I now take my last look before making a prediction. 

Wow.  Once again the precipitation has taken a slight trend west.  It only means the potential for more snow for our entire area.  The further north and especially east your location is, the better the chance to see heavy snowfall.  The very heavy snow line recently has set up along the NJ - PA border.  With this in mind and the latest run, here is my call.  I reaffirm again.  MY call.  I don't care what any other sites are posting.  This is based off the latest run and last I have available to look at before making a final post.  If time allows I will update tonight as more models update or maybe in the morning.

Here you go location by location from smallest to largest:

Western Berks County:  7-10 inches

Central and Eastern Berks County:  10-12 inches

Now we get into a very tricky area.  Totals can jump 5 or 10 inches within miles.  Southern spots also could see a mixing or rain so they too are hard to predict.

Allentown:  10-15 inches

Bethlehem:  15-17 inches

Easton:  17-20 inches

Areas north of I-78 in NJ:  20-30 + inches


No joke folks.  I might be up a little later tonight to see if other models start to agree.  In fact, this run is so strong that many places in northern New Jersey could see the highest totals out of anybody.  New York to Boston would still take a huge hit.  Name any town between the two cities and almost automatically put down at least 20 inches.

What a storm this could turn out to be.  Break open the record books because this is a slam dunk for a historic nor'easter.

* Side note*  The Global solution I used yesterday is much more inclined to keep the same totals as previously reported.  And in all honesty it is probably more accurate.  The totals above I tend to think are on the high range and the ones I posted below from the national stations tend to be low.  Meet in the middle and you probably have a wide range of 6-10 like the Global states.

Also, if you check Accuweather right now, the forecast for Reading says the following : "A coating to an inch of snow... through tomorrow evening." Weather Channel maps shows Reading in the 1-3 range.  Only the national service has placed warnings for anywhere from 4-16 inches from Reading through the Lehigh Valley.

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MORNING UPDATE

The joys of shifting models.  Newest update is once again a far cry from what ran six hours before it.  New England once again takes the brunt of the storm with many locations now pushing 35 inches.

For our entire area including places right along the NJ border and across it would appear to be a much broader range of 6-12 inches from Eastern Berks through Western New Jersey.  Central Berks would be more in a 5-7 range if that.

It might be too early for some people to be awake but at least the national weather service agrees as well.  Their totals have been scaled back significantly from last night as well.  The 16 inch high range has been replaced with 8. 

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Relax A Minute

By now we are all aware that there is a very good potential for a major snowstorm to hit the east coast Friday into Saturday.  Many counties from Pennsylvania into New England have had Winter Storm Watches up since earlier today.  Quite frankly that is a bit abnormal as usually these types of things start going up a bit closer to the actual storm.

As of right now only Northampton county has a watch but all of central and northern New Jersey have the same watch.  Philadelphia to Berks to Lehigh might be on the outside looking in for this one.

Let's dive in.

The first question I have and would have if I read this blog was how is this only getting mentioned now?  Well I did mention a Friday system with "more dynamics." So technically I could be given a pass as long as more dynamics means the possibility of a nor'easter with 1-2 feet of snow and high winds.  The actual reason is much simpler.  All that talk about me following the North American model that has been so reliable doesn't work as well as I thought.  This is also why this is a mere hobby.  The model I look at did not pick up this coastal storm.  The European model, which has a better track record for this type of storm, picked it up a few days ago.  That's why the dudes and ladies on TV always wait for model agreement.  Well the one I had been looking at picked it up yesterday.

Now we can look at the set up.

I'll be bold right off the bat.  I don't see a lot of snow for our particular area.  But the high snowfall amounts aren't going to be far away either.  Oh these pesky coastal storms.  I'm sure it will be keeping some meteorologists up all night.  If you live in Connecticut or Massachusetts you can probably expect something around the 20 inch mark.  I don't live there and in this case don't really care.  

Here's what I got.  The storm for us comes in waves.  The first batch to move through looks like snow.  An inch or two with that could be on the high side.  The temperatures then move into the upper 30's so that everything after the first wave would be either a mix or rain.  Models don't show the type of precipitation.  There is also no wrap around snow.  In all the times they mention the possibility of wrap around snow in one of these systems because the cold air comes racing in from behind, it probably averages out to happen about 5% of the time.  The cold air always seems to come in after the precip is long gone.  This assumption is based off the 84 hour model.

The Global run shows something a bit different.  It would go more like this.  Initially we would see snow.  A change to rain would occur with south Jersey getting very heavy rain.  It would intensify with cold air dropping south so New York City would see a solid snowstorm.  As it pulls into New England, cold air would really dive in so that much of eastern PA right to the coast would get a decent snowfall.  This is illustrated below from the model run tonight.

The accumulated snow totals off the same run would be as follows:  (This is directly off the maps, not what I think will or won't happen.)

-- Lehigh Valley, Berks, northern Montgomery and Bucks, Hunterdon:  6-10 inches
-- Chester County, Philadelphia and the immediate suburbs :  3-6 inches

My hope is I have the time to do a similar post using the same models tomorrow since by tomorrow night we should have a clear indication of what we can expect.  Being that we are less than 48 hours away I don't think we should expect a huge difference in what is being predicted now.  I would guess that by tomorrow afternoon we should have an understanding.  But then again, does anybody ever know what is going to happen with these? 

My guess again is that we miss most of this.  My excitement level is pretty low if that tells you anything.  Hopefully I don't get too upset when I see the 20-30 inch pictures coming out of New England.  However, this could be the start of a stormy pattern for the remainder of the month.  Next date to mark on your calendar?  Valentine's Day.   

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First in February

We didn't even have to wait for Wednesday as I predicted for Allentown to pass the ten inch mark on the season.  Yay!?  I had also mentioned before my new appreciation for the accuracy of the global model runs lately.  In fact, even as the models continue to suggest a weak snow event last week most meteorologists I noticed continued to say the model was not picking up the trough digging in.  Sure enough the model ended up being right.  Let's rewind.

Here is what I said last Sunday about this weekend we just experienced.

Possibility of an Alberta clipper swinging through over the weekend.  That would give us the standard 1-3 snows.  Models don't show anything else developing with it right now.

That was six full days before the snow.  I don't think you could really get any closer given the amount of time in between.  Everybody that reported was between 0.1 and 2.2 inches in our region.  With this in mind I think I will continue to use the model for the rest of the winter.

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THE WEEK AHEAD

By the time the system gets into our area Tuesday it will have been a full week since I first mentioned it in a post.  Once again the model is at least close to being accurate.  The clipper is still on the map but the moisture is drained by the time it gets close to us.  A period of flurries or light snow is still likely.  Southern areas should do marginally better.  Nothing more than a coating to an inch for most.

Another clipper moves to our north Wednesday night.  Would not be surprised to see another coating in some spots especially north of the valley on this one.

Starting to see a pattern?  Another clipper with more dynamics could be in play for Friday.  Temperatures could be more of a factor in this one.

Weekend looks good with moderating temperatures for those of us who enjoy that.  I could have made that prediction a month ago since it's another shiver run weekend.  However, temperatures will quickly turn cold again after that.  But that is next week.  Let's see how many half inch snowfalls we can get this week.

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