Round 2

And a trend we did buck.

It would appear I was accurate that this past storm was more intense than most had thought it would be.  Allentown reported 9.3.  The highest in Berks I saw was 9.2.  It was an impressive storm for something I thought was completely downplayed by a lot of weather groups.  That is in the past.  We already have watches issued for the next storm.

This one is a bit tricky but I am going to ride my streak of success.  The trend since I've been watching this storm is to keep it running colder than previous runs.  What this means isn't exactly known as warmer air will end up overriding the cold air to form a layer of ice and sleet.  My feeling is this happens later during the storm and that most of what our area deals with is the snow.  It's not as heavy as this previous storm.  Precip is ranging from 3/4 of an inch to 1.2 inches. 

As many people are sick of winter, me not included, you have to really hope that this is a snow event.  Ice is something no vehicle can overcome.  By the way, with this last storm and clearly with another one and two looming I will take home the crown for being closest to the total seasonal snowfall for the Lehigh Valley.  I was the first to take a stab with 36-39 which ended up being the highest amount.  That total will be surpassed by the next storm.  My guess at this one is 5-8 inches with minimal ice.  I only say minimal because I don't think that there will be much moisture to deal with once that transition to ice takes place. 

This is one to follow closely.  The ranges are all over the place right now.  Most are in the range of 3-8 but the great people over at TWC have us in almost no snow.  Normally I'd say you never know, but there is nothing within the model ranges that suggest this area sees nothing.  Even if they are going with a gut feeling I think this is completely inaccurate.

THE WEEKEND

Regardless of all the other storms the constant talk seems to involve the 3rd train in line.  I can't say it isn't worth discussing.  If you compare the three they are almost moving in a sense from big to bigger to biggest.  However there are still many days between now and the weekend storm. 

The best thing to do is sit and wait.  We have another storm in 24 hours.  Then we can look at the weekend.  I'm in favor of a slower moving storm that takes it more into Monday.  The latest model not only had it being slower but also had it being far smaller and tighter of a storm.  Our area would be in line for the heaviest snow however with this trend I'm more cautious to call this an early week storm instead of a weekend storm.