Undeterred

It occurred to me this morning that in order to make it in your own business (not that I'm trying) you have to find a niche or untapped market.  We’ve seen it recently in the weather community either on a local level or a nation level.  Websites target specific areas.  Local television has weather on wheels with the newest technology and cameras mounted to anything.  Weather chasing has become a career for some no matter if it is hurricanes, tornadoes, floods or winter storms.  We can’t all be like a Jim Cantore, but even these few who are placed in the path of bad weather will only stand in the elements while the camera is rolling before finding shelter in a hotel or vehicle.  So after spending an hour outside this morning and seeing absolutely nobody, maybe I’ve found my own market of the few people who take on any condition.

It’s no big secret I’m not shy when it comes to tackling the outdoors no matter what.  My plan was to run this morning, hopefully in a light snow.  And run I did.  Except the light snow was a heavy sleet.  Oh well.  Not my first sleet run of the winter season.  I headed for the Lehigh canal trail to keep me off the streets.  On a normal day there would be runners, walkers and bike riders.  Today it was me and some geese.

Watching a train pass the Steel Stacks next to the river with sleet raining down and not a person in sight is a great way to begin a weekend morning.  But onto the weather report.

What started out as heavy sleet, on top of about a half an inch of snow, turned into a mix of sleet and rain (freezing) about half way through my seven mile run.  Now here is where we can get into a weather discussion.  One thing I probably mention every time I talk about freezing rain is that this terminology describes plain old rain that freezes to surfaces that are colder than 32 degrees.  It can be incredibly deceiving to hear and see.  Usually the air at the surface is below 32 but the air a few hundred feet up is warmer.  There isn't enough time for the transition back to snow or sleet by the time it reaches the surface so the water freezes on contact.  And because of my lengthy stay outside we can show just how easily this happens.

Obviously I didn't spend the overnight hours outside in the 20 degree air.  Also as a living creature my body is already giving off warmth especially while doing physical activities.  Needless to say there is going to be a good amount of warmth surrounding myself.  Yet after 40 minutes I stopped to take this picture of the front straps of my pack that sit directly on my chest where the rain hits.

  

Always a unique occurrence for me when your own items start to freeze.

I'm certainly not the only one who was out today.  It happened that nobody else was on the trail at 8:00 in the morning or earlier because there were no footprints.  Some might go out later or others were in a different part of town.  But it got me thinking of all the others times I've been out in less than desirable conditions.

Like that time in Pittsburgh when I began my trek from downtown to the lookouts on Mount Washington.  It was misty, overcast, with fog rolling in along the river and temperatures at maybe 50.  I think I passed one runner and that was in the city.  Not exactly the view I was hoping for.

Or the time earlier this year when the area got the biggest snowfall in recorded history with over 30 inches falling.  By the time I got out there had to be about 20 inches and was so bad I couldn't get my legs up high enough out of the snow to move forward.

This was me on the trail with snow just below my knees followed by Church and Main Streets. (Click to enlarge pictures.)

Maybe it's time for a new name for this site.  Something that focuses more on the people like me who play in this weather and less on the maps and graphs.

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Mark it Down

Winter 2016-2017:

November 19th

Now the question becomes is this enough to be measured or will this only go down as the first flakes of the year.  Might get measurable snow tomorrow anyway.

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In Other News

It's common for me to take a bit of a break over summer since my main focus tends to be on winter.  Which is coming soon by the way.  The midwest has not received that news yet.  One of the recurring subjects discussed on The Weather Channel recently is the lack of cold for Minneapolis.  The average date for the first recording of a 32 degree temperature is October 8th.  Now into November they have yet to hit 32.  They are not forecast to hit the freezing mark over the next 10 days.  Not that we are breaking records in this area, but we have hit the 32 degree mark four times so far this year and have multiple days forecast to go below freezing this week.  Needless to say the majority of the country is still in the same pattern dominated by a large ridge and warmer temperatures.

I'd like to try and find a correspondence with the end of daylight saving time and the weather except I'm not sure I can.  Either way in recent years the first 10 days of November have taken on a quality more inline with early autumn.  Last year we hit 70 four times in that span, once the year before and twice this year.  It usually doesn't take long after that for a shift to take place.  It looks like that could start by this weekend when the temperature trends shift back to average or slightly below average.  Temperatures aren't really the story.  Since the beginning of August we are under seven inches of total rain.  I wouldn't normally root for a chilly November rain, but in this case it is needed.

Since I don't always get much of a chance to post I hope to at least include random things that are happening in the world.  I was aiming to start with a winter video somewhere where winter has already started.  Unfortunately the news today was a bit different.  This is what rolled through areas near Rome in Italy today.


  

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Again

With the rainfall yesterday Allentown passed the five inch mark and for good measure decided to pass the six inch mark too.  There is another three hours left to see how much more can be added to the monthly total.

