Energy Transfer

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Normally I wouldn’t be on here talking about a storm I wrote about less than twelve hours ago, but we live along the northeast coast where dynamics of a storm are constantly changing.  It is clear to see what is happening.  If the Delhigh Valley wants to see a good accumulating snow, we need the coastal storm to take over quickly.  Yes, I said Delhigh.

A low last night was coming across Ohio towards Pennsylvania but weakening as it approached the mountains.  That energy from that low would be transferred to the coastal system that would intensify somewhere along the coast and move north.  Try counting all the different factors with this scenario.  I’ll name a few.  When does the transfer take place?  When does the initial low lose energy?  Where does the coastal low form?  What direction does it take?  Throw in temperature gradient and it’s another classic example of a mad guessing game.

This leads me to the following.  If I am wagering a guess I would knock our snow totals down quite a bit.  Enough to where places in and around Philadelphia won’t even see an inch.  I would also say the same for western areas of Chester and Berks.  The reasoning is simple.  The energy transfer is taking place right on top of us.  The initial system barely made it to us.  The secondary low is going to form too far north and east for our area to see much from that either.  The system basically jumped over our region.  What can you do?

The map is the latest run for total precipitation and clearly shows what I was talking about.  The lightest shade of blue is representative of anywhere from a tenth to a quarter inch of liquid.  Equations would say it would equal about 1 to 2 inches of snow.  But on either side of what I circled, the darker blues become larger and darker.  We are stuck in the convergence zone.  

  

The next run is updating right now.  I will post if there are any changes.  I don’t expect there to be.  Looks like a miss for all of us.  By the way I am keeping with my original totals.  That's what I said and that's what I stick with. 

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Light Event

First let's begin with the Wednesday event.  Looking back on it I think as poorly as the forecast might have perceived to be, I thought what happened was about right.  The only thing I had thought was we might end up with more snow than we did.  The trouble was, and I mentioned it in my post, we were directly in the battle zone, and you can't predict where that line will be.  The only thing you could do was sit back and watch.  And watch I did.

It started snowing around midday.  It became moderate but the winds made it appear as though it wasn't landing.  For once, nobody at work seemed to take any notice to the conditions as everybody kept going about their day.  By a little after three you could see the snow mixing with rain and sleet as I watched the wind billow the snow from the warehouse roof next door.  The mixing was the one thing I did not want as it was the only thing that could lead to bad roads.  I also knew the longer I stayed at work the better chance for all the moisture to turn into plain rain as temps rose slowly.  

When I came out to my car, it looked something like this.  It was basically a frozen box.  

I updated the totals on the right for the three PA locations to incorporate all the events we have had this year.  If you haven't been counting, we have had three accumulating snowfalls so far this "winter." Sorry Philadelphia, you have not been invited to the party.  The 4th snowfall of the season will change that tomorrow.

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It has been on the maps since practically last weekend.  In fact it also has never wavered much in that it said it would be a snowstorm for us everyday.  The only key would be the track.  Obviously we see now that we will indeed get a generous amount tomorrow.

This is one of those perfect systems for me.  It is a daytime event that I can enjoy in whatever capacity I feel.  Maybe go out for a jog or watch from the deck.  It will be light enough that it doesn't become a travel nightmare but enough that it sticks around on the ground for awhile.  Unless you work or have some place to go it's a sit-in-the-house kind of day.

What are we looking at?  I'm surprised by all the random numbers.  This is a pretty easy one to take a stab at for snow totals.  Every place I've seen is between 1 and 5 inches with some places maybe pushing out a bit more.  Every run including tonight increases the precipitation just a tad which is a good thing if you are looking for a little more.  Everybody has an advisory which is good to see.  In fact the entire state has an advisory except for the two counties in northwest PA by the lake.  When I say good to see the advisory I mean it's nice to see they haven't gone all crazy and thrown out watches and warnings (see Cincinnati).

If I was to throw out a guess, and I will, I say Reading and Allentown come in around 3.2 and 3.7 respectively.  For the record that is on the low side according to the advisory posted.  

Enjoy the fresh powder tomorrow.  Photos to follow as I will try to get pictures of all the events this winter.


WRITER'S NOTE:

Maybe it is me, but when looking at the snow totals for our area I keep thinking how small they are.  The truth of the matter is that with the snow that falls tomorrow Allentown and Reading will both be ahead of the average snowfall year to date.  I know seven or eight inches doesn't sound like much especially when that could come from one storm, but there are still three months of winter to go.  The next 10 days will all be cold until the model shows a warmup around January 10th.  All we need are some systems to move through.  It's not looking promising, but anything is something I will take.  There could even be a little light snow or flurries for New Year's Eve and day.   

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Tough Call

I was able to look at the latest short term model run and not much has changed.  If anything the run was slightly cooler than the previous runs.  Temperatures won't get out of the mid 30's and if the precipitation arrives on schedule it will start as frozen.  After that, who knows.

Even the weather service seems stumped.

I would bet a decent amount of money that our particular region whether it be the Lehigh or Delaware Valley is virtually always between the frozen or liquid side of the storm.  Look at this map.  Seriously look.  Every county outside of the Lehigh Valley and Berks has a winter watch including watches and warnings.  All the counties towards Philadelphia have a flood watch.  The middle is no man's land.  Rain, snow, ice, sleet, snow to ice, ice to rain, snow to rain, all rain?

