Allentown Wins

Very quick update before I head out into town.

Allentown finished with 31.9 inches.  I have yet to find any other town within our region who has reported more.  Below is courtesy of Philly.com

By the way I just noticed the dot marking the airport is not accurate.  You have to move it north and a bit east.  As I've mentioned before if you are standing at the PPL Center in Allentown, you are further away from the official reporting station for the city than I am sitting in my living room in Bethlehem.

Also, my title implies Allentown wins something.  They don't.  They just happened to have the highest totals.  The prize is a lot of shoveling with extra weight.

Wanted to quickly touch base on this week.  Nothing the rest of the year will compare to this storm, but it's likely the next rounds of winter weather will occur during the week instead of a time many people were off.

Tuesday into Wednesday needs to be monitored.  Nothing serious but there is an interesting dynamic setting up in the Baltimore to Philadelphia area.  Go figure.  Also, places to the north of Philadelphia (Allentown/Poconos) might have to deal with a very minor ice threat.  Then, monitoring an Alberta clipper for Friday which appears more like an Ontario clipper.  Total accumulations look like less than an inch.  Big whoop.

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WE DID IT

31.7 INCHES



Allentown is the only town/city reporting official or unofficial totals of more than 30 inches.  The report came in an hour ago as light snow continues to fall.  Totals will increase slightly.


Philadelphia is reporting 20.8.

New York City is over 27 inches.

Washington D.C. is at 28 inches.

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EPIC SNOW

This is going to be one to remember.  I recently got back from my journey around town.  There is a lot of snow.  I hope to walk around later if the snow slows down for more pictures.  The intensity over the last two hours has been insane.  My guess right now is around 18 inches.

I'm not going to get into specifics about my run/walk/hike.  However I came back through town on Market Street then on to Main and Spring.  I had been on the trail prior to that.  Word of advice.  Unless it's an emergency or you have a plow attached to your vehicle, STAY OFF THE FUCKING ROADS.

Luckily for morons there are people kind enough to help out.  Myself along with many other neighborhood locals and two other runners, helped numerous people stuck between Main and Spring streets.  In fact, I spent more time doing that than actually jogging.  It's nice to see the community come together but come on.

Just coming in now...

Allentown is in the lead for cities in our region.  They have reported 21.2 inches so far and well on the way to topping the 30 inch mark.  No other town has officially reported over 20.  Philadelphia is at 17.7.  I will post pictures soon from my outing and then more when I head out later.  

 

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8:00 AM Totals

Reports are starting to come in as of this Saturday morning January 23, 2016. 

Airports


PHILADELPHIA:  13 inches

ALLENTOWN:  9.4 inches

NEW CASTLE, DE:  9.7 inches

ATLANTIC CITY:  9 inches



Various Confirmed Totals


Mount Holly NWS:  11 inches

Flemington:  9.8 inches



There are also many spots that cannot be confirmed that are reporting over a foot which include Topton, King of Prussia and West Chester.

Expect 8-12 inches additional through the rest of the day for many of these locations.

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Local Updates

As in most storms even as we wake up to find drifting snow banks and sustained winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour, updates to maps are still taking place.  Winter storm warnings have extended north and west to include places like Scranton and State College.  Blizzard warnings extend throughout Philadelphia and the suburbs to Lancaster and much of New Jersey.

Totals are also on the rise after they had been rising consistently yesterday.  You can now add all of Berks and Allentown to the 18-24 inch club.  The storm will now take aim at a top 5 place in biggest snowstorms in the recorded history of Allentown.  So yeah, my prediction will be off by a little bit.

This is going to be an impossible snowstorm to measure for the average joe.  I'm still not sure how they figure totals out when winds are this strong.  It appears I might be up too early again to see updated reports come in.  As long as the storm is still cranking I am only focusing on our area.  We can recap the whole even when the sun comes out.  I'm also only looking for totals from official reporting stations because of the difficulty in measuring with the blowing of snow.

Looking at local power outages the numbers are currently low.  PPL is reporting about 2,000 in the Lehigh Valley while Met-Ed shows similar numbers in various locations.

I will try to trek about later if we get into a bit of a lull.

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The Fun Begins

It seems likely that the totals I posted this morning could be a bit off especially as the trends today have continued to push north.  Since I posted all the other predictions based off models I will not change my totals.  If I'm way off so be it.