I arrived home about 30 minutes ago from the Reading area.  When I left it was warm and sunny as it has been most of the day in that part of the state.  The northern and especially eastern parts of the area have been bouncing back and forth between scattered showers.  It's been one of those months.  Tonight was more of the same.  The closer I got to Allentown the darker the sky became.  It started as large building clouds from a distance.  Then a steady rain started.  You wouldn't have guessed I started my drive with sunny and blue skies.

This same cell has been sitting over us for 20 minutes barely moving.  Most of the rain is missing the airport so it is unlikely this data will be collected.  Might at least make for an interesting night as more storms begin to take shape.  Updates to follow.

UPDATE 1:  40 Minutes have passed since that radar image above was captured.  Here is what it looks like now.  Very little movement.

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More Rain

Finished my last post and as I sat here...

Look who has an advisory.

Same areas keep getting the rain.  Their average is higher.  Has to be some reason.

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Misses to Hits

I previously talked about the lack of rain in some areas.  Today will not be one of those days as heavy amounts of rain should fall for most.  I hadn't taken notice of the difference until I went running this week.  My area is quite green.  To the point that everything would appear normal.  Travel south and it's a different story.  Grass looks more like hay that seems ready to burst into flames.

As of Friday Allentown has received over one and a half more inches of rain than Reading and will pass the five inch mark by the end of today.  Also of note July is on average the rainiest month for Allentown at almost five inches while for Reading it doesn't make the top three.  And for more useless information, Philadelphia receives less rainfall than Reading who receives less rainfall than Allentown in a typical year.

It's been a little while since I last asked the question about days over 95 or below 9.  Wouldn't you know we happened to have four straight days over 95 last week.  Now here is the answer for the past three years.  If you take anything out of this realize that in our area summer is pretty short and really not that bad.

Since 2014
Days Over 95 =  6
Days Below 9 = 50


Keeping with the rain theme, I had experienced very few instances this year where I ran in the rain.  In fact it was basically zero. Last night I decided to run to the Steel Stacks which I had yet to do this year.  There was a little blip on the radar which was headed in the direction of town.  I did my normal loop (and stopped at the running store).  Less than two minutes after I arrived the rain hit.  And it came down hard.  Many people went scrambling for cover.  I was hot so I stood on the lawn with more than a few others attendees.  I really enjoy a good rain.  It kept up for a good 20 minutes before slowly moving away.  As I left before it got dark it started up again when I got to the bridge.  I was thrilled and let out some woo's on the bridge.  Nothing like a good rain run.

I've failed to mention that over the past few days, and quite quickly I should add, tent city has emerged on the festside of town.  I'm not going to say the weather is going to be perfect for the 10 day stretch, but it is looking darn good.  No serious stretches of heat with temperatures right at average.  Garden variety shower or afternoon storm is possible, but that's about it.  Once again it looks like the festival will get great weather which is always a concern in early August.

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A Nice Day To Run

Once again another instance of one area getting bad storms with heavy rain while others completely missed out.  Storms rolled through Allentown this afternoon with strong winds, heavy rain and small hail.  I didn't notice.  Mainly because it didn't do anything where I was at as illustrated by these estimated storm totals from ABC Philadelphia.

 

A second bout of rain came through later in the afternoon while the sun was completely out.  I did my best to capture some images and of course look for a picturesque rainbow.  I'd go on, but I have a bed time.

You can see the rain drops on this one.

Now to the other story.

A few weeks ago I noticed a race coming up that takes place at the zoo.  It's basically the same course I use when I want to get in a trail run.  Not very technical (in my opinion) but challenging nonetheless with various elevation changes over a relatively small amount of miles.  Normally I would have been in but I thought better of it.  I already signed up for a 15k the week after and didn't want to do two trails back to back.  So I mentioned the race to a co-worker and said I would not be taking part.

Fast forward to Friday.  I figured I would get in a run on Saturday and then play my hockey game on Sunday.  Nothing too hard on the legs so I would be ready to go for the following weekend.  Towards the end of the day the same co-worker who I told I would not be doing the race at the zoo asked me if I was doing it.  I told him we already had this conversation.  I wanted to save my legs for the other race.  Then I thought, why not do it.  In the span of about 10 seconds I went from not thinking about it to strongly considering showing up.  After all I clearly did not sign up which would mean I would have to register the day of, something I never do. 

I decided not to run Saturday which was the slow build up to what I had already started to plan for.  I was going to the zoo run.  I had just the right amount of beer Saturday night before the 5 am wake up call on Sunday.  When I woke up I felt good.  The run was a go.