I can't tell you either.  This is one where you have to literally sit there and watch.  However, within 16-22 hours of a storm there is no reason that Berks, Lehigh and Northampton should not at the very least have winter advisories.  I almost think the weather service is so confused they don't know what to do with this area.

Remember cold air sinks and warm air rises.  It is very possible that temperatures at the surface in certain valley locations will be cold enough to freeze precipitation.  This isn't really something than can be predicted.  The short term snow output suggests all places north of Reading receive snow and some places in Lehigh County push the five to six inch range.  Normally I don't put a lot into this but at some point you continue to use models that are reliable and that one pretty much nailed the last little snow.   

Part of my problem too is that I personally don't feel watches and warnings should be confined to an exact space.  Take Berks for example.  I have a hard time buying the fact that Schuylkill County to the north has a Winter Storm Warning, the highest tiered advisory, while a place a mile across the border has nothing.  Berks is a large county.  There could be a variety of weather from north to south and east to west.

Check this one out.  The great town of Hamburg in northern Berks has no watch, warning or advisory.  Port Clinton sits 3.5 miles to the north on the same route but is in Schuylkill County where the entire county is under a warning.  Here is the difference.

• Hamburg (From the weather service):  Hazardous weather is not expected at this time

• Port Clinton (From the weather service):  Hazardous travel due to ice and snow.  4 to 8 inches.

Really?  Three miles is all it takes?  It is when you only give warnings to an entire county instead of certain areas.  I could easily wake up tomorrow and see Berks in a winter storm warning.  I would be a little surprised unless they monitor the storm and something changes.  I could wake up and see the county has nothing.  In all honesty, and I will update this if I must, I'm very surprised there are no watches up for Berks and Lehigh already.  

Extending from the area I am looking at, please keep in mind this is technically a nor'easter in development.  The heaviest rain will be along the Jersey coast, and there will also be a very strong onshore wind.  That of course pushes water into areas that don't need to see any more water.  And by the maps it looks like the worst of it will be in the same areas that were hit hard by the Sandy storm.

UPDATE:  9:35


Somebody must have read my post as now the three counties in the middle ground have advisories until Thursday morning for a mixed bag of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain

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Christmas Eve

The brief snow is over.  I was slightly surprised as it was steady enough to stick quickly including on all secondary and main roads.  In the end it unofficially was record by me at about two inches.  Which means for here and many other places it will indeed be a White Christmas.

And some pictures:

All the pictures are somewhat interesting.  The first one taken at the top from my deck also happened to catch my breath which captured the artistic white streak on the top left.  The second one is looking out front with the snow falling, and the third catches the end of the snowfall while looking at the tree coated in the back.

The storm all featured a classic and key component to winter storms.  When it started to snow it was about 36 or 37.  Within an hour in was hovering around 33.  Once that snow starts to moisten the atmosphere the temps can really dip quickly.

Some final notes.  I took a look at the latest run for Wednesday and it pushed the warm air further west which would give us a better chance to see some rain.  If I am home in time tomorrow I can possibly get a post up to include the last model run I will see before the storm comes.

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Christmas Update

Everything looks like it will come together to give us at least a little taste of Christmas.  Models do not indicate any substantial precipitation after looking at the last model run before the snow starts to fall.  I hesitate to say it will be a "white Christmas."  By the exact definition we would need to have one inch of snow on the ground tomorrow.  Some places will have it and others will not.  For areas further north and east it is more likely that snow will stick since it will arrive at a later hour with temperatures cooler and the sun having set.  Either way, a little dusting or inch of snow for Christmas morning that should not affect commuting is something everybody can enjoy.

ABOVE - Models continue to add more elements that help people like me see what could be coming down the road.  This models shows projected snow totals up through Christmas morning.  The light green in Philadelphia means basically nothing.  The darker shade up through Bucks, Chester and Montgomery would be in the once inch range and the dark green is right around two inches north of Reading and throughout the Lehigh Valley.  If we ballpark the totals I would agree this is close.


SYSTEM 2:

The light snow tonight is nothing compared to what could be coming in late Wednesday and into Thursday.  I've tried not jumping on any models because they constantly change but we are within a 48-60 hour period when things start to come together.

Two lows have the chance to form, one in the midwest that would give places from Kansas to Michigan snow and another that would form closer to our area that would project to give central PA and NY large snow totals.  However like the past the system continues to waiver and the last run project our temps to be colder than previous runs.  It doesn't put us in line for a major snowstorm but it would suggest a mixed assortment of crap that would not be fun to deal with.  I will keep tracking this one closely as it has a potential to be nasty.

Below is the same short term model for snow amounts with both this system and the snow tonight factored in.

Can't get a much more defined cut off then that.  Virtually nothing south and east of Berks while northern parts of the county would be in the 8-10 range.  Keep in mind this is the total for both events through Thursday night.  Those orange/red and bright yellows would be between 13-17 inches.  Don't laugh either.  The way the tracks have been coming together it is looking more likely that many in our area will experience poor conditions.

