Storm Tracking

The model runs tomorrow could be a solid indicator of what we can expect Wednesday afternoon and night.  Regardless of what they end up showing it looks like many of us will get snow.

Once we get into these patterns the previous snowfall tends to be forgotten quickly.  All eyes are already set on the next storm coming unless you are living in an area that has yet to dig out from last Friday.  Again, the global model is doing a great job at picking up signs of upcoming events.  It isn't always as accurate in the track but this computer generated program can amaze.  By the time this event occurs it will have been a full seven days since I mentioned practically the exact date.

There are some good signs for people looking for snow in our area.  Like I had said earlier, it would appear highly likely that we walk away with a snowfall.  The amount is the tricky part.  However many firstcasts (as I apparently invented a new word mid sentence to describe the first forecast of an event) have our area as the target zone for the most snow.  That can change by the time I'm done with this.  Here are our scenarios.

1.) The storm moves through quickly without a ton of moisture to work with and produces a wide scale snow for everybody in the two to three inch range.

2.) The storm slows up a bit and allows for enhanced development along the coast which increases the amount of moisture.  Nothing close to a major snowstorm though.


The model I continue to look has favored the second set up.  European leans towards the first.  The picture might become a little clearer tomorrow.  The other key with this is if it slows down and brings in moisture it would also funnel in warm air on the southern side.  It doesn't seem to be a factor for us but if you are around the Philadelphia area and points south it could end up being a rainy day.  I am even a bit cautious that our temperatures could be close.  We shall see.  Latest run I have would suggest a large swath of four inches.

Final update will be up tomorrow night.

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This bottom part is my look ahead section.  I prefer not to do that when there is something already to focus on.  Except that in this case it would be to talk about the large storm that is being shown for the weekend.  Trust me on this one, it's a heck of a system.  But as I played out the run from tonight a funny thing happened.  The model took it out to the Atlantic where it strengthens, flies north and pummels Nova Scotia.  It basically misses most of the eastern U.S. coast.  If this pattern continues we might need to kiss that one goodbye.  Too early to call now.  Plus the train still has more cars.