I wasn't racing though I probably started too far back.  I've run there many times before so I know what to expect.  I saved energy for the hills and only walked near the end on the steepest sections.  I also considered I was probably one of the few who had a hockey game to get to later and going all out wasn't necessary.  I still easily beat my quickest time.  Not only that I wasn't tired at the end and my legs felt fine.

The disclaimer on the site says the average runner will finish between 1 1/2 and 2 hours.  I finished in 1 hour and 29 minutes.  And that's how you go from not having any interest in doing the race to doing one of the harder trail races in the area.

       

  This guy agrees.

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Where The Rain Be At?

If you haven't noticed it's summer and with little tropical activity of late we have officially hit sporadic thundershower season.  Some places have seen a decent amount of rain while others have seen very little.  It's a big game of hit or miss and some of the hits are proving damaging.

Not often on a sunny day do you get alerts about tornadoes.  Somehow I am still on a list to receive warnings for certain counties when advisories are issued from the weather service.  Sure enough up pops the tornado warning for Northampton county.  Warnings are not good.  That's a clear indication something is happening as opposed to something might happen.  Now the county isn't very big, but it is somewhat long or at least longer than you might think as it extends to the Delaware Water Gap.  I knew it was unlikely Bethlehem was in danger.  Yet where I was at work there was absolutely nothing.  By the looks of it some communities across the border in New Jersey did in fact deal with a relatively weak and short-lived tornado.  This has not been confirmed simply my opinion.

If you were around Saturday you would have seen quite a storm line form and head towards the Lehigh Valley and Poconos.  The perk of being elevated and facing west really comes in handy when storms approach.  This was true again.

The bright portion of the picture below the dark clouds is a shield of water.  Here are a few more as it got closer and during.

Visibility clearly took a hit.  Oddly enough the storm did not have much lightning though when you are above the trees it can be a little weird sometimes.  It also passed through quickly allowing the sun to return.  But if you were 30 miles to the south you would have never known a line passed close by.


It goes to show that without tropical moisture we rely on the thunderstorm for our summer precipitation.  So far we aren't in a horrible position.  Get back to me next week though and I'll post this map again.  To be clear the yellow on the map is the first shade in the drought monitor so our area is under the abnormally dry condition.  Parts of central and northern New Jersey are beginning to experience a drought.

It's not too hard to understand why.  Less than two inches of rain was reported in Allentown in March, April and June.  July has been hotter than normal and that pattern looks to continue throughout the rest of the month


TRIVIA ANSWER:  The only date that has seen snow each of the past three years is February 9th.


Guess Again:  Our average highest daily temperature is 84 and our coldest average daily temperature is 19.  A basic understanding of math would suggest that we see temperatures both above and below these figures.  So what would be considered abnormal?  I don't know, but I went with a higher or colder than average temperature of 10 degrees (about) or 95 or hotter in summer and 9 or colder in winter.  Which leads to the question ---

Since 2014 how many times have we hit at least 95 degrees and how many times have we gone below 9?   

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Take A Guess

I'm slowly working my way back on this site.  The line of storms yesterday helped me revitalize my passion for the weather since we have not seen much in the way of rain lately.  Now I have not kept weather statistics nearly as well as I have kept hockey statistics.  -- Check us out on Elite Prospects.  But I have quietly monitored the past three years too closely.  So, in the spirit of winter which I trust is soon approaching can anyone take a guess on the following question.

In the past three years (don't look it up) name the only date we (Allentown airport) have seen measurable snowfall every year.  Or in basic terms, there has been one day in the past three winter seasons which it has snowed every day.

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Year One

On this date one year ago I was handed the keys to the place I currently reside.  It had been a long time coming.  Sort of.  After being the the lone family member exiled to Berks County at an early age I knew I wanted to return to the Lehigh Valley when I got older.  Bethlehem always held a special place for various reasons.  The town became so synonymous with memories I virtually closed the book on visiting for years.  An after work run in July of 2014 through the city changed everything.  I knew at that moment where I wanted to live.

This morning while waiting to leave for work at the very specific time of 7:12, I stood in front of my living room window admiring the view.  I wondered aloud when would I get sick of it.  The answer, not anytime soon.

I've felt as though I've lived here for years.  In some ways I guess I have.  I attended the first ever Musikfest, skated at the ice rink when it was literally outside and entertained myself on a porch near the high school by counting cars that went by.  It also helps that the town is filled with an abundance of events.  I'd list ones I've experienced over the past year, but it would take awhile and I would still miss a few.  The great thing about the area is there is so much more to explore.  I've only scraped the surface.  With a year under my belt the idea now is to continue to get out there.  Not only the events surrounding Main Street but the entire area.  Whether it is the numerous musical performances or plays or historical tours or museums or dinner parties or running events I will be taking it all in.  From Bethlehem to Allentown to Easton or the small towns in-between.  All while I document it on here.