More to come tomorrow.  

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Nasty Night

If you are a sound sleeper you might not make it through the night without waking up once or twice.  Lots of things to keep track of.  Let's go straight to the maps.

Tonight:

As expected the storm that dumped a good amount of snow on the Midwest is setting its target on the east coast with heavy rain and strong winds.  Behind it we get the rush of cold air from Canada and with that comes those prevalent northwest winds across the lake to give some heavy lake effect totals.

Line of winds moving through late tonight before the rain.  Yellow is around 35 mph while orange is closer to 45.

Heavy rains and possible thunder come through very early in the morning

There had been constant talk since the storm took shape earlier this week about some wrap around snow from cold air coming in from behind.  I don't see that happening at all.  Stray snow showers could be around anywhere between Friday night and Saturday morning while a blustery wind continues from the west.

Snow Zones:

All of western PA will see snow pile up from moisture behind the storm and lake effect.  The snow zones should also start to make out well after seeing very little so far this season in certain places.  While this large storm was affecting multiple big cities across the country nobody seemed to notice or really care about a heck of a little ocean storm in Maine.  Caribou, one of our watch spots picked up a solid 11.8 inches with other totals above 20.  Not bad, but not a big story.

Looking Ahead:

This is why you don't jump too far ahead.  In my last post I had said no white Christmas.  That's how it looked then, however chances are better now.  My next sentence was, it's safe to say we don't see any measurable snow at all in December.  I deleted it soon after I wrote it because there are too many factors.

All of the sudden a little low pressure system goes scooting through the Tennessee Valley and northward just enough to at least keep things interesting on Christmas.

Christmas morning light snow?  Possibility is there.  32 degree line clearly marked to the south through central NJ.

After Christmas:

Remember on Monday I said about a massive storm that was predicted to cut up towards Chicago?  Want to take a guess at what happened to that today?  It now follows a southern track and then makes the turn to go up the coast.  After that I'm not even going to guess.  Either way keep an eye out for somewhere between the 28th and 30th.

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No White Christmas

A week ago I made a post about a potential storm system to move through this week.  It wasn't looking very promising at the time and now it can be said that it doesn't look promising at all if you are looking for snow.

The storm comes charging in Thursday night into Friday.  However the track took this one far enough inland that there isn't even a debate on what we are going to see.  This one is going to be a rain event.  Like many before it and I'm sure a few after, there is also a chance of wrap around snow on the back end of the storm as well as a new wave of cold air to follow.

Diagram of storm with some added features below:

It is safe to say that we won't see a white Christmas this year.  We might not see measurable snow at all.  It's a bit disappointing but it was somewhat called for since most of the transitioning is to take place from January on.  We at least will see a cold Christmas with temps after this storm to drop into the 30's until the next chance for a storm after Christmas where we could end up on the warm side again.

We have to wait patiently though it can be difficult when you look at the national maps.  20 states have some sort of winter watches including cities like Portland, Salt Lake City, Denver and Des Moines as  multiple storms take shape in every area of the country.

And we get fog for at least one more day.  Monitoring the massive storm that is taking shape for after Christmas that the Weather Channel can give a stupid name.  Right now it cuts up towards Chicago.

If it makes you feel any better we have seen more snow than Rochester.  Lake effect snow season has been absolutely non-existent.  

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Watching One

December looks to be progressing like many predicted.  The first half of the month favored warmer than normal conditions before things transitioned back to average.  By the looks of things that is precisely what is going to happen.

If you are looking for another shot of warmer air I would stop.  The rest of the month is favoring average to below average temperatures with the exception of a day or two.  In simpler terms I would not anticipate hitting the 50's like we did today anytime real soon.

With a change of colder air filling in we also have to discuss the future possibility of storms that could produce wintry weather instead of the drizzle and fog we have been seeing.  The good news if you like snow is the NAO is strongly negative between the 18 and 26th.  I should say at least the 26th since that is as far as I am able to see.  Like before, this is the period to watch to see when storms form and cold air can rush in since they will have a better chance of running up the coast.

That is just what indeed could happen around the 19th.  Too far ahead?  Of course.  However, it is the only real system I have to look forward to over the next ten days so I at least have something to watch and track.

Now for the model runs which I only stick to the long range until we get within a week.

Take the image for what you will but we can offer a quick explanation.  This would be a nor'easter coming up the coast and intensifying (a bit too far for us) off the coast.  Dynamics are interesting since most us this would be rain.  These things can be hard to read but what you can do in winter is think of that dark blue line that cuts through Indiana and makes a return up through PA as an unscientific divider between below and above freezing temperatures.  New Jersey, New York City and Boston would be on the warmer side of this one.  This will show better in the next map. 

Now this is taken from a different map of strictly temperatures for right around the same period.  Remember blue is where you start to see low 30's.  Draw an imaginary line encompassing the blue and compare it to the thick blue line in the image above.  Pretty much spot on.

Either way it would still be a heck of a storm like all of these tend to be.  All we can do now is track the progress and check the models.

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Kickcast

Not a normal segment here but with the winds of winter approaching it makes Sunday football games at least somewhat more interesting.  This weekend has a little bit of everything. 

