Winter Storm Warning

As expected, all areas excluding the Philadelphia region have been upgrade to Winter Storm Warnings.  Unfortunately as things begin to unfold, it looks like ice will be a major factor from late Tuesday into Wednesday.

I expect light accumulations of snow tonight with slightly more moderate snow tomorrow morning.  There will be a slight break in the action before the major storm system that will rock the central portion of the country moves in.  Enough warm air will move aloft to change the precipitation into a mixed bag.  A prolonged period of sleet Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night will cause major travel issues later in the day.  I've seen predictions of sleet accumulations up to six inches.  While that seems on the high side, it's not out of the question nor the worst thing that could happen.  That is where Wednesday morning comes in.  At some point this will all change to freezing rain, or rain that freezes to everything on contact.  Remember, the air at ground level will be colder than the upper levels. 

Wednesday is looking like a nightmare for those who have to go into work.  Truthfully, I would not recommend any travel Wednesday morning unless something with this system changes.  These types of storms that bring every type of precipitation are tremendously hard to predict.  The line between heavy snow, sleet and ice will be within a matter of 30 miles.

This has the potential to be a dangerous storm for our area simply because of the amount of ice that might accumulate.  I will be back tomorrow evening for a complete run down of everything that will be taking place including showing all the latest maps available.

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Winter Storm Watches Now Posted

Never quite seen watches pop up as quickly as they have today and tonight.

A WINTER STORM WATCH is now in effect for the following counties for 2-6 inches of snow, to sleet to freezing rain:

In Pennsylvania:

Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Montgomery, Bucks, Chester

In New Jersey:

Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex, Morris, Somerset, Middlesex


I'm trying to figure out a way to add a news ticker for warnings and watches.  Needless to say, these will all be upgraded by tomorrow.  The National Weather Service has certain guidelines they follow when issuing advisories, watches and warnings based on timing and location. 

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Monster of the Midway

I can't hold myself back on this upcoming storm.  At times, I might make two posts a day if time allows.  This storm has the potential to affect half the country and millions of people with snow amounts over two feet and a swath of damaging ice.

Places like Chicago, South Bend and Detroit are prime places to see extremely heavy snowfall.  The storm would cut across the Great Lakes to target central New York and northern New England with heavy snow.  The heavy snow might be the least of the worries with this beast that heads east.

Somebody is going to wind up with one hell of an ice storm.  At this time it doesn't appear that we would be in the core of it, though we would still see a mess.

The map to the right shows the probability of receiving at least a .25 inch of ice for Tuesday into Wednesday.  Mind you this storm has a 48 hour window to operate. Meaning this map wouldn't show the entire outcome. You can see that for most of our area, we are right near the 40% chance.  As somebody who looks at these every winter, that is pretty high.  Of course, if you look at the narrow red band, it doesn't look too bad for our area.  The problem, is ice is ice.  There is no bad ice storm or good ice storm.  The only real difference is the aftermath.  Do you lose power for days or just have trouble walking to the mailbox?

I'm still confident that snow is the first kind of precipitation that moves into our area on Tuesday.   We'd see a couple of inches.  As far as the icing is concerned, I think we are right on the border.  No doubt Tuesday perhaps all the way into Thursday will be a mess.  The only thing that I am disagreeing with on many of the forecasts is the amount of rain some places will be getting.  I think somebody, maybe in the Philadelphia/South Jersey area will be in the flooding potential category.

I want to show one last map that shows why these things are so hard to predict accurately besides all the different models and patterns.

These are the current temperatures.  I drew the white line representing that cut-off of potential snow/ice/mix or rain.  Notice how extreme the temps are.  This is what can be expected all week.  Temps either cold, mild or this strange middle ground.

Look at the Oklahoma City at 35.  South of the white line in Dallas it is 66.  Follow the line and places not far from each other are separated by 20 to 30 degrees.  Shift that white line north 30 to 60 miles and you have your battle ground for the ice.

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Little Clipper Packs Little Punch

It seems like the models are having a difficult time picking up the moisture associated with these systems.  First, it was the mid-week storm that was forecast initially to be a light to moderate snowfall.  Both the first and seconds low pressure systems dropped more snow than first expected because the models did not pick it up.  Then Friday, a day expected to see perhaps a coating, Allentown received almost an inch bringing their total over 30 inches for the season.  And now today, seven hours after it began, the snow is starting to let up with somewhere between one and three inches falling here in central Berks.

Of course these fail to compare to what we experienced and what might be coming next week. Isn't snow much more enjoyable when it doesn't stick to the roads?  Light/moderate snow all day without barely a flake on the pavement.
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I hate to make a call this early but I feel like it has to be discussed especially considering my, what I'd call luck, with the last storm.  See, I made my prediction of 10-15 inches of snow last Saturday for this past storm with the model runs from that particular time.  The models, like they always do, wavered back and forth.  However, I didn't because I'd be changing my totals every six hours like many of the locals meteorologists.