Of course there will always be the weather posts.  I didn't expect to get a 30 inch snowstorm within the year I arrived.  That will be saved for the weather recap when this winter season ends.

There is plenty of time for fun.  Tonight will be for relaxing.  No better way to celebrate than watch the Edmonton Oilers pull out a victory later this evening.  On second thought, not even my move could turn that team around.  20 games to go and sitting solidly in last place.  Let's shoot for two goals tonight and work up from there.  

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Weird Continued

Flooding rains, ice and snow.  No, it's not a recap of the weather around the country.  It's what I've experienced on my commute this week.  A normal winter went out the window awhile ago.

One of the more intriguing things about a 30 mile commute each day through three counties is seeing the difference in weather conditions.  Add in elevation and it can become even different.  I could write a summary every week of the differences I notice.

With temperatures in the 30's on Tuesday the light precipitation had all frozen onto the trees as I went home after work for the majority of my drive where the elevation was above 800 feet.  I wasn't too surprised.  I also knew the roads would be fine after highs in the 50's the day before.  After a lot of years of following weather it can really help to understand situations.  Yesterday the torrential downpours came through.  Nothing severe in my area however the rainfall amounts were quite high.  Almost three inches in Allentown which was by far the highest amount I saw in the region.  It's the highest I have seen the local river and creeks since I moved here.  And then today on my way home on the hill there was a steady light snow falling for about 10 miles of the trip. 

Highs this week were in the 30's, 50's and 60's.  Highs in the upcoming days will likely be in the 30's, 40's, 50's and 60's.  Now the question becomes what's left of winter? 

There are two systems to follow for the upcoming week.  One will be for the Wednesday-Thursday time period and the other for the weekend.  Easier to focus on the first.  Right now we would be in the warm sector of the storm.  Rainfall could be heavy at times with blustery conditions especially on the back end.  The storm would help usher in some colder air for the end of the week.  That's when we would start to get into the next storm.  Too far away for anything.  The European is also less that impressed so no need to follow the GFS closely for now.

Now to sports... If the outdoor series of NHL games hasn't worn out it's welcome yet (one game a year please Gary) wait until this weekend.  Break out the board shorts and tanks and dare I say flip-flops.  Nothing says hockey better than high temperatures during the day in the 70's.  Luckily somebody smart decided to hold the game at night when temperatures will be a more chill hockey temperature of 60 something.  I believe Denver will now host the first, what I call, hockey polo game.  It's a combination of water polo and lacrosse.


As noted earlier, I often see quite a variety of different types of weather on my commute.  Today was no different except that maybe it was.  As the sun came up from the east, a line of moderate showers was approaching from the west.  You can see from the picture below the sun shining off the brick building compared to the grayish haze in the direction of Allentown.  Sunlight and water droplets.   

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Wacky Week

When winter is all said and done wacky might be the term used to sum the season up.  We aren't done yet so I will save that post for another day.  And yes, a post about the historic storm will surely precede my summary.  There continue to be storms to talk about and right now I don't have the needed amount of time to properly give to a storm that dropped over 30 inches of snow.

On to February we go.  Stay with me as I throw out useless information just for the hell of it.  If you thought February has been cold you must not remember the past two winters.  The highest temperature over the past two February's recorded in Allentown was 49.  The first three days this February were over 50.  The wacky theme continues.  About those lows in the single digits or even approaching negative numbers for the weekend?  It's about time.  Here is how many times in 2014 and 2015 we hit zero or below.

2014 = 8
2015 = 6

So far Allentown has only reached single digits twice let alone zero degrees.  I believe Reading has not hit single digits once this winter.  Looking at the trends it's unlikely we will get a colder air mass the rest of the year so let's get to zero.

Thanks to that arctic air mass the lake effect machine is back on which has lead to scattered pop up snow squalls.  Various areas of the region have seen quick bursts of snow.  I was most impressed with the event on Wednesday morning (I believe it was Wednesday) when I left for work with the sun rising and 40 minutes later was in quite the heavy snow squall.  On the radar it was about the size of two towns and basically came out of nowhere to quickly produce a snow that covered the roads.

** Random info alert **

That slow moving system of snow that pushed in on Tuesday that left many locations in Berks, Chester and Lancaster counties with 5 to 7 inches of snow also managed to accomplish another small feat.  It was the third straight year it has snowed on February 9th.

TO THE WEATHER WE GO...

Always nice when the two main model systems completely disagree.  Euro says next storm tracks well to our west which puts us predominantly in the heavy rain.  GFS suggest a few inches of snow before a change to ice mixed with rain.  Tiebreaker goes to the Canadian.  It currently agrees with the GFS.  So basically stay tuned and expect wintry weather to begin the week.  Plus there could also be something Wednesday night.

If you are trying to look ahead all the models agree that temperatures will rebound next weekend.  Though there does appear to be a chance for showers.