We begin with the great weather games, cities only, no matchups and positively nothing to do with indoor games.

-- Not going to see anything better than Tampa.  A projected high of 80 degrees, sunny skies and no wind, this game will have no interference from weather.

-- Jacksonville joins Tampa though there is a slight chance of showers.  When the temp is around 75, showers aren't a bad thing.

-- Carolina is in the same boat.  Chance of showers but temps near 70.

-- San Francisco rounds out the group.  A couple of days ago this would have been one of the worst places to play.  Sunday brings nothing but sun and comfortable temperatures.


If you are looking to see games played in less favorable conditions then you are in luck as those four places appear to be the only ones without any issues.

For the rest from early to late:

Cincy:  50's, scatted heavy showers and high humidity

Buffalo:  Cloudy, upper 30's with a nice breezy keeping it comfortably in the 20's

Pittsburgh:  Showers developing, upper 40's.

Cleveland:  Slight chance or showers, mid 40's.  Better than Pittsburgh.

D.C.:  50, showers in the area

Seattle:  Showers, low 40's.  Not ideal but exactly Seattle.

New York area:  Scattered showers, mid to low 40's


Now if you have errands to run or things to do tomorrow, relax and grab a beer for the Sunday night game.  What is better than seeing a divisional game at Lambeau?  How about seeing that game during a snowstorm?  Enjoy.  It won't be anything major and it might be slowly ending during the course of the game, but nonetheless there should be snow on the ground during at least the first half.

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A Look Ahead

The last time I posted about a week ago I said enjoy the warm weather while it lasted.  It is officially on its way out as we head into the weekend.  Now let's look at what else I said last week.

Weekend of the 8th shows system with rain and snow on backside:

Now:  A group of random lows hang around most of the weekend.  It wouldn't be a wash out but it would be unsteady enough to see sporadic showers at any time.

Also shows something on the 12th:

Now:  This could be classified as what was actually showing up for the weekend.  A strong cold front would push through late Monday into early Tuesday with rain and some snow for areas to the west.  

... And the 14th... low out to sea:

Now:  It is still there except it might be leaning towards the 15th and it looks as if there could be two lows that form with one to our north and west and the other off the Carolinas.



What should we expect?  I'm not concerned or worried or in my case excited about the next two systems.  My reasoning is pretty simple. 

Monday System

14th

19th

 

 

 

I switched over to the temperature map here that will also help explain.  First, a little more info.  The NAO is far less negative than it had previously been.  It is averaging just about neutral.  That could limit coastal storms however we are still seeing a return to an active pattern.

Now for the items above.  The chart is in Celsius with each different color representing a difference of two degrees Celsius.  Putting it simple, any type of blue is below 32.  Green to yellow starts moving above freezing and so on.  Probably can be figured out just by looking but don't jump to big conclusions.  It's not like a normal weather map where every shading is a difference of ten degrees.

First thing to look at is the L on the map.  It normally moves in a northeast direction on a diagonal line.  For snow you want to be on the west side of the system since the east side normally brings warm air up with the storm from the south.  The other side pulls down cold air from the north.  These are three different storms from the longer range runs.  Each time the low is around our area of latitude it is well west of us and in one case near Detroit.  That is the wrong side for snow.  Not to mention we are not even near the snow/rain line.  That yellow color is mid 40's.

What this will do though is continually usher in colder air behind each of these storms with very short shots of a little moderation.  It in the least keeps things interesting and could signal a busier pattern leading up to the new year.


MESSAGE FROM OUR WEATHER SERVICE

I came across this message from the National Weather Service that covers our region that I had to share.  This is straight from something they posted and was not changed.

There you have it.  Straight from the forecasters.  This winter looks to have either average, below average or above average temperatures and anywhere from above average to below average precipitation. 

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Vacationing Cold

Say farewell to the colder than normal temperatures.  At least for a little while.  The cold air takes a retreat north until at least next Tuesday.  The next shot of really cold air shows up the weekend of the 8th and is followed by the coldest temps of the season the following weekend.  Obviously that is quite far from now but just telling you what the models show.  Looking ahead that far can also pinpoint dates to maybe watch for if the ingredients come together.

NAO is still strongly negative around the 9th, the same period where it shows a shot of cold air coming down from the north.  The next seven days show very little precip in the area other than what looks like a cold front Wednesday night.  However, the weekend of the 8th does show a system moving through that would look to have rain with snow on the backside.  There is also something on the 12th and the 14th, the latter showing a formation of a low out to sea the same time temps really drop.

What does this mean?  Nothing.  In the short term enjoy the warmup.  In the back of your mind keep those other dates in mind down the road.

SNOW


I was going to find a map of the Delaware/Lehigh Valley and do a fancy snow total map for all the places that reported totals from this last storm.  Instead I noticed the weather service, who gets paid to do this, did a map of there own that I will share and give my two cents.

I draw one conclusion from looking at this map.  I believe there is no actual method to accurately measure snow in an event like this.  I'm not going to disagree with anything but if you look at specifically Montgomery Country they have two locations reporting less than an inch surrounded by four places that reported more than three inches.  In Berks, Kutztown reported 3.2 inches while an unknown location very close by was under an inch.  The "official" totals are to the right.


