Too Soon?

It's that time of year again.  We are officially close enough for prognosticators to start to incorrectly predict what will happen this winter.  Wonder how many times it will change before the first actual snow?

Judging by last year the first snow is a little over two months away.  Of course this is a new season.  While trying to predict something this far in advance is a tall order it is not completely unreasonable.  Last year the Accuweather group changed their map what seemed like a dozen times to try and increase credibility.  But the year before the winter prediction map that came out in summer was surprisingly, even shockingly accurate.  Patterns do start to develop that can start to lead to certain trends.  Factor in experts and past history and I can at least say they know more than the average bear when it comes to this kind of stuff.

Mark the calendar or look back at this post which will comically enough have a 2012-13 winter label on it because here is the first map for the upcoming winter season. 

There you have it folks.  Dust off the shovels and move that winter clothing towards the front of the closest.  Looks like somebody is expecting some coastal storms this year.  Need a run down?  There is still plenty of time for that.  It's a La Nina El Nino thing.  Go figure. 


No need to discuss all this now.  We still have the heart of hurricane season to go through.  Which by the way, I recently ran through the models (something I am guilty of hardly ever doing unless it is winter) and saw that one day the model had a significant storm hitting near the Houston area and today it was a weaker storm hitting south Florida.  Either way a named storm is forming and heading west.

My real reason for checking the model was to hopefully see some good news regarding the annual pilgrimage to watch Penn State on the 1st.  That and I want to see how many times it can possibly change in the next 10 or so days.  Right now I guess I'm in luck.  Temps are looking seasonably cool though both yesterday and today showed no rain.  However, there was also a shot of very warm air just prior to the weekend coming in from the west.  As in + 90.  Got to keep checking the models and not look at any actual forecasts. 

Ran the latest model.  Scratch the seasonably cool.  Probably would scale back on the 90's too.  The forever changing computers.