Winds of Change

Though it is election night my title has no basis in politics but instead is an early look into a new weather pattern.  However, there is a major story before we can look into any changes.

Sitting here with a micro brew waiting patiently to hear who will win the election, it is strange to think that last week a monstrous storm was beginning to pull away from this area, leaving a trail of destruction never before seen.  And now we have a winter weather advisory.

I have been cautious since the storm first showed on the models about our area receiving any snow.  With a few hours to go I still am.  These things are tricky.  I will continue to sound like a broken record about these storms.  We are so close to the far western reaches of the storm I just can't honestly say we will see something.  Put it this way.  Draw a straight line from western Berks County east to the New Jersey coast.  The closer you get to the water, the better the chance for snow.  Of course there is also the cutoff between rain and snow so you have that too.

The latest run off the North American from tonight would give us some light snowfall.  It will update again before I go to bed which I will include the update somewhere on here.  At this point the highest snowfall would be just outside of Philadelphia say maybe Doylestown.

Of course this is not the main story.  Once again the coast of New Jersey is going to take a hard punch.  Winds will probably top off around 60 mph with heavy rain and coastal flooding.  Places that took a terrible hit last week will take another shot tomorrow.  Top it off with cold air rushing in behind that could change rain to snow in some locations by late tomorrow night.  What can you do?

There is some good news though.  The storm will kick change the pattern that we've been in recently.  The NAO is projected to be increasing positive from the 9th to the 21st.  It basically signals to me that the trough in the east will be gone meaning no storms coming up the coast and probably warmer temperatures.  As much as I love winter, there are millions of people in this area that could use a warm up.  Keep in mind, the average temperature for this time of year should be around 60 for a high.  We haven't hit 49 yet this month and won't do it until at least the weekend.  For some perspective, only three days last November had a high of 49 or less. 

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UPDATE: 10:00

Latest run is in and not a big change.  Moisture is actually pushed further west but intensity not as strong.  Storm also moved a bit south.  It won't help the hardest hit areas since they get the same wind field as the last storm with water being pushed inwards.  Heaviest precip stays from mid Jersey on south.  

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Sunday Update - Map Edition

Here we go again.  Of course nothing will compare to the last storm, but anything at this point spells trouble.  Let's look at the maps.

THIS IS A LOOK AT THE SHORT RANGE MODEL AT HOUR 84.  ARROWS ARE MINE SHOWING DIRECTION OF WIND AND OCEAN SURGE.  THIS WOULD EASILY FLOOD THE COAST.

NORTH AMERICAN SHOWS CLASSIC NOR'EASTER PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM DELAWARE TO MAINE.  NOTICE THE STORM AT AROUND 980 PRESSURE.  

EUROPE MODEL TAKES THE STORM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT IN OUR REGION.  CONSIDERING WHAT JUST HAPPENED I DON'T THINK ANYBODY CARES MUCH ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN LOCALLY.

CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER STORM THAN THE OTHERS.  THIS ONE IS AT 965 WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN.

It is still too early to get into dynamics of the storm.  It's not looking good once again for New Jersey and New York at least along the water.  I'm somewhat surprised that most models tend to agree on a coastal storm already.

This is one of the those typical eastern winter storms that will be tough to pinpoint what happens inland.  There is cold air to work with but I'm leaning against snow for anybody outside of higher elevated areas. 

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UPDATE FROM THE WEATHER SERVICE

* Safe for download using Adobe

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Retiring A Name

There is no question that there will never be another tropical storm named Sandy.  By now we have all seen the pictures of the absolute destruction that this hybrid storm delivered to much of the east coast.  In many areas things will never be the same.  It will take a long time to begin the process of cleaning up and rebuilding.  Unfortunately those of us who followed this storm knew it would be like no other.

I hesitate to ever use the term Perfect Storm.  There is no real classification for what makes a storm perfect.  This one was probably about as close as you are going to get where all the ingredients came together at the exact same time to cause a one in a hundred years storm.  It really was quite incredible, and I doubt we will ever see something like this again for our area.

Fortunately for this general area, we got pretty lucky.  Because the storm took almost direct aim at us, many of the worst parts of the storm moved in a different direction.  The heaviest rains stayed on the southwest side of the storm which was just to our south through most of Maryland and Virginia.  The winds stayed on the northeast side until the storm came onshore and bypassed over top of us.  The damage locally along with outages were sporadic.  In fact for me personally I usually see more problems after a strong line of thunderstorms pass.  However this was not the case for a lot of people.