As strange as the weather has been for us, it's also been like that for virtually every other part of the country.  The warm weather in the beginning of the season kept the lake effect areas dry in November and December when they normally receive the most lake effect snow.  However it also now has kept the lakes unfrozen which will keep this area prime for more snowfall.  They still lag well behind compared to average.  Where am I going with this?  Allentown currently sits in 10th for the most snowfall this season for cities of more than 100,000 people.  The past two winters when Allentown received over 50 inches both years the city didn't finish higher than 20th.  We will never be able to compete with towns like Erie and Syracuse but a top 5 finish would be pretty cool.


 February 9th, 2016 Snowfall

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The Snow is Back

Aside from one storm we have had a grand total of 0.4 inches of snow this season.  We look to add to that total over the next few days.  Warnings and advisories are posted throughout the region.  Areas to the north show nothing which in part has to do with lighter snowfall and different criteria for an advisory.

Though most areas will not see substantial snowfall (compared to the last storm) this is the first measurable snowfall of any significance that will occur during a week day which automatically creates many more potential problems and issues. 

The heaviest snow appears to be located between Reading and Lancaster which most models show as picking up close to six inches.  One of the more intriguing things I've noticed is a slight shift to the north.  What that actually means, I don't know.  Right now the warnings extend from Baltimore to Lancaster and Philadelphia.  The models want to push that snow further north which after the last major storm wouldn't be a big surprise to me.  Take a look at the NAM model which just updated minutes ago.

 
You see 7-9 inch totals specifically in Berks county while places like Baltimore and Philadelphia are closer to two inches.  The NAM was quite accurate in the big storm in January so maybe it is on to something here.  I don't have enough time to get into the whole thing but the setup reminds me of the snow in Philadelphia when the Eagles played the Lions.  They picked up a fairly good snowfall over a quick amount of time in an isolated area.  Might see something like that play out again for very specific areas.

Speaking of football, I have still yet to see or read about anything from the Super Bowl.  As of 10:00 tonight I don't even know who won.  I had planned on doing my recap from the last monster storm yesterday, but after a long midday run, watching two hockey games including a nail biter from the Oilers and my evening recorded soccer game I ended up running out of gas.  Expect to see the recap this weekend when the temperatures drop to likely below zero temperatures.  That's why I was out and about this weekend.

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Allentown Wins

Very quick update before I head out into town.

Allentown finished with 31.9 inches.  I have yet to find any other town within our region who has reported more.  Below is courtesy of Philly.com

By the way I just noticed the dot marking the airport is not accurate.  You have to move it north and a bit east.  As I've mentioned before if you are standing at the PPL Center in Allentown, you are further away from the official reporting station for the city than I am sitting in my living room in Bethlehem.

Also, my title implies Allentown wins something.  They don't.  They just happened to have the highest totals.  The prize is a lot of shoveling with extra weight.

Wanted to quickly touch base on this week.  Nothing the rest of the year will compare to this storm, but it's likely the next rounds of winter weather will occur during the week instead of a time many people were off.

Tuesday into Wednesday needs to be monitored.  Nothing serious but there is an interesting dynamic setting up in the Baltimore to Philadelphia area.  Go figure.  Also, places to the north of Philadelphia (Allentown/Poconos) might have to deal with a very minor ice threat.  Then, monitoring an Alberta clipper for Friday which appears more like an Ontario clipper.  Total accumulations look like less than an inch.  Big whoop.

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WE DID IT

31.7 INCHES



Allentown is the only town/city reporting official or unofficial totals of more than 30 inches.  The report came in an hour ago as light snow continues to fall.  Totals will increase slightly.


Philadelphia is reporting 20.8.

New York City is over 27 inches.

Washington D.C. is at 28 inches.

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EPIC SNOW

This is going to be one to remember.  I recently got back from my journey around town.  There is a lot of snow.  I hope to walk around later if the snow slows down for more pictures.  The intensity over the last two hours has been insane.  My guess right now is around 18 inches.

I'm not going to get into specifics about my run/walk/hike.  However I came back through town on Market Street then on to Main and Spring.  I had been on the trail prior to that.  Word of advice.  Unless it's an emergency or you have a plow attached to your vehicle, STAY OFF THE FUCKING ROADS.

Luckily for morons there are people kind enough to help out.  Myself along with many other neighborhood locals and two other runners, helped numerous people stuck between Main and Spring streets.  In fact, I spent more time doing that than actually jogging.  It's nice to see the community come together but come on.

Just coming in now...

Allentown is in the lead for cities in our region.  They have reported 21.2 inches so far and well on the way to topping the 30 inch mark.  No other town has officially reported over 20.  Philadelphia is at 17.7.  I will post pictures soon from my outing and then more when I head out later.  

