The 2013 Blizzard

I could begin this in about ten different ways and go in about three different directions.  The historic nature of this storm is remarkable.  Years from now when looked back upon, our area and much of the rest of the state will only be a minor footnote.

I can't say I take a lot of pleasure when weather sources and outlets completely blow a forecast.  It's not an easy job.  As much as I'd like to call some groups out, I really can't.  Everybody including myself was all over the place with storm totals.  Anywhere from 1 to 14 inches was predicted by various sources.  And wouldn't you know it, we fell between those numbers.  Joking aside, as much that was missed or didn't pan out, there was an equal amount that did.  In a sense, everybody missed one part and correctly got the other.  Unfortunately for many of us, we only care to see the side that was missed because it directly affected this area.

The storm that came up the coast moved quicker than anticipated.  It also did not impact areas as west as originally thought and had a very sharp cutoff point.  To be fair that wasn't really the system that was going to give us the snow and if it did it would have been a light amount.  The second low was well to our north and moved slower.  The storms didn't transition until closer to Long Island instead of off southern New Jersey.  As it intensified the moisture filled back in during the evening giving us the accumulating snow that fell.  Once again it had a very defined cutoff point that setup right along the western side of our area.  

A look at our region.

A couple things that stand out in the final totals.  The Lehigh Valley as expected did decently well.  A solid five to six inches fell or as I'd like to think of it, the perfect amount.  Not enough to cause headaches but enough to look nice laying on the ground and for outdoor activity.  Secondly, and if I made the map larger it would really show up, check out places west of Berks County.  Lancaster had zero.  Nothing.  That's how close we were to missing out completely.  Lastly, I have long been a complainer about the snowfall reports that come out of Reading.  I am officially giving up.  Notice the various totals throughout Berks.  2.5 inches to the north in Hamburg.  A variety of 3 to 5 inch totals throughout Oley, Blandon and Fleetwood.  A 2.8 just north of the city and a 2.7 slightly south.  What does Reading "officially"report?  0.8.  Seriously?  That's what you're going with?  Okie dokie.

As far as New England goes, Connecticut seemed to take the biggest hit.  I counted nine places to hit at least 35 inches as I had stated was possible in my morning update yesterday.  Hamden was the only place that reported a total of at least 40 inches.  20 inch totals stretch from Maine to just outside New York City.  Quite an impressive storm.  Had I stuck with my original statement from Wednesday of, my guess is we will most of this one, I would have felt better about my amateur abilities.

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WHAT'S NEXT?

Don't get too excited but winter weather usually arrives by pattern.  Remember the continuous clipper activity earlier in the week and the week before.  This storm by the looks of it might have been the start of the new stormy pattern.  The NAO wasn't even negative and look what happened.  The NAO for the second half of the month is favoring a strong negative phase.

First things first though.  A steady rain will greet us at the beginning of the week.  I don't see any frozen precipitation for anybody in the region.  Temperatures should peak in the low 40's with about .60 to .70 inches of rain for most.

The 84 hour model also begins to show the first signs of whatever might find its way to us for Wednesday into Thursday.  Global doesn't bring it up the coast and instead scoots it to the south with us not seeing much of anything.  It is one to still keep an eye on though.

The storm that showed up in some past runs for next weekend forms a bit further north in the latest run and take a guess at who would take the brunt of the storm?  If you guessed New England you are correct.