Flooding Threat

It's not often that flood watches are posted this early, but the entire area is currently under one since this morning.  These will more than likely be updated as we get closer to Thursday when the rain will be coming down hard and heavy. 

One thing we haven't dealt with is heavy rains on top of melting snow like places in New England have seen.  That kept the flooding threat relatively low for our area.  That won't be the case Thursday.  Rivers are already higher than normal, the ground is moist and a lot of rain is coming.  With what is predicted, Allentown and Reading could surpass their monthly rainfall average by the weekend.  While it appears the first half of March will be wetter than the second, I wouldn't be surprised to see monthly totals approaching six inches.

   This is the GFS forecast for Thursday night.  You can see by the guide at the bottom how intense and heavy that rain would be.  This merely represents intensity and not totals.  The NAM, short range model, had this very heavy band developing further east. 

In trying to cover a little bit of everything especially while we are in this long transitional phase, we have to remember some basic weather pattern rules this time of year.  The first is that the middle ground of these storms tend to be wet, warm and windy except at the beginning or the end where cold air is still in place or sweeping in.  Think of this area as the battle ground of the two seasons.  Winter wins along the northern part of the storm giving snow or mixes.  Spring wins the southern section where the warm, moist air pumps in from the gulf. 

You end up with maps like this for Wednesday from The Weather Channel

Louisiana will be the spot for storms and tornadoes.  Wisconsin, specifically I'll go with Green Bay, wins out for the snow.  Let's hope that if there are tornadoes tomorrow, they target areas where nobody lives.