Round 2

And a trend we did buck.

It would appear I was accurate that this past storm was more intense than most had thought it would be.  Allentown reported 9.3.  The highest in Berks I saw was 9.2.  It was an impressive storm for something I thought was completely downplayed by a lot of weather groups.  That is in the past.  We already have watches issued for the next storm.

This one is a bit tricky but I am going to ride my streak of success.  The trend since I've been watching this storm is to keep it running colder than previous runs.  What this means isn't exactly known as warmer air will end up overriding the cold air to form a layer of ice and sleet.  My feeling is this happens later during the storm and that most of what our area deals with is the snow.  It's not as heavy as this previous storm.  Precip is ranging from 3/4 of an inch to 1.2 inches. 

As many people are sick of winter, me not included, you have to really hope that this is a snow event.  Ice is something no vehicle can overcome.  By the way, with this last storm and clearly with another one and two looming I will take home the crown for being closest to the total seasonal snowfall for the Lehigh Valley.  I was the first to take a stab with 36-39 which ended up being the highest amount.  That total will be surpassed by the next storm.  My guess at this one is 5-8 inches with minimal ice.  I only say minimal because I don't think that there will be much moisture to deal with once that transition to ice takes place. 

This is one to follow closely.  The ranges are all over the place right now.  Most are in the range of 3-8 but the great people over at TWC have us in almost no snow.  Normally I'd say you never know, but there is nothing within the model ranges that suggest this area sees nothing.  Even if they are going with a gut feeling I think this is completely inaccurate.

THE WEEKEND

Regardless of all the other storms the constant talk seems to involve the 3rd train in line.  I can't say it isn't worth discussing.  If you compare the three they are almost moving in a sense from big to bigger to biggest.  However there are still many days between now and the weekend storm. 

The best thing to do is sit and wait.  We have another storm in 24 hours.  Then we can look at the weekend.  I'm in favor of a slower moving storm that takes it more into Monday.  The latest model not only had it being slower but also had it being far smaller and tighter of a storm.  Our area would be in line for the heaviest snow however with this trend I'm more cautious to call this an early week storm instead of a weekend storm. 

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Round 1

Every single run of the short term model yesterday and today kept pushing this one north.  Somebody is going to hit 12 inches.  Either that or I'm completely inaccurate as the local weather service keeps us lower than what I would suggest as basically everybody is in the 4-6 inch range.

This is the finally run before I go to bed.  That's pretty impressive.  The good thing is it moves quickly and the worst conditions are after the morning drive and before the evening commute.  The bad news is this has the makings for a wide range of 8-12 inches of a heavier snow than we had been seeing.  Total rainfall amounts are coming in at 1 to almost 1.5 inches for much of the area especially south of Allentown and Reading.  This would equate to about 10-12 inches.  I can't imagine they don't change the snowfall amounts and increase the advisories unless I'm missing something.


The second storm already starts making the short term forecast map.  I'm a bit intrigued by this one as well as it seems to hold the wintry side of things longer than I think was originally anticipated.  That could be a good thing if we can avoid a lot of the ice and stick with mainly snow.  That one is far more complicated than the one tomorrow which is completely a snow event.

The weekend storm is still a complete unknown.  I can't figure out if there are two systems moving in together or if a transition occurs or if it is a single tracking storm moving right up the mountains.  Like I said in previous posts, it's fun to follow but not when there are two storms ahead of it.

Let's see what we get tomorrow.  We seem to be right on the cusp of many of these storms.  This one could buck that trend.

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Trainy Conditions

The clipper pattern has transitioned to a southern train pattern.  The question for the next two weeks will be which tracks do the trains get on.

The 3 main tracks consist of the Great Lakes Line, Appalachian Regional and Coastal Express.  Each rail stops at the same locations but what they deliver differs.

The first train to kickoff the parade arrives this weekend with stops in Chicago, Detroit and Toronto.  Let's call this the Great Lakes Huron Line.  The train brings with it a batch of snow to the cities along its main route.  Areas to the east of the tracks or as it is more commonly referred to, the wrong side of the tracks, will miss the moisture and get temperature moderation delivered.

Snow Highlighted in Black Circle

Waiting at the platform to depart is train 2 on Monday.  Like with all east coast trains, scheduled deliveries and times are subject to change without warning.  This one looks to be headed in a slightly more west to east fashion in the Mid-Atlantic mainly south of the Mason Dixon line.  But could there be an unexpected stop in Philadelphia?  It's been a popular destination this winter.

The Global model continues to push the storm further north.  You can see here the heaviest precip stays south of Philadelphia.  In this shot this is closest the heaviest snow gets to our region.  However as mentioned, the trend from this model continues to push it further north which also brings it into colder air.