RUN UPDATE

Coincidentally this year my birthday happened to fall on the same day as the Lights in the Parkway middle of the week run.  What better way to celebrate than a run where your from.

For my liking this was just about perfect.  I forgot to check the temperature at the start, but I'd guess around 34 with a light breeze.  The night before I loaded an app for running onto my phone for the first time to see what it would calculate.  I never take my phone running but felt this was a simple enough run that I could hold it without having any problems.  I must admit I hardly noticed the lights and decorations.  It was dark enough with some patches of ice that I focused either on the path or out ahead trying to catch people who started in front of me.  Regardless, it was a nice little experience and another local run to cross off the list.

Here is what my phone recorded.  Will go off the page a little. 

Official time was 22:32 so pretty accurate in that respect.  Green marker was the start and red marker the finish. 

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Wintry Dynamic

Glad I got in a late post last night to up the totals a bit.  Looks like preliminary reports show ranges in the Delaware and Lehigh Valley's up towards five inches in spots.  We will have to wait for final totals until at least tomorrow.  Like always Reading is on top of things currently reporting zero.

I want to get a little bit into the dynamic and talk about what the Weather Channel also got into this morning.  I woke up a little before six and saw no snow on the ground.  I was a little perplexed.  However once I actually opened the front door I did notice it snowing very wet flakes, possibly even mixing in with rain.  I opened the radar up right away.  The rain snow line was just north of the area.  Then came the wonders of weather.  As the minutes kept progressing the line of snow moved slightly further south.  Before long it was a nice light snow.  The trend continued all around the area.  Except normally you would get the opposite affect as daylight approaches.  The snow falling into the atmosphere continued to cool the surface temperatures so that eventually the temps continued to fall to where snow could be supported.  Once the change occurred it was all snow.  The snow lasted until about 3:00 continually falling lightly to moderately. 

In the areas I was in with the temps just above 32, the snow tended to accumulate while melting at the same time.  Similarly, once it stopped snowing temps increased three to four degrees to the point where you could here it melting already.

Either way I will take a quick shot of winter a bit early.  The way the trends are going, we won't be seeing a return to cold or snow for awhile.  Got a couple pics after all of one hour of light snow before I was off to work.

RUN UPDATE

I don't normally get into updating any outdoor events I might be attending for reasons unknown to me since weather often plays a major influence with conditions.  However, it is getting to that time of season where things can get very interesting depending on the forecast. 

This past Sunday offered a fairly challenging 15k trail course through French Creek State park.  Now to the weather.  It was actually nice depending on what you consider nice is.  Never saw the sun and there was a solid breeze very noticeable when crossing the dam.  I'd guess basing off the high of the day at 39 that it was probably around 36 or 37 during the run that started at 10 a.m.  The dryness of November kept the course clean and if trees were lost after Sandy, I didn't really notice.

Kept the run relaxing starting towards the back of the group and keeping a steady pace.  Lot of single file running for the first few miles didn't help, but I was not in a big rush.  Finished with a solid 1:31:15.

Thanks for the pictures.

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Final Storm Comment

After taking a look at some of the information coming in tonight it would appear that there could be more energy than originally anticipated for this system.  While it won't be anything to go crazy about it has the potential to cause more problems than originally thought.  Temperatures in the morning should be cold enough to cause snow to stick to roads quickly, and it appears that snow could be falling at heavy rates between 8 and 1 p.m. throughout the area.

I would suggest that much of the northern sections of the area receive closer to 3-6 inches as opposed to 1-2 inches.  If that doesn't do it for you maybe this will.  For the first time that I can remember, according to the Weather Channel, veteran meteorologist Mike Seidel will be covering the storm in the great city of Reading tomorrow morning.  Perhaps an indication that we might be getting a bit more than an inch or two.

Either way it will be something to continue to watch including staying safe for the morning commute.  And remember, turn on the Weather Channel tomorrow morning to get live updates from Reading.  Or just look out the window, maybe the media vans will be outside your door.

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Winter Ready

No better time to make a winter prediction post then directly before the first snow event of the new season.  That's more then can be said for last year when no predictions were out ahead of the October snowstorm.  The advisories are starting to pop up for the small event tomorrow morning that will leave most places with a nice little coating to prepare people for the Christmas season.

Now to the predictions.  I'm going to keep it pretty simple this time and give totals from the media outlets and if more come in that  I find, I will post them to the side.  All are for Philadelphia.

CBS - (Kathy Orr):  Kathy is pegging February as the wintry month with cold temperatures and higher snowfall including two potential nor'easters.  CBS takes the over with 22-28 inches.

ABC - (Cecily Tynan):  Agreeing with many others on the factors Cecily focuses in on the coastal storm and also shots of cold air from Canada.  She goes above average because of this and lands at 24-32 inches.

FOX - (Scott Williams):  Scott is the new guy on the block stepping in for JB.  Maybe he knows something the rest don't as he has gone with the lowest overall totals at 18-24 inches.

NBC - (Hurricane Schwartz):  Glenn looks at the recent coastal storms in October and ones in recent years as well as the correlation with the snow cover in Siberia and Canada to suggest a snowy winter.  He goes the highest at 30-35 inches.