The fun I reference in the title is in relation to the storm cut off.  Where will it setup?  Where is the dividing line between very little and very lot?  And yes I know that's not proper English, but I've been up at 5 every morning and probably will again tomorrow.  Now it's my turn to kick back and enjoy.

Fun fact number one.  I mentioned in a previous post the dry air and my concerns.  I just got back from running here in Bethlehem.  The air is dry and numbing.  No big surprise there.  But according to my news feed and other reports it started snowing in parts of Berks County at 5:30.  It's 8:30 now as I sit near my large living room window and there has not been a single flake of snow yet.

So I did what any amateur meteorologist would do and checked the local observations.

Look at Reading and see all the variables that stand out.  SNOW.  22 degrees (snow cooled temperature).  83% humidity as the atmosphere starts to fill with liquid.  Visibility approaching zero.

Now for the other side of the coin.

Humidity at 35% a clear sign the air is still very dry even if snow is falling at higher altitudes.  5 degrees warmer in temperature because of the lack of moisture.  Visibility is a perfect 10 miles.

The distance between the Reading and Allentown airports where this information comes from is 33 miles if you made a straight line northeast.  I have a feeling you will be able to draw a lot of 33 mile lines in various directions and get a lot of different results by the time this one is over.

As we approach 9:00 I thought maybe I'd end up looking out the window and seeing the snow whip around as I end this post.  Still nothing.  Not only that but I can look west and still clearly see the lights in Allentown.

****

Quick Note.  With the slight northern shift and heavy band of snow pushing in from the east, models are now starting to favor the Lehigh Valley for more snow than areas to the south and west because of their eastern position.  For the first time the GFS shows higher totals in Allentown than Reading.

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Last Morning Update

I still feel it's too early for predictions even though we are roughly 18 hours away from seeing snowfall.  However, since I've continued to post in the morning I will be taking all the various models and predictions and compiling a list of prediction totals for the large cities of the area.

At the beginning of this week you figured the watches and warnings map would be colorful.  There are winter storm warnings from Louisiana to New York.  Impressive.  I didn't look at models last night but did look at the areas in the watches and warnings.  These have extended just a bit north.  Still a fine line.  North of Lehigh and Northampton counties you get into an advisory and north of that is absolutely nothing.  Earlier in the week I mentioned the potential for blizzard conditions.  Baltimore, D.C., Philadelphia and New York are the unlucky ones this time.  Nasty conditions.

Let's get into the totals.  I'm skipping the local news total since they do ranges and NOAA because I don't think they have updated from last night.

European:  For the first time this week we see a northern trend.  The line between heavy snow and light snow is basically central Monroe county.  This is roughly 30-40 miles north of Allentown.  That is a tight line.

Allentown:  11 inches
Reading:  13 inches
Philadelphia:  16 inches

Canadian:  You know, I kind of thought this morning might finally give a good indication of what is going to happen and then I start looking at these morning runs.  This model has again shifted south.  Northampton County barely holds onto the heavy snow.  North of that you talk about a couple inches.

Allentown:  9 inches
Reading:  12 inches
Philadelphia:  19 inches

GFS:  A very slight trend north compared to previous runs.  Again Monroe is the dividing line.  They would see two inches according to this run.  Maybe what is more impressive is the incredibly heavy snow they show for DC and Baltimore.  You are talking 30 inches or more.

Allentown:  11 inches
Reading:  14 inches
Philadelphia:  13 inches  

NAM:  It's my first time posting this one because it's the first time the model has been able to pick up the snowfall for our area since I post early in the morning.  This is the short term model that only goes out 2 1/2 days.  Very similar to the others with the exact same dividing line.

Allentown:  10 inches
Reading:  11 inches
Philadelphia:  17 inches

Regardless of what happens this is going to be fascinating to watch unfold.  Many areas are in the zone to get slammed.  That won't change.  If you sit in Berks County or the Lehigh Valley you will be on the edge of your seat especially the further north you go.  All this time spent trying to figure out what the storm will do and you won't know until it is on our doorstep.  It just so happens we are the ones right on the border this time.  If this was Baltimore or even Philadelphia I'd be confident in giving numbers.

