Still Waiting

After almost 120 inches of snow in the past two winters we approach the midpoint of January without a single tenth of an inch recorded.  I don't know what the record is for deepest date into a season before the first snowfall is measured but I feel we have to be either past it or really close.

If you go back to the summer or early fall our lack of snow and cold weather wouldn't be much of a surprise.  It had been predicted that the first part of winter or the November to December time period would be warmer than normal due to the strong El Nino.  I doubt most believed it would be as warm as it has over a large part of the country.  The real question was the second half of winter or specifically the late January to early March time period where many suggested winter would hit hard.  Since seeing staggeringly warm temperatures in December, which I will get to in a future post, Allentown has seen lows of 10 or below three times in the first six days of January.  No doubt a sign of a change in pattern.  And I always say weather is all about patterns.

Part of the reason for the change is the trough that is building in the west that lets the colder arctic air sink in.  If you can add some blocking in the north Atlantic you begin to see potential for coastal storms.  There are hints that this is starting to take shape.  The system this weekend is cutting north well to the west of our region which allows warmer air to ride out ahead of the precipitation.  This is and has almost always been since the models first picked up on the system a rain maker.  There could be a period of brief snow further to the north at the end.

I normally check the model runs out once a day.  Sometimes I spend five minutes looking them over and other times when something might be brewing I could spend an hour.  It's less about seeing what is going to happen as it is seeing trends.  That's why I didn't start this post with the following image off the latest model.  It's also why I wouldn't sound the alarms or start banging the drums.

Specifically this is the forecast run for exactly 10 days from now.  The model doesn't go out any further.  What this means is a matter of opinion.  This is my blog so I'll give mine.  I don't care much about the actual image.  It's too far out to mean anything.  The fact that this storm shows up at all makes me believe we are on the verge of an even bigger change that could lead to snowfalls or at least potential snowstorms.  The other thing that is at the least intriguing is regardless of what happens with this storm I can't ever recall seeing a model project this type of intensity of snow in our region.  That is an absolute blizzard of record book proportions.  This is the last image taken in the run so we don't even see the next window.  Put it this way, if this image was for a storm tomorrow you'd be seeing 20-30 inches.  Since it's for 10 days from now we have just as good a chance to see zero as we do 20.

At least it is something to follow.