The North American short term run is starting to catch up to the other models.  Even last night it kept all the moisture south of Maryland.  Now we see a shift to heavy moisture up towards Philadelphia.  From a PA standpoint this is snow and probably snow for points north of Baltimore.  Talk about another fine gradient.  Might see nothing north of the Lehigh Valley and 6+ in Philadelphia. 

I can't stress enough how patterns shape weather.  I said it during the last storm to expect the heaviest snow to set up over Philadelphia and it did.  The winter ruts have Philly in the valley to keep the steady stream flowing like a river.  It would just make sense this one sets up similarly.  To my point see below.

Winter Snowfall for major east coast cities this season:

North of Philadelphia:
- Boston 33.5 inches
- New York 28.3 inches
- Hartford 23 inches

South of Philadelphia:
- Baltimore 12.7 inches
- Washington DC 8.1

PHILADELPHIA = 37.1 inches

Not difficult to figure out where the tracks are converging this year.

With some extra engines and a load of gear train 3 will be right on the heels of train 2.  The track seems to favor the Appalachian Regional though every area along all three tracks will see some type of garbage.  This locomotive brings snow, ice, rain, cold, warm, wind, sleet and just about everything else.

 

This image comes at the onset of the storm for us.  Notice the low over Ohio.  That would keep warmer air flowing north for us.  However at the beginning the storm as shown above would run into colder air first which could provide a mess.  The next few images show the low pressing east putting eastern PA in heavy precipitation before moving over NYC and then southern New England.  Lots of dynamics to influence conditions for many areas.

If you happen to miss these three trains have no fear.  There is another one coming up the tracks.

This is for next Sunday.  In the business we call this a nor'easter which I believe means giant winter storm.  No point in going into talking about this one when there are all these other trains to wait to pass by first.

The point is the next 7 days are going to be busy.  There is a very good likely hood that three storms will affect our area.  Perhaps all in major ways.

And that's how you make a weather post using train terminology.

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A Running Hike

This past weekend (a week ago) many of us awoke to yet another fresh batch of snow Saturday morning.  I had planned for a few days to use the weekend to run on a trail, something I haven't done since October.  The most likely destination would be the Schuylkill River Trail near Hamburg.  Except I had something different in mind.

I pulled into the parking area still covered in fresh snow from the night before.  It was noticeably deeper than from where I had started at home.  Also noticeable was the lack of cars.  As in I'm the only one there.

The pictures end here.  I would have had some awesome shots, but as I now use my watch as my guide the phone/camera stays locked in the car.

Out I headed along the densely tree lined path of untouched snow.  The wind every so often would rattle the fluffy snow off tree branches adding to the picturesque scenery.  Two miles in I stopped.  Now the decision.

As mentioned before I haven't been on a trail in months.  Running the path in itself was a change.  Doing anything with challenging terrain and elevation changes hadn't been done since my last Mount Penn trail run.  That's why during the week I decided to run the Appalachian Trail.

Here it is in front of me.  The issue now is I hadn't planned on doing the trail in snow.  It's slippery.  I can't see obstacles.  And I've never been on it before.  But here I am and there it is.  Let's go.

I hiked the first three quarters of a mile.  I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be runnable for me regardless of the snow.  I didn't go more than a mile onto the trail.  This was more of a scouting hike/run for the future.  According to the watch which is certainly accurate the ascent was 850 feet.  Again, this is in less than a mile.  I reached 1,266 feet.  Had I continued I'm sure I would have hit at least 1,400 in another mile.  What's nice to know is that once you reach this level the trail flattens out to a point that is definitely runnable.  I however turned around.

Having not done anything close to this type of climbing in awhile I could already feel my climbing muscles straining.  However I did decide to run back down to the river trail.  It was interesting to say the least.  No real issues except I had to run almost sideways at some points to keep from completely sliding down the trail.  And if I did start to slide I had virtually nothing to keep me from going for a long and uncomfortable ride.  It's funny how long it takes to go up and how quickly I'm back at the bottom.  Either way it was well worth it.  At my highest point the snow was stuck to everything.  It was almost as if all of it that fell glued on to every tree and ground shrub there was on the mountain.  Would have made for a cool picture.

As I ran back on the trial towards my car I realized at some point during my descent I had injured the bottom of my left foot as now each step was becoming more painful.  I don't know what it was or how it happened, but it didn't become an issue until I was on the flat trail.  Outside of that you really feel the climb in your upper legs. 

If you ever want to get away head for the woods.  It wasn't until I had almost reached the parking lot before I saw another human.  I probably could have went miles on the trail without seeing anybody.  Didn't even see any animals.  Plus it was dead quiet.

I probably would have been back there today enjoying another snowy run as a few more inches fell.  Instead I was resting for the run that prompted this trail test in the first place.  Tomorrow is the first of the 2014 Mt. Penn trail runs.  It's not going to be pretty, but that's kind of the point.  The actual temperature should be around 10 with somewhere between 6 and 10 inches of snow on the ground.  What else would you rather be doing on a Sunday morning?

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