 

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8:00 AM Totals

Reports are starting to come in as of this Saturday morning January 23, 2016. 

Airports


PHILADELPHIA:  13 inches

ALLENTOWN:  9.4 inches

NEW CASTLE, DE:  9.7 inches

ATLANTIC CITY:  9 inches



Various Confirmed Totals


Mount Holly NWS:  11 inches

Flemington:  9.8 inches



There are also many spots that cannot be confirmed that are reporting over a foot which include Topton, King of Prussia and West Chester.

Expect 8-12 inches additional through the rest of the day for many of these locations.

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Local Updates

As in most storms even as we wake up to find drifting snow banks and sustained winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour, updates to maps are still taking place.  Winter storm warnings have extended north and west to include places like Scranton and State College.  Blizzard warnings extend throughout Philadelphia and the suburbs to Lancaster and much of New Jersey.

Totals are also on the rise after they had been rising consistently yesterday.  You can now add all of Berks and Allentown to the 18-24 inch club.  The storm will now take aim at a top 5 place in biggest snowstorms in the recorded history of Allentown.  So yeah, my prediction will be off by a little bit.

This is going to be an impossible snowstorm to measure for the average joe.  I'm still not sure how they figure totals out when winds are this strong.  It appears I might be up too early again to see updated reports come in.  As long as the storm is still cranking I am only focusing on our area.  We can recap the whole even when the sun comes out.  I'm also only looking for totals from official reporting stations because of the difficulty in measuring with the blowing of snow.

Looking at local power outages the numbers are currently low.  PPL is reporting about 2,000 in the Lehigh Valley while Met-Ed shows similar numbers in various locations.

I will try to trek about later if we get into a bit of a lull.

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The Fun Begins

It seems likely that the totals I posted this morning could be a bit off especially as the trends today have continued to push north.  Since I posted all the other predictions based off models I will not change my totals.  If I'm way off so be it.

The fun I reference in the title is in relation to the storm cut off.  Where will it setup?  Where is the dividing line between very little and very lot?  And yes I know that's not proper English, but I've been up at 5 every morning and probably will again tomorrow.  Now it's my turn to kick back and enjoy.

Fun fact number one.  I mentioned in a previous post the dry air and my concerns.  I just got back from running here in Bethlehem.  The air is dry and numbing.  No big surprise there.  But according to my news feed and other reports it started snowing in parts of Berks County at 5:30.  It's 8:30 now as I sit near my large living room window and there has not been a single flake of snow yet.

So I did what any amateur meteorologist would do and checked the local observations.

Look at Reading and see all the variables that stand out.  SNOW.  22 degrees (snow cooled temperature).  83% humidity as the atmosphere starts to fill with liquid.  Visibility approaching zero.

Now for the other side of the coin.

Humidity at 35% a clear sign the air is still very dry even if snow is falling at higher altitudes.  5 degrees warmer in temperature because of the lack of moisture.  Visibility is a perfect 10 miles.

The distance between the Reading and Allentown airports where this information comes from is 33 miles if you made a straight line northeast.  I have a feeling you will be able to draw a lot of 33 mile lines in various directions and get a lot of different results by the time this one is over.

As we approach 9:00 I thought maybe I'd end up looking out the window and seeing the snow whip around as I end this post.  Still nothing.  Not only that but I can look west and still clearly see the lights in Allentown.

****

Quick Note.  With the slight northern shift and heavy band of snow pushing in from the east, models are now starting to favor the Lehigh Valley for more snow than areas to the south and west because of their eastern position.  For the first time the GFS shows higher totals in Allentown than Reading.

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Last Morning Update

I still feel it's too early for predictions even though we are roughly 18 hours away from seeing snowfall.  However, since I've continued to post in the morning I will be taking all the various models and predictions and compiling a list of prediction totals for the large cities of the area.

At the beginning of this week you figured the watches and warnings map would be colorful.  There are winter storm warnings from Louisiana to New York.  Impressive.  I didn't look at models last night but did look at the areas in the watches and warnings.  These have extended just a bit north.  Still a fine line.  North of Lehigh and Northampton counties you get into an advisory and north of that is absolutely nothing.  Earlier in the week I mentioned the potential for blizzard conditions.  Baltimore, D.C., Philadelphia and New York are the unlucky ones this time.  Nasty conditions.

Let's get into the totals.  I'm skipping the local news total since they do ranges and NOAA because I don't think they have updated from last night.

European:  For the first time this week we see a northern trend.  The line between heavy snow and light snow is basically central Monroe county.  This is roughly 30-40 miles north of Allentown.  That is a tight line.

Allentown:  11 inches
Reading:  13 inches
Philadelphia:  16 inches

Canadian:  You know, I kind of thought this morning might finally give a good indication of what is going to happen and then I start looking at these morning runs.  This model has again shifted south.  Northampton County barely holds onto the heavy snow.  North of that you talk about a couple inches.

