Morning Update Part 3

This is the first update I am doing where I did not take a look at any of the afternoon or evening models yesterday.  In these situations sometimes you need to step back.  It's the same reason I believe posting snow totals now isn't worth it.  By Friday morning a complete shift could occur and you end up being off by 10 inches.  Let the storm take shape.

The Euro has been the one model that keeps forecasters from feeling confident about totals.  It's not hard to see why.  The southern shift has happened again and quite frankly I'm not that surprised.  Yesterday I started to favor the more southern route for this storm which could keep us on the outside looking in.  Before I dive into that let me at least look at the other models to see if they are trending in that direction as well.

New Euro totals from last nights run below.  Bordering now on 3-6 inches.

Recall that the Canadian model has been pretty robust over the last two days.  It did trend a bit south yesterday morning but kept us with a sizable amount.  Part of the fun in this is not actually looking at the model until I write the paragraph.  It has shifted south again.  This is actually a bit concerning.  The totals remain high for the area, but the moisture struggles to reach us.  Lancaster comes in at 28 inches, the highest so far of the three runs I've posted.  But look at Monroe county just north of Northampton.

They show 4 inches while Allentown is at 18.  On Tuesday Monroe was at 14, yesterday 9, then today 4.  What happens tomorrow?  Another shift south and Allentown is next in line to see a drastic reduction in totals.

Off to the GFS which hopefully has updated to at least Sunday.  This is the consistent model that has shown a foot of snow for the area.  If this has progressed south the trend is quite clear.  Wow.  A bit stunned.  Doesn't get much clearer than that.  Further south again.  We are now barely holding onto any snow.

These trends are why you wait to make predictions when you are on the cusp of the storm.  So here's what's going to happen today.  All the forecasters who are currently still sleeping will wake up and see the trend which will likely lead to some serious discussion.  Snowfall maps will be changed.

For instance.  Here is NOAA.  According to the latest models, which is what most people base predictions off of, this would need some serious altering.

This is why I choose not to post my own opinions about totals until more information comes in.  By tonight and especially by tomorrow morning we will have a much better understanding of what we are dealing with.  Or in this case, possibly not dealing with.