New Orleans

Last time I posted I made mention that the models were showing more of a hit to Louisiana even though weather services were still taking the storm into Florida.  I also mentioned that there must be something I wasn't seeing that kept the professionals from moving the track.  Well sure enough the track moved yesterday over towards Louisiana.  And now we can say with certainty that New Orleans is about to take on a lot of water.

See normally I don't put a lot of stock into what I see for many reasons.  For one, and probably the biggest, I have access to what I can assume is about 1% of the maps, charts and models that the pros do.  There are so many things that are not accessible by the public that trying to make a forecast is incredibly hard.  However there are a lot of models out there that can give you a general idea.  Part two of my reasoning is I have little experience and about zero educational background other than having a general interest.  And of course, I spend roughly an hour putting this together looking at runs. 

But now that Isaac officially seems to have a target area, let's focus on that.  Here are my concerns having not seen a single thing about the storm since this morning but looking at all my maps and junk. 

• This system is moving slow and is quite large.  I could give a rats ass about intensity.  When you are talking about an area as low in elevation as parts of the gulf coast are, there are going to be problems.
•  The storm surge is going to be an issue as this thing continues to churn water up towards places like Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.  Have to remember that storm surge is one of is not the most dangerous parts of a storm.  Add in low elevation and again, problems.
•  Isaac is moving at a snails pace.  Somebody is going to get a boat load of rain.  I will throw it out there now.  Somebody gets in the range of 22-25 inches of rain.  Probably in Mississippi.
•  New Orleans is at this point almost a direct target.  Winds should top out in the 80 mph range.  Not good for a large city.
•  The northeast quadrant of the storm is generally where you see the worst of the weather and damage.  We would place that area somewhere between New Orleans and Gulfport, Mississippi.  Basically in some of the hardest hit areas from Katrina. 

Clearly this storm is no Katrina but the fact that it is another hurricane hitting a vulnerable spot practically 7 years to the day of the infamous storm will surely draw minor comparisons.  Put it this way.  Nothing good ever comes from taking the brunt of a hurricane.


And now for the not-so-important forecast for the big game.  If anything I can at least say the temps haven't been swinging back and forth.  Still looks like a mild day.  I haven't closed the book on getting any rain but I would be surprised at this point.