Allentown:  9 inches
Reading:  12 inches
Philadelphia:  19 inches

GFS:  A very slight trend north compared to previous runs.  Again Monroe is the dividing line.  They would see two inches according to this run.  Maybe what is more impressive is the incredibly heavy snow they show for DC and Baltimore.  You are talking 30 inches or more.

Allentown:  11 inches
Reading:  14 inches
Philadelphia:  13 inches  

NAM:  It's my first time posting this one because it's the first time the model has been able to pick up the snowfall for our area since I post early in the morning.  This is the short term model that only goes out 2 1/2 days.  Very similar to the others with the exact same dividing line.

Allentown:  10 inches
Reading:  11 inches
Philadelphia:  17 inches

Regardless of what happens this is going to be fascinating to watch unfold.  Many areas are in the zone to get slammed.  That won't change.  If you sit in Berks County or the Lehigh Valley you will be on the edge of your seat especially the further north you go.  All this time spent trying to figure out what the storm will do and you won't know until it is on our doorstep.  It just so happens we are the ones right on the border this time.  If this was Baltimore or even Philadelphia I'd be confident in giving numbers.

Let me talk to the Lehigh Valley first (especially the people in the northern areas) while everyone else can step away for a minute.  These are the people on the fringe.  It's a very odd place to be.  No doubt there could be a few inches, a foot or nothing.  My concern is there is a lot more working against us than with us.  One is dry air that could really cut into the storm.  Where the radar shows it snowing but it's not actually doing anything.  You need the atmosphere to moisten up which comes with prolonged snowfall or heavy snowfall.  The second problem is the track.  It struggles to push further north thanks to a blocking high.  That has been constant in most recent runs.  It also forces the storm east which helps portions of New Jersey and New York pick up heavy snow but again cuts off those high totals.  The one benefit to this storm is how slow it moves once it arrives.  This is what will help create huge totals for places to our south and southwest.

The confidence in larger snowfall totals in Berks, for now, is on the rise.  The heavy snowfall makes it that far north before quickly cutting off.  Philadelphia is primed for a good one.  That shouldn't change.

I might have to adjust totals tonight before this starts since we are over 12 hours away and there are more model runs to come out.

Allentown:  6.4 inches
Reading:  10.7 inches
Philadelphia:  17.1 inches

I'm in the camp where every 25 miles north between Philadelphia and the Poconos has the potential for massive differences.

By the way, not sure I've mentioned the Weather Channel at all yet this week which will surely have people all over the region.  Here our their latest projections.

Philadelphia:  18-24 inches
Reading (Areas north of the Turnpike and south of I-78):  12-18 inches
Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton (Areas just north of I-78):  8-12 inches

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Morning Update Part 3

This is the first update I am doing where I did not take a look at any of the afternoon or evening models yesterday.  In these situations sometimes you need to step back.  It's the same reason I believe posting snow totals now isn't worth it.  By Friday morning a complete shift could occur and you end up being off by 10 inches.  Let the storm take shape.

The Euro has been the one model that keeps forecasters from feeling confident about totals.  It's not hard to see why.  The southern shift has happened again and quite frankly I'm not that surprised.  Yesterday I started to favor the more southern route for this storm which could keep us on the outside looking in.  Before I dive into that let me at least look at the other models to see if they are trending in that direction as well.

New Euro totals from last nights run below.  Bordering now on 3-6 inches.

Recall that the Canadian model has been pretty robust over the last two days.  It did trend a bit south yesterday morning but kept us with a sizable amount.  Part of the fun in this is not actually looking at the model until I write the paragraph.  It has shifted south again.  This is actually a bit concerning.  The totals remain high for the area, but the moisture struggles to reach us.  Lancaster comes in at 28 inches, the highest so far of the three runs I've posted.  But look at Monroe county just north of Northampton.

They show 4 inches while Allentown is at 18.  On Tuesday Monroe was at 14, yesterday 9, then today 4.  What happens tomorrow?  Another shift south and Allentown is next in line to see a drastic reduction in totals.

Off to the GFS which hopefully has updated to at least Sunday.  This is the consistent model that has shown a foot of snow for the area.  If this has progressed south the trend is quite clear.  Wow.  A bit stunned.  Doesn't get much clearer than that.  Further south again.  We are now barely holding onto any snow.

These trends are why you wait to make predictions when you are on the cusp of the storm.  So here's what's going to happen today.  All the forecasters who are currently still sleeping will wake up and see the trend which will likely lead to some serious discussion.  Snowfall maps will be changed.

For instance.  Here is NOAA.  According to the latest models, which is what most people base predictions off of, this would need some serious altering.

