Wet Start

The work week will start the same way it ended.  Rainy.  I don't have a lot of time for discussions, so I will shorten it down with quick explanations and maps.  Most of our area is under a Flood Watch.  The Poconos are under a Freezing Rain Advisory.  Winter is still hanging on in some places.  Off to the maps.

 

Here is the GFS model for tomorrow.  Notice the two lows, one in NY and the other in Kentucky.  It appears that both will cause two different pockets of rain.  The first, in blue under the 997 in NE PA shows the heavier showers.  Notice it appears to be north of most of our area.  I think this is fairly accurate in that the heavier precip falls to our north but still delivers a good 3/4 of an inch.

This would be the second wave in the afternoon that had been over Kentucky.  You can see the heavier swath of rain.  This would translate into more intense downpours, think almost like bands of rain instead of one big pocket like the earlier one.

 Again, as we push towards the seasonal transition period, we will see the threat of tornadoes increase.  With pockets of warm, moist air tomorrow, the red circled area shows the best chance of severe weather.  I will try to get a severe weather report tomorrow to see if this map was accurate for damaging winds, hail or tornadoes.

By Tuesday things will quiet down and should stay quiet for the remainder of the week with at least moderate temps for a day or two before they cool down again by the end of the week.  The weekend is not looking so good with overcast days and another decent rain event.

 

Here we have the model for next weekend, predominantly Sunday though rain would show up Saturday too.  Once again we see that dark blue over eastern PA and much of NJ indicating a heavy rainfall.  We even see a low forming off North Carolina almost like a winter storm.  Notice the line in this case would show a sweeping cold front.  Cold enough to change moisture over?  Can't tell yet but we really don't see that often.

I had made mention and showed a model image for a big storm around March 9th or 10th.  I also said it was extremely unlikely.  A mere couple of days later the storm is virtually not even on the map.  There is still something there in terms of precip but not anything worthy of posting on here.  Does it spell the end of winter?

Ha.  The simple answer to our frustrated friends... Nope.