Philly Weather - (Blog):  This very well done site says what many should when saying that all the current factors make this winter a tough one to predict.  With that in mind and other small details they stay at average with a prediction of 20-25 inches.

Metro - (John Bolaris):  After being dismissed by Fox for some personal problems John Bolaris is back, kinda.  Bolaris has found a spot writing for the Metro and while normally I wouldn't dig too deep into daily publications Bolaris has a strong background in forecasting.  Bolaris stays modest though does think coastal storms could be a large factor as he goes with a total of 20-25 inches.

Lehigh Valley Weather - (Me):  I'm not predicting for Philadelphia so I'm not really in the running like the ones above.  However, based on the circumstances this winter could be a back and forth battle of times of warmer and cooler temperatures.  I am going to put more stock into coastal storms (something that will also be added to the side) and go with a general above average total of 37-45 inches for both Reading and Allentown.

OTHERS NOTES
For the past two seasons I have picked locations to follow to see how much snow they would end up receiving.  Both times the two locations received well below normal snowfalls for that season.  I will follow both locations this year again to see how well they do.  Those will be to the right.  However, I will need a third location to keep the annual event going.  This year we add Caribou, Maine to the list.  All three of these locations could conceivably go above 150 inches.  They will stay on the right side in order of annual average snowfall.

Something else added to the list once the first snowfall starts will be something for my own curiosity.  I often think that if it were not for coastal storms are winters could be pretty boring.  Really boring.  So let's see how much snow we get and average it out with the final total for the season that comes from non-coastal storms.  I'm going to go with somewhere around 85 - 90 percent of our snow is related to coastal storms.


One other small note.  This season I will focus on the area specifically around the Delaware Valley not including parts of Delaware or New Jersey.  Basically I am looking at the eight counties from Berks, Lehigh and Northampton on south to Philadelphia has the area to watch. 

UPDATE:

Since I started this the winter weather advisories have moved east and now include all eight counties I was just talking about except Philadelphia and Delaware.  I'd say a general two inch total across most of the area will be common.

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Snow Run Combo

There is a chance I might be able to predict future snow events based off when my next run will be.  Saturday saw a steady stream of lake enhanced snow activity between bouts of light snow and heavy flurries that lasted for a good portion of the day in State College (best video I could get below).  Looking at past radar indicated that snow also was flying locally here as well.   And this morning I was off to tackle the hills of French Creek for a 15k trail run.




Normally this would be nothing out of the ordinary except the next chance, or in this case, the next snowfall looks to be coming early Tuesday morning.  Again, it is late November and snow is not out of the norm.  Except once again, I have a run the next day.  Is there a chance that if I  take all the running dates from now until March and use the date before, that will be the day of a snowfall?  It is completely meaningless but let's see how it goes.

SNOWY TUESDAY
Now onto the snow.  It would appear we will be getting our first measurable snow of the season on Tuesday.  The storm played a lot of tricks within the models and I'm sure there could be another trick to come in the next 36 hours.  However, the storm doesn't bomb out over the ocean and kick back moisture so instead a smaller area will all see a general 2 inch amount.  I would expect a bunch of winter weather advisories to go up tomorrow.

CHILLY NOVEMBER
As we slowly pull away from November one trend that began and ended the month is the below normal temperatures.  I know it might seem odd but the average high for a day like today is 49.  The highest we got was 39.  And every day for the rest of the month is predicted to be below normal for high and low temperatures.

LOOKING AHEAD
NAO stays negative straight through the first week of November.  Things look pretty quiet after this small snow event Tuesday.  Things start getting more active closer towards the 8th-10th of December.  Clearly that is too far away to care about right now.

We are a bit behind on our snowcast like we did last year as every Philadelphia station has put in their totals for the year.  I will get all of these up as well as those of other sources shortly including my guess for this area.  I will also add a couple other little games off to the side to play while we watch this winter unfold.  Again, those will be explained in an upcoming post probably tomorrow.

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Quick Change

Like what commonly occurs, it takes one big storm to change the pattern and ever since Sandy the pattern thankfully has been relatively quiet and average.  In fact if you haven't noticed November has been dry.  Reading has picked up less than 3/4 of an inch of rain compared to over eight inches in October. 

That quiet pattern might be set for a change.  Take a look at the NAO forecast.

Notice the very short red bars of positive NAO turn into longer bars of a solid negative NAO.  And once again this would mean a dip in the jet stream to favor shots of cold air with the chance of storms coming up the coast.  Put it this way, it's the difference between a flat jet stream and one shaped more like an elongated U. 

SHORT TERM:

A cold front will sweep into the area Saturday morning.  Cold would be relatively speaking.  Temps should be about ten degrees below normal but both days this weekend look to include at the very least a breeze.  The front won't have much moisture to work with so a passing flurry in the higher terrain is about as much as we can squeeze out of this one.

There is a storm brewing for the middle of next week.  It would appear to be a rainmaker at this point in time however we have a week to go yet.  I'm not even going to bother putting any images up as they will be all over the place.  Just keep in mind something might be in the works.