Let me talk to the Lehigh Valley first (especially the people in the northern areas) while everyone else can step away for a minute.  These are the people on the fringe.  It's a very odd place to be.  No doubt there could be a few inches, a foot or nothing.  My concern is there is a lot more working against us than with us.  One is dry air that could really cut into the storm.  Where the radar shows it snowing but it's not actually doing anything.  You need the atmosphere to moisten up which comes with prolonged snowfall or heavy snowfall.  The second problem is the track.  It struggles to push further north thanks to a blocking high.  That has been constant in most recent runs.  It also forces the storm east which helps portions of New Jersey and New York pick up heavy snow but again cuts off those high totals.  The one benefit to this storm is how slow it moves once it arrives.  This is what will help create huge totals for places to our south and southwest.

The confidence in larger snowfall totals in Berks, for now, is on the rise.  The heavy snowfall makes it that far north before quickly cutting off.  Philadelphia is primed for a good one.  That shouldn't change.

I might have to adjust totals tonight before this starts since we are over 12 hours away and there are more model runs to come out.

Allentown:  6.4 inches
Reading:  10.7 inches
Philadelphia:  17.1 inches

I'm in the camp where every 25 miles north between Philadelphia and the Poconos has the potential for massive differences.

By the way, not sure I've mentioned the Weather Channel at all yet this week which will surely have people all over the region.  Here our their latest projections.

Philadelphia:  18-24 inches
Reading (Areas north of the Turnpike and south of I-78):  12-18 inches
Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton (Areas just north of I-78):  8-12 inches

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Morning Update Part 3

This is the first update I am doing where I did not take a look at any of the afternoon or evening models yesterday.  In these situations sometimes you need to step back.  It's the same reason I believe posting snow totals now isn't worth it.  By Friday morning a complete shift could occur and you end up being off by 10 inches.  Let the storm take shape.

The Euro has been the one model that keeps forecasters from feeling confident about totals.  It's not hard to see why.  The southern shift has happened again and quite frankly I'm not that surprised.  Yesterday I started to favor the more southern route for this storm which could keep us on the outside looking in.  Before I dive into that let me at least look at the other models to see if they are trending in that direction as well.

New Euro totals from last nights run below.  Bordering now on 3-6 inches.

Recall that the Canadian model has been pretty robust over the last two days.  It did trend a bit south yesterday morning but kept us with a sizable amount.  Part of the fun in this is not actually looking at the model until I write the paragraph.  It has shifted south again.  This is actually a bit concerning.  The totals remain high for the area, but the moisture struggles to reach us.  Lancaster comes in at 28 inches, the highest so far of the three runs I've posted.  But look at Monroe county just north of Northampton.

They show 4 inches while Allentown is at 18.  On Tuesday Monroe was at 14, yesterday 9, then today 4.  What happens tomorrow?  Another shift south and Allentown is next in line to see a drastic reduction in totals.

Off to the GFS which hopefully has updated to at least Sunday.  This is the consistent model that has shown a foot of snow for the area.  If this has progressed south the trend is quite clear.  Wow.  A bit stunned.  Doesn't get much clearer than that.  Further south again.  We are now barely holding onto any snow.

These trends are why you wait to make predictions when you are on the cusp of the storm.  So here's what's going to happen today.  All the forecasters who are currently still sleeping will wake up and see the trend which will likely lead to some serious discussion.  Snowfall maps will be changed.

For instance.  Here is NOAA.  According to the latest models, which is what most people base predictions off of, this would need some serious altering.

This is why I choose not to post my own opinions about totals until more information comes in.  By tonight and especially by tomorrow morning we will have a much better understanding of what we are dealing with.  Or in this case, possibly not dealing with.  

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Morning Update 2

It comes as little surprise that once the storm hit the west coast the models began to disagree.  The trend even yesterday morning took the heaviest snowfall slightly south of previous runs.  Tracking every run can be a headache.  That's why I'd recommend picking a certain run time and sticking with it each day so you can see the difference in a 24 hour window.  The talk yesterday was of confusion with the Euro.  I checked it last night and yes, the run basically showed no snow for our area.  This morning the story changed back.

Here is a look at the same models posted yesterday morning.