Here is what I see so far and I'll use the latest models as a basis.  Posted below are the runs that came out today around noon and the other at 5:30 p.m.  

 

I wanted to post both of these runs to show the difference even six hours can make.  And between now and the storm, there will be 12 more of these GFS runs, not to mention all the other models.  I'm not going to bother with the differences since they don't affect our area.

Let's use the bottom run since it's the latest.  The low (L) sittting over Oho is moving in a northeast direction.  What we've seen virtually all winter is this low form off the east coast and move north.  In simple terms, usually being on the left side of the low will produce snow and the right side will produce rain.  This is because the eastern side of the storm is still in the cold layer of air, while warm air rides up with the storm on the western side.  This model shows the storm cutting up through the Ohio Valley.  The dark blue line is a rudimentary rain/snow divider.

What can't be seen are all the frames before and after this one that make things much more complicated.  The front edge of the storm would move in with cold air still in place.  You would get your basic light snowfall with a couple inches of accumulation.  As the main system draws closer and pulls in warm air, a change to a mixture would occur before changing to rain.  The backside of the storm would then put everything in reverse with a change back to a mix and snow.  Add in the variables, like the exact tract and formation and once again we have one heck of a storm to follow that I will continue to stay on top of.  Because really, once winter is over, what am I going to talk about?

For the call:  Hoping I can go two for two on (in the weather world) a long range prediction-ish guesstimation probability of a storm we don't know a lot about.  I'm a thinking this isn't the classic set up for a snow storm in our area.  Things would really have to come together quickly for that to be the case.  I'm not saying it can't happen.  I just wouldn't put the probability of it very high.  Ice could play a role as there looks to be a good chance of a mixture of precipitation but a good amount of rain is also likely.

At this point, I'm not sure which of the three people would rather see.  Most people would take snow over ice any day, so I'd mark that one off the list first.  A heavy rain event on top of all of this snow could be a nightmare.  That wouldn't be pretty.  I think the best bet, as strange as it might be, is to hope for a mainly snow event.  Although, at this time it seems very unlikely.

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Stuck in a Rut

What a storm that turned out to be.  Was it just me or was that one of the best sticking snows?  You could measure three or four inches on small tree limbs.  Virtually everybody in the area came in somewhere around a foot.  My jaw dropped when I saw Central Park picked up 19 inches.  Now, we aren't only talking about the snowiest month ever, but perhaps snowiest season ever recorded in some places.

Here are a couple maps from Accuweather.  The first is the history of this last snow we just saw.  Notice the narrow zone of 12-20 inches within the darker shade of blue that stretches through Reading, Allentown, Philadelphia, North Central New Jersey and New York City and surrounding boroughs.

The second map shows the snow totals for the season.  It is pretty clear to see how storms have been tracking.  The white shade in central PA is being referred to as the "snow hole" this season.  Not close enough to get heavy lake effect snow and too far west to get the storms coming up the coast.  What can also be seen is the fine line for our area.  A variation of anywhere from 20 to 60 inches has fallen across the Valley into Northern New Jersey.  Meanwhile, New York is less than 20 inches away from breaking their all time record.

And it could happen.  This pattern of cold air and chances of snow is showing up on the models all the way into mid February.  Not even joking on this.  The light snow coming tomorrow and Saturday by way of clipper systems does nothing but get places like NYC a couple inches closer.  Compared to what we have been seeing, it's like drizzle in May.  What will quickly start to pop up on the radar and local stations is the storm that will take shape in the middle of next week.

Like a broken record, the track of the storm will be the ultimate factor because there will be plenty of cold air to work with.  

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The Heavy Wet Stuff

You might not see, in fact you will not see any harder snowfall this season then what is falling from the sky right now. 

 

This is the radar image taken from accuweather not 10 minutes ago.  The intensity of snowfall in Berks and Lehigh is incredible right now.  It might be hard to tell the different shades of blue, but look at the green.  The yellow and orange represent thunderstorms.  That dark green all around Baltimore is heavy rain.  Philly is seeing the transition from rain to a mix (pink) to eventually very heavy snow.  The craziness of this all cannot be put into words.

Yesterday morning I became so irritated by the local meteorologists that I turned the TV off and never watched another second.  They all said it would be a rain event for Philadelphia and even the suburbs would see a change over.  I couldn't believe what I was hearing, nor had any idea where it was coming from.  Fast forward 12 hours later and they are calling for 6-12 inches.  Mind you, I wrote on a piece of paper on Saturday 10 inches and haven't wavered.

