Storm Watch

To say the long range forecast model is accurate would be a massive stretch.  You might as well throw out anything predicted yesterday and probably what I am writing now.  But I have checked more models out and have some new information on the storm.

The track has continually progressed west.  The Keys look to take somewhat of a direct hit from Isaac.  If there is a consolation the storm won't be very strong or organized at that point.  However there will be a lot of rain and persistent 40-50 mph winds is bound to cause problems including any storm surge. 

The more I see the tracks of three different models tend to agree that the west coast of Florida misses out on most of this.  Even the rainfall and wind would be on the lesser side of things.  The panhandle is a different story.  If I am picking a place now to be on guard it would be Pensacola.  The storm when it hits will be significantly stronger than it is now.

Who knows where it will actually hit.  The Canadian and Global runs show a hit closer to Louisiana and the Naval run is right around Alabama.  All the tracks I've seen from weather services don't indicate a hit for places that far west.  So I will assume there is something else steering it towards the Pensacola area.

If you go by these runs there is no way the storm would get to this area by Saturday.  But this stuff changes every 12 hours.  If the runs that have it trending west are wrong, the storm would arrive earlier than suggest for us.  Wouldn't mind some clouds or rain since the temps continue to look warmer than I would prefer.  I said I would take the over on the temp and I'm keeping with that one. 

Almost forgot.  Screwing around looking at the maps yesterday I noticed something important at least to me.  A county in Montana had a winter weather advisory.  Can cross that one off the list of signs that winter is approaching.