Trainy Conditions

The clipper pattern has transitioned to a southern train pattern.  The question for the next two weeks will be which tracks do the trains get on.

The 3 main tracks consist of the Great Lakes Line, Appalachian Regional and Coastal Express.  Each rail stops at the same locations but what they deliver differs.

The first train to kickoff the parade arrives this weekend with stops in Chicago, Detroit and Toronto.  Let's call this the Great Lakes Huron Line.  The train brings with it a batch of snow to the cities along its main route.  Areas to the east of the tracks or as it is more commonly referred to, the wrong side of the tracks, will miss the moisture and get temperature moderation delivered.

Snow Highlighted in Black Circle

Waiting at the platform to depart is train 2 on Monday.  Like with all east coast trains, scheduled deliveries and times are subject to change without warning.  This one looks to be headed in a slightly more west to east fashion in the Mid-Atlantic mainly south of the Mason Dixon line.  But could there be an unexpected stop in Philadelphia?  It's been a popular destination this winter.

The Global model continues to push the storm further north.  You can see here the heaviest precip stays south of Philadelphia.  In this shot this is closest the heaviest snow gets to our region.  However as mentioned, the trend from this model continues to push it further north which also brings it into colder air.

The North American short term run is starting to catch up to the other models.  Even last night it kept all the moisture south of Maryland.  Now we see a shift to heavy moisture up towards Philadelphia.  From a PA standpoint this is snow and probably snow for points north of Baltimore.  Talk about another fine gradient.  Might see nothing north of the Lehigh Valley and 6+ in Philadelphia. 

I can't stress enough how patterns shape weather.  I said it during the last storm to expect the heaviest snow to set up over Philadelphia and it did.  The winter ruts have Philly in the valley to keep the steady stream flowing like a river.  It would just make sense this one sets up similarly.  To my point see below.

Winter Snowfall for major east coast cities this season:

North of Philadelphia:
- Boston 33.5 inches
- New York 28.3 inches
- Hartford 23 inches

South of Philadelphia:
- Baltimore 12.7 inches
- Washington DC 8.1

PHILADELPHIA = 37.1 inches

Not difficult to figure out where the tracks are converging this year.

With some extra engines and a load of gear train 3 will be right on the heels of train 2.  The track seems to favor the Appalachian Regional though every area along all three tracks will see some type of garbage.  This locomotive brings snow, ice, rain, cold, warm, wind, sleet and just about everything else.

 

This image comes at the onset of the storm for us.  Notice the low over Ohio.  That would keep warmer air flowing north for us.  However at the beginning the storm as shown above would run into colder air first which could provide a mess.  The next few images show the low pressing east putting eastern PA in heavy precipitation before moving over NYC and then southern New England.  Lots of dynamics to influence conditions for many areas.

If you happen to miss these three trains have no fear.  There is another one coming up the tracks.

This is for next Sunday.  In the business we call this a nor'easter which I believe means giant winter storm.  No point in going into talking about this one when there are all these other trains to wait to pass by first.

The point is the next 7 days are going to be busy.  There is a very good likely hood that three storms will affect our area.  Perhaps all in major ways.

And that's how you make a weather post using train terminology.