My Bad

You know why you are here.  I know why you are here.

Ever since my post last night the models have continued to trend colder and pushed a bit more precipitation into our area.  Clearly we will not be seeing the historic side of this storm like people from New York to Boston.  Nevertheless we all have a Winter Storm Warning except for the extreme southern areas of the Delaware Valley.  The latest model forecast for tomorrow has just finished its run.  Join me as I now take my last look before making a prediction. 

Wow.  Once again the precipitation has taken a slight trend west.  It only means the potential for more snow for our entire area.  The further north and especially east your location is, the better the chance to see heavy snowfall.  The very heavy snow line recently has set up along the NJ - PA border.  With this in mind and the latest run, here is my call.  I reaffirm again.  MY call.  I don't care what any other sites are posting.  This is based off the latest run and last I have available to look at before making a final post.  If time allows I will update tonight as more models update or maybe in the morning.

Here you go location by location from smallest to largest:

Western Berks County:  7-10 inches

Central and Eastern Berks County:  10-12 inches

Now we get into a very tricky area.  Totals can jump 5 or 10 inches within miles.  Southern spots also could see a mixing or rain so they too are hard to predict.

Allentown:  10-15 inches

Bethlehem:  15-17 inches

Easton:  17-20 inches

Areas north of I-78 in NJ:  20-30 + inches


No joke folks.  I might be up a little later tonight to see if other models start to agree.  In fact, this run is so strong that many places in northern New Jersey could see the highest totals out of anybody.  New York to Boston would still take a huge hit.  Name any town between the two cities and almost automatically put down at least 20 inches.

What a storm this could turn out to be.  Break open the record books because this is a slam dunk for a historic nor'easter.

* Side note*  The Global solution I used yesterday is much more inclined to keep the same totals as previously reported.  And in all honesty it is probably more accurate.  The totals above I tend to think are on the high range and the ones I posted below from the national stations tend to be low.  Meet in the middle and you probably have a wide range of 6-10 like the Global states.

Also, if you check Accuweather right now, the forecast for Reading says the following : "A coating to an inch of snow... through tomorrow evening." Weather Channel maps shows Reading in the 1-3 range.  Only the national service has placed warnings for anywhere from 4-16 inches from Reading through the Lehigh Valley.

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MORNING UPDATE

The joys of shifting models.  Newest update is once again a far cry from what ran six hours before it.  New England once again takes the brunt of the storm with many locations now pushing 35 inches.

For our entire area including places right along the NJ border and across it would appear to be a much broader range of 6-12 inches from Eastern Berks through Western New Jersey.  Central Berks would be more in a 5-7 range if that.

It might be too early for some people to be awake but at least the national weather service agrees as well.  Their totals have been scaled back significantly from last night as well.  The 16 inch high range has been replaced with 8.