Then I get up this morning to hear talk about the first minor system that will move through that will drop a light coating on the ground.  I admit, I radar watch during the day, and sure enough the storm's intensity is far greater than predicted.  Why do I listen to these guys again?  They are thinking 3-6 inches for the Valley and Berks.  12 hours later I'm hearing the possibility of 15 inches in Philadelphia and totals approaching 10 in the Valley.  Oh yeah, the first storm gave us 3 inches already.

I've really enjoyed sitting back and watching all of this unfold.  This was a storm I never had doubt in because it continually showed up on the models WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE.  That's why I became so frustrated with the local channels.  I just didn't see what they were trying to say.  And I made a new pledge.  I will no longer be taking any of the local forecasting seriously.  In the past two days they have made gigantic changes to their forecasts that they could have prepared better for.  Even if you look at my quick post from Monday, I mention my original call of 10 inches.

I think they try to do their best without causing people to run for the stores, but what gets to me is their hypnotic way of doing it.  

• First, it's the 30 second weather update at the top of the hour.  Come back in five for the full forecast.  
• Throw it to Tom standing in front of a giant salt pile at the local Department of Transportation. 
• Back inside for the weather, "Snow tonight, after the break we will give you totals and timing."
• Back from break to see Jillian at the local grocery store (reporting on???)
• Then back to the maps for a look at the current radar and road conditions
• Next we are out to Jim at the local hardware store where people are buying shovels and salt.  How many shovels do people need?  One normally lasts awhile.
• Back to the desk where we throw it to the weather guy who tells us everything about the storm that he has been predicting incorrectly the last two days.  We see maps, temperatures, views from parks, buildings, roads, a squirrels forehead.  We keep waiting..... commercial break.
• Finally, 25 minutes later.  We see the snowfall totals they are predicting.  Of course every station has changed these totals multiple times and none of the stations seem to be predicting the same thing.

 
Then the clincher that gets me every time.  The next morning with the storm departed, while reporting from similar locations they throw it back to the weatherman and we hear, "8 inches officially at the airport, right in the range Titan HD Radar XVII and the channel 2 team predicted."

I'm sticking with the models from now on.  At least they don't talk.

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Quick Post

This is the type of storm you don't mess with too early.  Tonight was still too early.  If you had asked me a couple days ago, I would have said anywhere from 10 to 12 inches of snow.  Ask me again this morning and I would have thought that mixing would really limit amounts.  Then the NAM model came out a couple minutes ago and...............................

If you were going to go by this prediction you could throw the mixing and rain right out the window.  When I used a co-worker's phone at lunch today, there was a chance it would turn into rain in our area.  Forget about snow in Philly and the coast.  All of a sudden, things are completely different.  This image would show heavy snow in Philadelphia, the Valley, New Jersey and New York City.  Mind you, with higher temperatures, this is also going to be a heavy snow to shovel. 

I still can't make any calls on this storm but I'm much closer to my original call of 10 inches.  Still a lot of factors between now and Wednesday morning that could change but with less than 48 hours to go, this is when things start to take shape.  If you like snow, the shape above is beautiful.

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Snow Talk

0.2 Degrees.  That is the low temperature my thermometer recorded last night.  Wonder if we hit the negative numbers tonight?  I'm thinking yes.

Back to my post.  This winter was suppose to be an average year in terms of snows and a little warmer in overall temperatures.  That would have been the typical La Nina pattern.  With February and another storm coming, I think it is safe to say this will go down as an atypical year.  

It got me thinking about snow totals that the area has seen recently.  There have certainly been some monsters in the past twenty years.  But we have all heard our older relatives weave stories of how much snow fell in their day and how much worse it was then it is today.  It led me on a hunt for the real story and the numbers that will back it up.

This is what I was able to find.

The chart is a bit small.  It was the only way I could fit it on the screen.  However, the chart shows the snow totals for the last 30 years for Allentown.  The purple box is the average total, right around 31 inches.  Now for some numbers.

Since the 1979-80 winter, 13 seasons have had above average snowfall while five seasons had less than 15 inches.  On the contrary, four seasons had over 50 inches.

2000-2009= Averaged 35.4 inches
1990-1999= Averaged 28.9 inches
1980-1989= Averaged 30.9 inches

Average snow total since 1980 is 31.7 inches.  Normal seasonal total is 32.1 inches.  No matter how you look at the numbers in the chart, it all comes out even in the end. 

But then I ran into a different chart.  One that got me thinking about potential changes in our weather.  Since 1922, when I'm guessing they started officially keeping track of snow amounts, 5 of the top 11 snowiest seasons have occurred since 1993 including the first and second.  All five are in the chart above including last year's 59.8 inches that made it the sixth snowiest season.

What does this all mean?  Absolutely nothing really.  I just found it somewhat interesting.  Unless a huge spike in snowfall occurs over the next few years, I read this as weather being weather.  The year after Allentown set an all-time yearly record of 75.2 inches, the city got all of 13.7 inches.  The very next year was the second snowiest ever.  The second and third seasons that followed combined did not hit 10 inches.