The Euro above remains consistent.  That line to the north is still something to really watch.  I'm not sure how far north this storm gets but it's looking better each day that if you want bigger snow totals you have to go south.  Quite frankly I'm pleased to see how similar this is to yesterday.  We don't get rocked, but we still see a solid snowstorm.

If you look at the Canadian from yesterday you will clearly see a shift to the south as far as the northern edge of the snow goes.  In fact it's not all that different from the Euro run.  The exception is this model keeps our area in heavy snow. 

The GFS remains consistent with the intensity of the storm.  Again the totals are similar to yesterday.  The storm has a tremendous amount of moisture as it moves into our area, slows down a bit as high pressure blocks off a northern escape and give us a prolonged snowfall. 

If you took all the models and averaged them out you would be looking at 15 to 16 inches of snow.  By this evening I think we will know a lot more.  Let the information from today come in before starting to narrow down snow totals.  Even today might be a bit early. 

I will try to do another post if I have time tonight.  Otherwise I will be back with my early morning update part three.

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Here We Go

It appears likely that somebody is going to get quite a snowstorm Friday into Saturday.  Given that we are now three days away we can start to look into this a bit more.  My guess is that we should get a good idea of the path of the storm by tomorrow night.

Overnight the European model shifted a bit to the south.  Normally it's not a big deal but in a storm like this where two feet of snow is possible, any shift will have large implications.  Below are the snowfall totals with this run.

While the patch of grayish blue is noticeable with totals at three feet, I'm more intrigued by the cut off line.  If you like snow that's a place you do not want to be near.  Either way these are impressive totals for places from Philadelphia to D.C.  Lehigh Valley and Berks fall into the 10-14 inch range.


The Canadian model has remained consistent throwing back a lot of moisture inland.  The model suggests a similar area gets hit the hardest somewhere in the PA/MD vicinity.  The main difference is the cutoff line from the storm is well north and west compared to the European.  The snowfall totals are below.

Here we see places like Harrisburg and Baltimore in the 20+ inch range.  Our area shows totals from 10 to 18 inches.

Then there is our old friend the GFS.  I end with this one not because of its poor track record but because if you get up at 5:06 the model is in the middle of updating.  They too have shifted a bit to the south.  If you live in Baltimore you'd be pretty excited this morning.  Each model had over 20 inches of snow for that area.  Storm also seems to be moving a little faster than before.

This model has consistently shown the best totals for our area.  Here you seen numbers ranging from 17 to 20 inches.  We will see if that trend continues should I post tomorrow morning.


Before the flags start to wave and the excitement ramps up I'd like to point out the serious nature of these events regardless of what happens.  This isn't going to be one of those pretty snows you go out for a walk in.  This could very well turn into a classic blizzard for some areas.  Right now we would be one of those areas.  Aside from heavy snowfall the one clear distinction between a normal snowstorm and a blizzard are the winds.  It is going to be very windy.  Power outages and tree damage are very likely somewhere in the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic.  The bigger concern could end up becoming anything but snow related.  The onshore winds from the ocean in places like New Jersey could top out at 60 miles per hour.  There is going to be a very serious threat of coastal flooding depending on this track. 

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Sunday Morning Update

If you can remember all the way to yesterday morning you would have seen the lack of snow in our region according to the models for the next 10 days.  As models often do things changed within the day.  Had I posted the run from last night it would have been quite a different story.  Not only that but this coastal system continued to somehow press closer.

Once again things are looking different this morning.  The western track of this second system again moved west.  I'd expect most of the region to see light snow or flurries today.  The coastal parts of New Jersey towards Atlantic City should expect enough to coat the ground. 

What about next weekend?  Here is the latest suggestion.

That one inch project snowfall output has turned quickly to 7-10 inches.

I mentioned the Euro snow hole yesterday that kept us from seeing any snow over the next 10 days.  How about this instead from the updated run this morning?

 

In the span of 24 hours we went from zero inches to 20 plus inch totals all over the map.  This is over the next seven days.  Yesterday we couldn't even figure out the coastal storm today that now looks to give parts of our area snow.  Basically expect anywhere from 0 to 20 inches between today at 6 in the morning to next Sunday.

And you want to be a meteorologist.  

