Here We Go

It appears likely that somebody is going to get quite a snowstorm Friday into Saturday.  Given that we are now three days away we can start to look into this a bit more.  My guess is that we should get a good idea of the path of the storm by tomorrow night.

Overnight the European model shifted a bit to the south.  Normally it's not a big deal but in a storm like this where two feet of snow is possible, any shift will have large implications.  Below are the snowfall totals with this run.

While the patch of grayish blue is noticeable with totals at three feet, I'm more intrigued by the cut off line.  If you like snow that's a place you do not want to be near.  Either way these are impressive totals for places from Philadelphia to D.C.  Lehigh Valley and Berks fall into the 10-14 inch range.


The Canadian model has remained consistent throwing back a lot of moisture inland.  The model suggests a similar area gets hit the hardest somewhere in the PA/MD vicinity.  The main difference is the cutoff line from the storm is well north and west compared to the European.  The snowfall totals are below.

Here we see places like Harrisburg and Baltimore in the 20+ inch range.  Our area shows totals from 10 to 18 inches.

Then there is our old friend the GFS.  I end with this one not because of its poor track record but because if you get up at 5:06 the model is in the middle of updating.  They too have shifted a bit to the south.  If you live in Baltimore you'd be pretty excited this morning.  Each model had over 20 inches of snow for that area.  Storm also seems to be moving a little faster than before.

This model has consistently shown the best totals for our area.  Here you seen numbers ranging from 17 to 20 inches.  We will see if that trend continues should I post tomorrow morning.


Before the flags start to wave and the excitement ramps up I'd like to point out the serious nature of these events regardless of what happens.  This isn't going to be one of those pretty snows you go out for a walk in.  This could very well turn into a classic blizzard for some areas.  Right now we would be one of those areas.  Aside from heavy snowfall the one clear distinction between a normal snowstorm and a blizzard are the winds.  It is going to be very windy.  Power outages and tree damage are very likely somewhere in the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic.  The bigger concern could end up becoming anything but snow related.  The onshore winds from the ocean in places like New Jersey could top out at 60 miles per hour.  There is going to be a very serious threat of coastal flooding depending on this track.