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Storm Totals

Not going to have a lot of time to get in a lengthy post about the storm.  Clearly the forecasts were off as they typical are when you have no idea where a storm is going to move and at what point it will strengthen.  Instead of it hugging the coast it went a bit further out to sea.  Either way, I was skeptical about the area receiving any snow and my skepticism turned out to be correct.

Other places got a heck of a lot more than they were preparing for.  If the Weather Channel can create stupid names for winter storms based on no merit then so can I.  Here are the highest amounts being reported from winter storm Aretha.

Fairfield, CT - 13.5
Clintonville, CT - 13.5
Freehold, NJ - 13
Jackson Twp, NJ - 12
Manchester Twp, NJ - 12
Hamden, CT - 12
North Haven, CT - 12

Others of note:

Newark - 6.2
Central Park - 4.7
Atlantic City - 2.5
Allentown - 0
Reading - 0
Philadelphia - 0


I mentioned the storm would signal a change in the pattern.  It is almost already noticeable.  Storms will have cold air to work with as they come parading in from the Pacific.  Yesterday the only winter storm was the one going up the coast along the east.  As of right now 13 states have some sort of winter advisory including the entire state of Montana.  They also have a blizzard warning and snows from 10-20 inches including the bigger cities.  I'm guessing the storm won't have a name.

Model runs show no signs of coastal storms out to the 24th.  Next chance of rain is around Tuesday and that is only associated with a front.  Would be nice to get a calm week of weather to help all the people affected by both of these latest storms.

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Winds of Change

Though it is election night my title has no basis in politics but instead is an early look into a new weather pattern.  However, there is a major story before we can look into any changes.

Sitting here with a micro brew waiting patiently to hear who will win the election, it is strange to think that last week a monstrous storm was beginning to pull away from this area, leaving a trail of destruction never before seen.  And now we have a winter weather advisory.

I have been cautious since the storm first showed on the models about our area receiving any snow.  With a few hours to go I still am.  These things are tricky.  I will continue to sound like a broken record about these storms.  We are so close to the far western reaches of the storm I just can't honestly say we will see something.  Put it this way.  Draw a straight line from western Berks County east to the New Jersey coast.  The closer you get to the water, the better the chance for snow.  Of course there is also the cutoff between rain and snow so you have that too.

The latest run off the North American from tonight would give us some light snowfall.  It will update again before I go to bed which I will include the update somewhere on here.  At this point the highest snowfall would be just outside of Philadelphia say maybe Doylestown.

Of course this is not the main story.  Once again the coast of New Jersey is going to take a hard punch.  Winds will probably top off around 60 mph with heavy rain and coastal flooding.  Places that took a terrible hit last week will take another shot tomorrow.  Top it off with cold air rushing in behind that could change rain to snow in some locations by late tomorrow night.  What can you do?

There is some good news though.  The storm will kick change the pattern that we've been in recently.  The NAO is projected to be increasing positive from the 9th to the 21st.  It basically signals to me that the trough in the east will be gone meaning no storms coming up the coast and probably warmer temperatures.  As much as I love winter, there are millions of people in this area that could use a warm up.  Keep in mind, the average temperature for this time of year should be around 60 for a high.  We haven't hit 49 yet this month and won't do it until at least the weekend.  For some perspective, only three days last November had a high of 49 or less. 

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UPDATE: 10:00

Latest run is in and not a big change.  Moisture is actually pushed further west but intensity not as strong.  Storm also moved a bit south.  It won't help the hardest hit areas since they get the same wind field as the last storm with water being pushed inwards.  Heaviest precip stays from mid Jersey on south.  

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Sunday Update - Map Edition

Here we go again.  Of course nothing will compare to the last storm, but anything at this point spells trouble.  Let's look at the maps.

THIS IS A LOOK AT THE SHORT RANGE MODEL AT HOUR 84.  ARROWS ARE MINE SHOWING DIRECTION OF WIND AND OCEAN SURGE.  THIS WOULD EASILY FLOOD THE COAST.

NORTH AMERICAN SHOWS CLASSIC NOR'EASTER PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM DELAWARE TO MAINE.  NOTICE THE STORM AT AROUND 980 PRESSURE.  

EUROPE MODEL TAKES THE STORM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT IN OUR REGION.  CONSIDERING WHAT JUST HAPPENED I DON'T THINK ANYBODY CARES MUCH ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN LOCALLY.

CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER STORM THAN THE OTHERS.  THIS ONE IS AT 965 WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN.

It is still too early to get into dynamics of the storm.  It's not looking good once again for New Jersey and New York at least along the water.  I'm somewhat surprised that most models tend to agree on a coastal storm already.

This is one of the those typical eastern winter storms that will be tough to pinpoint what happens inland.  There is cold air to work with but I'm leaning against snow for anybody outside of higher elevated areas. 

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UPDATE FROM THE WEATHER SERVICE

* Safe for download using Adobe

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Retiring A Name

There is no question that there will never be another tropical storm named Sandy.  By now we have all seen the pictures of the absolute destruction that this hybrid storm delivered to much of the east coast.  In many areas things will never be the same.  It will take a long time to begin the process of cleaning up and rebuilding.  Unfortunately those of us who followed this storm knew it would be like no other.