This is why I choose not to post my own opinions about totals until more information comes in.  By tonight and especially by tomorrow morning we will have a much better understanding of what we are dealing with.  Or in this case, possibly not dealing with.  

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Morning Update 2

It comes as little surprise that once the storm hit the west coast the models began to disagree.  The trend even yesterday morning took the heaviest snowfall slightly south of previous runs.  Tracking every run can be a headache.  That's why I'd recommend picking a certain run time and sticking with it each day so you can see the difference in a 24 hour window.  The talk yesterday was of confusion with the Euro.  I checked it last night and yes, the run basically showed no snow for our area.  This morning the story changed back.

Here is a look at the same models posted yesterday morning.

The Euro above remains consistent.  That line to the north is still something to really watch.  I'm not sure how far north this storm gets but it's looking better each day that if you want bigger snow totals you have to go south.  Quite frankly I'm pleased to see how similar this is to yesterday.  We don't get rocked, but we still see a solid snowstorm.

If you look at the Canadian from yesterday you will clearly see a shift to the south as far as the northern edge of the snow goes.  In fact it's not all that different from the Euro run.  The exception is this model keeps our area in heavy snow. 

The GFS remains consistent with the intensity of the storm.  Again the totals are similar to yesterday.  The storm has a tremendous amount of moisture as it moves into our area, slows down a bit as high pressure blocks off a northern escape and give us a prolonged snowfall. 

If you took all the models and averaged them out you would be looking at 15 to 16 inches of snow.  By this evening I think we will know a lot more.  Let the information from today come in before starting to narrow down snow totals.  Even today might be a bit early. 

I will try to do another post if I have time tonight.  Otherwise I will be back with my early morning update part three.

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Here We Go

It appears likely that somebody is going to get quite a snowstorm Friday into Saturday.  Given that we are now three days away we can start to look into this a bit more.  My guess is that we should get a good idea of the path of the storm by tomorrow night.

Overnight the European model shifted a bit to the south.  Normally it's not a big deal but in a storm like this where two feet of snow is possible, any shift will have large implications.  Below are the snowfall totals with this run.

While the patch of grayish blue is noticeable with totals at three feet, I'm more intrigued by the cut off line.  If you like snow that's a place you do not want to be near.  Either way these are impressive totals for places from Philadelphia to D.C.  Lehigh Valley and Berks fall into the 10-14 inch range.


The Canadian model has remained consistent throwing back a lot of moisture inland.  The model suggests a similar area gets hit the hardest somewhere in the PA/MD vicinity.  The main difference is the cutoff line from the storm is well north and west compared to the European.  The snowfall totals are below.

Here we see places like Harrisburg and Baltimore in the 20+ inch range.  Our area shows totals from 10 to 18 inches.

Then there is our old friend the GFS.  I end with this one not because of its poor track record but because if you get up at 5:06 the model is in the middle of updating.  They too have shifted a bit to the south.  If you live in Baltimore you'd be pretty excited this morning.  Each model had over 20 inches of snow for that area.  Storm also seems to be moving a little faster than before.

This model has consistently shown the best totals for our area.  Here you seen numbers ranging from 17 to 20 inches.  We will see if that trend continues should I post tomorrow morning.


Before the flags start to wave and the excitement ramps up I'd like to point out the serious nature of these events regardless of what happens.  This isn't going to be one of those pretty snows you go out for a walk in.  This could very well turn into a classic blizzard for some areas.  Right now we would be one of those areas.  Aside from heavy snowfall the one clear distinction between a normal snowstorm and a blizzard are the winds.  It is going to be very windy.  Power outages and tree damage are very likely somewhere in the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic.  The bigger concern could end up becoming anything but snow related.  The onshore winds from the ocean in places like New Jersey could top out at 60 miles per hour.  There is going to be a very serious threat of coastal flooding depending on this track. 

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Sunday Morning Update

If you can remember all the way to yesterday morning you would have seen the lack of snow in our region according to the models for the next 10 days.  As models often do things changed within the day.  Had I posted the run from last night it would have been quite a different story.  Not only that but this coastal system continued to somehow press closer.

Once again things are looking different this morning.  The western track of this second system again moved west.  I'd expect most of the region to see light snow or flurries today.  The coastal parts of New Jersey towards Atlantic City should expect enough to coat the ground. 

What about next weekend?  Here is the latest suggestion.

That one inch project snowfall output has turned quickly to 7-10 inches.

I mentioned the Euro snow hole yesterday that kept us from seeing any snow over the next 10 days.  How about this instead from the updated run this morning?

 

In the span of 24 hours we went from zero inches to 20 plus inch totals all over the map.  This is over the next seven days.  Yesterday we couldn't even figure out the coastal storm today that now looks to give parts of our area snow.  Basically expect anywhere from 0 to 20 inches between today at 6 in the morning to next Sunday.

And you want to be a meteorologist.  

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