I will start to sound like a broken record but we are moving into that time of season, hell I'm pretty sure Sandy already welcomed it, when storms start moving up the coast and give us the classic nor'easter.  In fact I'm not sure if they technically will say a hurricane made landfall in New Jersey since the storm transferred over.  Not that it matters.  Often they say it takes a storm to shift the pattern.  Did this one do it?  I guess we won't know yet.

However, the NAO shows a strong negative number early next week.  With that you get the idea that something could be brewing.  The model is starting to pick up something.  I will leave it at that.  The point I want to make is that the northeast takes punishment all winter long from these storms.  They are nothing like what just occurred but nonetheless the principal is the same.  Storms spin with the counterclockwise rotation that will push water inland.  Flooding is very common near the coast as is wind damage with winds upwards of hurricane strength.  The problem now is everything that was there to protect properties and land is gone.  The dunes are gone.  The layout of the shore has changed.  This is why, as cleanup continues, any sign of a coastal storm is going to be cause for concern.

It is going to be a long road to recovery for many places.  Some might never recover.  I wonder if some will ever come back.  The last thing they need is another onset of water rushing straight in. 

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Prep Time

As an amateur fan of weather and the unpredictability of the science behind it I've taken to my little corner of the worldwide web to make numerous posts about local, region, national and the occasional international story.  In that time I've had the opportunity to post about events such as the Joplin tornado and the historic Vermont flooding last season.  Both events I still follow today.  And within that same span I've made posts about other disastrous situations caused by the forces of weather.

One of my greatest passions involving weather is to see the formation, development and tracks of winter storms that ride the coast and produce some of the worst snowstorms for major cities in the world.  While these storms are inherently dangerous they are mainly nothing more than a nuisance for most.  As we approach the time of year when the summer/fall pattern shift into the typical winter pattern I always get excited to see what takes shape.  I'm not very happy at the moment.

Instead of covering the dangers of mother nature from afar it is looking like this area will be the one being covered by the rest of the country.  And what is forming is anything but your common storm.

Yesterday I made the genius post that my gut was saying the storm was going to either head out to sea or form to our north.  This is why you don't take random guesses based on feelings.  There was a reason I continued to say that the incredible negativity of the NAO was a huge factor with this storm.  Because of that high pressure sitting over the North Atlantic the winds will steer whatever is left of the hurricane directly into some area of the northeast.  That appears to not even be up for debate anymore.  The only question is where.

The latest model, which the NWS apparently also agrees, shows the storm as a hurricane hitting New Jersey sometime between late Monday and early Tuesday.  Here are two images that show projected landfall.

The storm at this point started to make a westward turn after continually moving north and even slightly east.  You can see the heavy precip over DE, NJ, PA and eastern MD.  Also take note of the black isobar lines that indicate wind strength.  The closer together, the windier the storm.  Needless to say this would be a hell of a hit for a lot of people including all the major cities because we also have to remember storm surge will be a massive issue.    

The second image follows the first and shows Sandy making landfall in central NJ.  It starts to become hard to see places anymore with all the lines.  However look at the winds and how far they extend.  We have to remember that these systems are usually very large and most states in the northeast are relatively small.  Even if the storm misses you directly it will still cause problems with wind and rain. 




I want to highlight something else about this storm for some perspective.  I know there are still a few days before this thing makes an impact for us but you have to prepare now for a worst case scenario as this could be a historic storm.  Notice the 943 and 942 in red under the L in these images.  That is the pressure of the storm.  The lower the number the stronger and more intense the storm is.  Normal pressure on a sunny, clear day is 1012.  That number is anything but close to that.  Katrina when it hit New Orleans was at 920.  The pressure on this storm if this would end up being accurate would normally equate to a category four hurricane.  Think about that for a moment.  That is the kind of energy this storm will have when it slams into the coast.

I'm not going to post all the other models mainly because every one I have the ability to look at shows the same thing.  Anywhere from southern NJ to New York City would be in line for landfall.  These scenarios would be horrible.

The good news is there is still a good 72 hours before we know for sure what is going to happen with this storm.  The bad news is that as each day goes by and the model runs become fewer and fewer the better the chance of somebody taking a major hit from Maryland to Massachusetts.

Here is the plan.  Pay attention to the forecast.  Tomorrow night should be a good indicator.  By Saturday we should have a very good estimate of where the storm will hit and the likely impacts.  Begin the initial preparations (batteries, candles, extra water) until we know more.  I of course will be following very closely.    

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