Last Morning Update

I still feel it's too early for predictions even though we are roughly 18 hours away from seeing snowfall.  However, since I've continued to post in the morning I will be taking all the various models and predictions and compiling a list of prediction totals for the large cities of the area.

At the beginning of this week you figured the watches and warnings map would be colorful.  There are winter storm warnings from Louisiana to New York.  Impressive.  I didn't look at models last night but did look at the areas in the watches and warnings.  These have extended just a bit north.  Still a fine line.  North of Lehigh and Northampton counties you get into an advisory and north of that is absolutely nothing.  Earlier in the week I mentioned the potential for blizzard conditions.  Baltimore, D.C., Philadelphia and New York are the unlucky ones this time.  Nasty conditions.

Let's get into the totals.  I'm skipping the local news total since they do ranges and NOAA because I don't think they have updated from last night.

European:  For the first time this week we see a northern trend.  The line between heavy snow and light snow is basically central Monroe county.  This is roughly 30-40 miles north of Allentown.  That is a tight line.

Allentown:  11 inches
Reading:  13 inches
Philadelphia:  16 inches

Canadian:  You know, I kind of thought this morning might finally give a good indication of what is going to happen and then I start looking at these morning runs.  This model has again shifted south.  Northampton County barely holds onto the heavy snow.  North of that you talk about a couple inches.

Allentown:  9 inches
Reading:  12 inches
Philadelphia:  19 inches

GFS:  A very slight trend north compared to previous runs.  Again Monroe is the dividing line.  They would see two inches according to this run.  Maybe what is more impressive is the incredibly heavy snow they show for DC and Baltimore.  You are talking 30 inches or more.

Allentown:  11 inches
Reading:  14 inches
Philadelphia:  13 inches  

NAM:  It's my first time posting this one because it's the first time the model has been able to pick up the snowfall for our area since I post early in the morning.  This is the short term model that only goes out 2 1/2 days.  Very similar to the others with the exact same dividing line.

Allentown:  10 inches
Reading:  11 inches
Philadelphia:  17 inches

Regardless of what happens this is going to be fascinating to watch unfold.  Many areas are in the zone to get slammed.  That won't change.  If you sit in Berks County or the Lehigh Valley you will be on the edge of your seat especially the further north you go.  All this time spent trying to figure out what the storm will do and you won't know until it is on our doorstep.  It just so happens we are the ones right on the border this time.  If this was Baltimore or even Philadelphia I'd be confident in giving numbers.

Let me talk to the Lehigh Valley first (especially the people in the northern areas) while everyone else can step away for a minute.  These are the people on the fringe.  It's a very odd place to be.  No doubt there could be a few inches, a foot or nothing.  My concern is there is a lot more working against us than with us.  One is dry air that could really cut into the storm.  Where the radar shows it snowing but it's not actually doing anything.  You need the atmosphere to moisten up which comes with prolonged snowfall or heavy snowfall.  The second problem is the track.  It struggles to push further north thanks to a blocking high.  That has been constant in most recent runs.  It also forces the storm east which helps portions of New Jersey and New York pick up heavy snow but again cuts off those high totals.  The one benefit to this storm is how slow it moves once it arrives.  This is what will help create huge totals for places to our south and southwest.

The confidence in larger snowfall totals in Berks, for now, is on the rise.  The heavy snowfall makes it that far north before quickly cutting off.  Philadelphia is primed for a good one.  That shouldn't change.

I might have to adjust totals tonight before this starts since we are over 12 hours away and there are more model runs to come out.

Allentown:  6.4 inches
Reading:  10.7 inches
Philadelphia:  17.1 inches

I'm in the camp where every 25 miles north between Philadelphia and the Poconos has the potential for massive differences.

By the way, not sure I've mentioned the Weather Channel at all yet this week which will surely have people all over the region.  Here our their latest projections.

Philadelphia:  18-24 inches
Reading (Areas north of the Turnpike and south of I-78):  12-18 inches
Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton (Areas just north of I-78):  8-12 inches