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It Snowed

Mark it down.  January 12th.  That's how long it took before we saw measurable snow.  The snow, which resembled a thunderstorm line, moved in quickly with high winds and dumped a total of 0.3 inches in Allentown.  Other places fared slightly better however when we are talking less than an inch does it really matter? 

Like most winters we continue to look at the next possibility.  And like most winters things for us change constantly. 

You can scroll down to my January 7th post where I show what the model projected 10 days out.  That date would have been January 17th.  Below is what will actually happen.  Only Downeast Maine will see substantial snowfall and even that will be minor compared to a typical coastal storm.  It's actually that low in Canada that is part of the problem.  Plus the storm is moving very quickly.  Considering the model had a storm for the area 10 days ago and sure enough there is a storm, I at least feel comfortable using the models as guidance.

LOOKING AHEAD


I'd expect to see very light snow or flurries anytime between Sunday and Tuesday especially as you go north.  The low coming up the coast on Sunday still appears to be a miss for everybody in our region so no bother posting it.  The Euro was the only one hanging on and even that one gave up.

The next image is for next weekend.  It once again shows some sort of potential.  Right now this seems completely unorganized.  With the way the pattern has been going and string of odd events (see Hurricane Alex) I would not even bother looking this far ahead.  Euro keeps this far to the south which evokes the next fear for snow lovers is the potential for a southern pattern.

If you look at total snow output over the next 10 days you would not be very excited unless you really do not like snow.  It amounts to little more than a dusting.  You can see higher numbers to the south in relation to the above storm.  If you went even further south the numbers would be in the double digits.

The Euro is even less convinced.  I wasn't going to post the 10 day snowfall off that model but it's too funny not to.  Can anybody spot the Snow Hole?

This is what I can say.  If you work a Monday-Friday job I wouldn't be very concerned about your commute this upcoming week. 

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Advisory # 2

So I did a little calculation after my evening run tonight.  Turns out I live roughly 500 yards away from the Northampton County border.  Which means that in certain situations like the one above, I technically do not live in the area under an advisory.  If you look at Lehigh County you will notice a small section juts into Northampton County.  Within that little appendage I live about as far to the bottom and the right as you can get.  The image below should help.

If I look out my window while standing in my kitchen I see Fountain Hill and the hospital located in Lehigh County.  While I sit on my couch I see Northampton County.  That's how close the line is.  Luckily for me I get to then experience all sorts of weather since it's common knowledge weather is bounded by imaginary lines.  This advisory in place is just to be cautious.  Aside from higher elevations I don't see there being much wintry weather.

I didn't expect any this morning either.  As I watched out my window I noticed a bank of fog hovering over Lehigh.  It was sort of odd.  When I got to my parking lot it was misting which caught me a bit by surprise.  I got in the car and turned the wipers on to clear the light coat of water, and I turned the windshield into a thin layer of ice.  Okay.  So off I went not thinking much of it.  The mist continued lightly.  I again hit the wipers and again instant layer of ice.  This was new.  It only lasted a few miles before I cleared the cloud.  Turns out the temperature was 31 degrees.  Having just got into my car it wasn't warm enough to melt the water.  So all my wipers were doing were spreading little drops of mist onto the rest of the windshield like cake icing and freezing it.  Can't say I recall that before.

Storm Update # 1:  Shockingly the latest model has the storm missing us and going off the coast.  There is the update.  Keep waiting and watching to see what happens.

** In other news I am officially putting the word out there that the chances of seeing accumulating snow next week are on the rise.  It's nothing even remotely significant but enough to be measurable and coat the ground with some of the white stuff.

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Still Waiting

After almost 120 inches of snow in the past two winters we approach the midpoint of January without a single tenth of an inch recorded.  I don't know what the record is for deepest date into a season before the first snowfall is measured but I feel we have to be either past it or really close.

If you go back to the summer or early fall our lack of snow and cold weather wouldn't be much of a surprise.  It had been predicted that the first part of winter or the November to December time period would be warmer than normal due to the strong El Nino.  I doubt most believed it would be as warm as it has over a large part of the country.  The real question was the second half of winter or specifically the late January to early March time period where many suggested winter would hit hard.  Since seeing staggeringly warm temperatures in December, which I will get to in a future post, Allentown has seen lows of 10 or below three times in the first six days of January.  No doubt a sign of a change in pattern.  And I always say weather is all about patterns.

