Worth A Look

Really wanted to skip the blog due to lack of time tonight but the model run is too interesting not to show.  Instead I will bullet point the changes.

• Major track change (in my opinion) for Isaac.  The storm still brushes south Florida then heads into the gulf.  The storm gets a chance to intensify before making landfall along the Mississippi-Alabama border.
• The further push west also means a later in the week landfall.  As of now the model has it coming onshore on Wednesday.  
• Even after landfall the storm keeps a northwest trajectory before being picked up in the jet stream moving the storm in our direction

 What does that mean for us?  Take a look at this image of the current forecast for the morning of September 1st.

Well what do we have here?  Is this likely to happen?  No.  Couple things I see that would make this picture above not very likely.  The first is I don't see the storm moving as far west as the model does once it comes on land.  Secondly, there continues to appear to be high pressure either over our area or at least close by which could help to block any movement.  Third, I think the jet will pick it up and move it quicker than the current model suggests so that even if we would be impacted it would be before the weekend.

The fun of long range models.  And I only used one for all of this jargon.