I hesitate to ever use the term Perfect Storm.  There is no real classification for what makes a storm perfect.  This one was probably about as close as you are going to get where all the ingredients came together at the exact same time to cause a one in a hundred years storm.  It really was quite incredible, and I doubt we will ever see something like this again for our area.

Fortunately for this general area, we got pretty lucky.  Because the storm took almost direct aim at us, many of the worst parts of the storm moved in a different direction.  The heaviest rains stayed on the southwest side of the storm which was just to our south through most of Maryland and Virginia.  The winds stayed on the northeast side until the storm came onshore and bypassed over top of us.  The damage locally along with outages were sporadic.  In fact for me personally I usually see more problems after a strong line of thunderstorms pass.  However this was not the case for a lot of people.

I will start to sound like a broken record but we are moving into that time of season, hell I'm pretty sure Sandy already welcomed it, when storms start moving up the coast and give us the classic nor'easter.  In fact I'm not sure if they technically will say a hurricane made landfall in New Jersey since the storm transferred over.  Not that it matters.  Often they say it takes a storm to shift the pattern.  Did this one do it?  I guess we won't know yet.

However, the NAO shows a strong negative number early next week.  With that you get the idea that something could be brewing.  The model is starting to pick up something.  I will leave it at that.  The point I want to make is that the northeast takes punishment all winter long from these storms.  They are nothing like what just occurred but nonetheless the principal is the same.  Storms spin with the counterclockwise rotation that will push water inland.  Flooding is very common near the coast as is wind damage with winds upwards of hurricane strength.  The problem now is everything that was there to protect properties and land is gone.  The dunes are gone.  The layout of the shore has changed.  This is why, as cleanup continues, any sign of a coastal storm is going to be cause for concern.

It is going to be a long road to recovery for many places.  Some might never recover.  I wonder if some will ever come back.  The last thing they need is another onset of water rushing straight in. 

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Prep Time

As an amateur fan of weather and the unpredictability of the science behind it I've taken to my little corner of the worldwide web to make numerous posts about local, region, national and the occasional international story.  In that time I've had the opportunity to post about events such as the Joplin tornado and the historic Vermont flooding last season.  Both events I still follow today.  And within that same span I've made posts about other disastrous situations caused by the forces of weather.

One of my greatest passions involving weather is to see the formation, development and tracks of winter storms that ride the coast and produce some of the worst snowstorms for major cities in the world.  While these storms are inherently dangerous they are mainly nothing more than a nuisance for most.  As we approach the time of year when the summer/fall pattern shift into the typical winter pattern I always get excited to see what takes shape.  I'm not very happy at the moment.

Instead of covering the dangers of mother nature from afar it is looking like this area will be the one being covered by the rest of the country.  And what is forming is anything but your common storm.

Yesterday I made the genius post that my gut was saying the storm was going to either head out to sea or form to our north.  This is why you don't take random guesses based on feelings.  There was a reason I continued to say that the incredible negativity of the NAO was a huge factor with this storm.  Because of that high pressure sitting over the North Atlantic the winds will steer whatever is left of the hurricane directly into some area of the northeast.  That appears to not even be up for debate anymore.  The only question is where.

The latest model, which the NWS apparently also agrees, shows the storm as a hurricane hitting New Jersey sometime between late Monday and early Tuesday.  Here are two images that show projected landfall.

The storm at this point started to make a westward turn after continually moving north and even slightly east.  You can see the heavy precip over DE, NJ, PA and eastern MD.  Also take note of the black isobar lines that indicate wind strength.  The closer together, the windier the storm.  Needless to say this would be a hell of a hit for a lot of people including all the major cities because we also have to remember storm surge will be a massive issue.    

The second image follows the first and shows Sandy making landfall in central NJ.  It starts to become hard to see places anymore with all the lines.  However look at the winds and how far they extend.  We have to remember that these systems are usually very large and most states in the northeast are relatively small.  Even if the storm misses you directly it will still cause problems with wind and rain. 




I want to highlight something else about this storm for some perspective.  I know there are still a few days before this thing makes an impact for us but you have to prepare now for a worst case scenario as this could be a historic storm.  Notice the 943 and 942 in red under the L in these images.  That is the pressure of the storm.  The lower the number the stronger and more intense the storm is.  Normal pressure on a sunny, clear day is 1012.  That number is anything but close to that.  Katrina when it hit New Orleans was at 920.  The pressure on this storm if this would end up being accurate would normally equate to a category four hurricane.  Think about that for a moment.  That is the kind of energy this storm will have when it slams into the coast.

I'm not going to post all the other models mainly because every one I have the ability to look at shows the same thing.  Anywhere from southern NJ to New York City would be in line for landfall.  These scenarios would be horrible.

The good news is there is still a good 72 hours before we know for sure what is going to happen with this storm.  The bad news is that as each day goes by and the model runs become fewer and fewer the better the chance of somebody taking a major hit from Maryland to Massachusetts.

Here is the plan.  Pay attention to the forecast.  Tomorrow night should be a good indicator.  By Saturday we should have a very good estimate of where the storm will hit and the likely impacts.  Begin the initial preparations (batteries, candles, extra water) until we know more.  I of course will be following very closely.    

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