Part of the reason for the change is the trough that is building in the west that lets the colder arctic air sink in.  If you can add some blocking in the north Atlantic you begin to see potential for coastal storms.  There are hints that this is starting to take shape.  The system this weekend is cutting north well to the west of our region which allows warmer air to ride out ahead of the precipitation.  This is and has almost always been since the models first picked up on the system a rain maker.  There could be a period of brief snow further to the north at the end.

I normally check the model runs out once a day.  Sometimes I spend five minutes looking them over and other times when something might be brewing I could spend an hour.  It's less about seeing what is going to happen as it is seeing trends.  That's why I didn't start this post with the following image off the latest model.  It's also why I wouldn't sound the alarms or start banging the drums.

Specifically this is the forecast run for exactly 10 days from now.  The model doesn't go out any further.  What this means is a matter of opinion.  This is my blog so I'll give mine.  I don't care much about the actual image.  It's too far out to mean anything.  The fact that this storm shows up at all makes me believe we are on the verge of an even bigger change that could lead to snowfalls or at least potential snowstorms.  The other thing that is at the least intriguing is regardless of what happens with this storm I can't ever recall seeing a model project this type of intensity of snow in our region.  That is an absolute blizzard of record book proportions.  This is the last image taken in the run so we don't even see the next window.  Put it this way, if this image was for a storm tomorrow you'd be seeing 20-30 inches.  Since it's for 10 days from now we have just as good a chance to see zero as we do 20.

At least it is something to follow. 

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After Midnight

Cue Eric Clapton...

I'm not much of a new year celebrator.  I don't find it all that different from any other day with the exception that for the next few weeks I will on occasion incorrectly write down the previous year.  I wasn't sure what I wanted to do this year.  I could make my way to the South Side and partake in one of the various musical celebrations.  That would involve driving which I really preferred to avoid.  I could stay in the Main Street area popping into different venues.  Or maybe I could do none of the above.

I always had the thought that it would be cool to go running as soon as the clock hit 12.  I never actually did it.  It hardly seemed like the greatest idea when you live in more rural areas with few sidewalks, dark streets and drivers who I rightly can assume might have been imbibing earlier and never expect to see someone jogging on the road.  The thought didn't cross my mind this year until I noticed in the paper, that day, all the events taking place in my area.  If bars and restaurants were going to stay open late then all of the town would still be quite lively even after midnight.  Might be on to something now.

I had gone to work early New Year's Eve (to get out early) and stayed out and up a bit later than normal the night before.  If the plan was to at least make it to midnight and possibly run I was at least going to see how I'd feel as the night progressed.  There would be no strolling around town.  With a few hours to go before 12 I started playing some music to get me in the mood.  It worked quite well.  There was no doubt about my plan now.

Earlier in the day with the idea of going for a run on my mind I tried to guess how many times I would have a car horn honked at me or someone yell out a window.  It happens when there isn't a holiday.  There would only be one way to find out.  I put on my reflective vest and favorite shorts, of course shorts, and headed out.

I made it all of one block before I was greeted by a parade of children and adults walking down Prospect blowing kazoo's and wearing party hats.  This was going to be fun.  It was then on to Broad.  I passed Main Street with little fanfare as most of the action remained inside.  Sometime around Center Street I startled an older gentleman who seemed a bit out of it as he walked on the sidewalk.  I had noticed him a block before I approached as he tried to get the attention of someone else across the street.  He gave a drunken apology as I passed after I believe he might have attempted a roundhouse.  Then it was over the Minsi and passed the casino which was quite busy with traffic.  I stayed down on 2nd before going up to the Hill to Hill.  From there I stayed on the bridge into Main Street which seemed pretty quiet by that time before heading up Spring.

The finally tally was unexpected.  1 car horn.  That was it.  At one point I was starting to hope for some horns.  The only police car I saw zoomed past me with no interest at all I was running at 12:30 am.  I didn't have a single drop of alcohol that night just in case I would be questioned.  Now the real kicker.  I passed six other runners.  6.  Runner runners.  Not people who left the bar in jeans and decided to run down the block.  I had even looked earlier for any groups going out but didn't find any.

Not likely to register another line like this anytime soon.

      

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