This all ties into the next storm.  The hype, the four-letter word hated by most in the weather business, is at a fevered pitch right now.  Weather is unpredictable.  I can't predict it, your local channel 2 guy can't either and neither can the dozens of models that try.  We could get blasted on Tuesday night with heavy snow and high winds or wait, no I think it is a mix of sleet coming Wednesday afternoon, or was it snow to sleet to rain to snow on Wednesday night into Thursday?  What if it misses us completely?  How dumb would that make us look?  I'm not diving head first into the hype pool just yet.  It's weather.  Things change.  That's part of the excitement.

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Extreme Cold Followed By...

Where oh where to begin.  I think some bullet points are in store.

• Snow predictions were about right on with most of the area receiving 4 to 5 inches
• I did however overlook the typical arctic winds that follow these systems that blew the snow all over the place.  Let's just say driving conditions I saw at 4:45 this afternoon were worse than what I saw at 6:45 this morning.
• I've been very pleased with the road conditions these last few storms and once again the main roads were well taken care of.  The exception this time was the street I live on.  According to my eye witness, the plow didn't come until 9:30.  By that time enough cars had driven on it to almost make it looked like it was plowed.  Needless to say, upon my return home, the entire road is covered in a 1/2 inch of ice-like snow.  The first street down the block, with far less car travel is as clear as a Hawaiian summer sky.

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I make my comments about the road because it is going to be cold this weekend.  I mean really freakin cold.  The cold you normally don't see very often.  We are talking single digits at night and highs in the teens during the day.  Add a little wind and it won't be very pleasant outside.  Here is a quick map I don't often share.

This map is predicting the low temperatures for Sunday night into Monday morning.  Coincidentally, there happens to be a number right in the middle of Berks county.  That number would be 2, as in 2 degrees.  By the way, the difference between the purple shading and the white is that the white (just barely to the north of Allentown) is below zero.  That doesn't happen often.

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I normally don't like to jump on storms too far in advance for many different reasons, but even I can't hold myself back from watching this one unfold.  If you happen to go to the websites of the two biggest weather information providers, that being Accuweather and The Weather Channel, the very first headline (at least of this writing) has to do with a storm at least 4 days away.  

TWC- Major Eastern storm lurks next week
AccuWeather- The East Shivers and Braces for Another Major Snowstorm

When those kinds of stories are the first thing you see when you get to a website, something is up.  Yes, the models right now show a major storm.  There is nothing new in that.  I think it's the overall set up that is causing the early commotion.  The set up is calling for a blocking high over the Canadian Maritimes.  The low would form in the same spot it usually always does and slowly come up the coast.

The keys here are slowly and blocking high.  A slow moving, intensifying low pressure system, being blocked from the normal path, well... let's just say this is something to keep an eye on. 

To keep in spirit with the recent and likely next snowfalls, I will take a look at some snow totals from the past for Allentown.

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Quick Snow Map

 

The post time for this entry will say around 7 p.m. but that is only for the map above.  I just wanted to get that on here before the snow actually arrived.  

A Winter Weather Advisory is posted for everybody in the area.  In fact the entire state of Pennsylvania has an advisory.  You won't see that often.  I do need to explain my map briefly.  This is a very general map.  It also isn't the easiest thing to draw.  So to make things easier for myself I try to keep within pretty basic lines.  The green that I have shown is only to represent that some locations will border on the six inch mark.  I don't know exactly where they will be.  I kept with my 3-5 forecast that I've been saying for 3 days.  From what I've seen (and it hasn't been much) the local mets are going with 2-4.  I like to be different.  The pink swath in south Jersey is a stretch by a mile, but again, I just went with lines.

If you take anything away from this map it should be that there is going to be a large area of 3-5 inches, 2-4 towards the southern part of the region and a pocket or two of six inch totals.  

As far as the other factors, snow should move in and start by 10 tonight for most of the area.  As of 8:30 here in central Berks, it is still not snowing.  Like many of these past storms, the snow should be gone by the morning rush and whatever is on the ground will be very light.  This is not a back breaking event.

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Brace for the cold air this weekend.  It is going to be nasty outside.  In fact, some locations in our area will hover near 0 degrees.  There is another storm showing up on the long range models for next Tuesday.  I really only bring that up because after the snowfall tomorrow morning, the last 4 events will have occurred on consecutive Tuesday's and Friday's.  As of right now the models have it to our south anyway.

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Fresh Powder For Friday

Not going to post a snow map today.  Early call would be in the 3-5 inch range for most of, if not all the area.  There are still some factors left in play before I can make an exact forecast.  This isn't your big nor'easter storm coming up the coast, forming a low and intensifying.  However, a low will form as the storm progresses from the west off the coast of New Jersey and then make a turn north.  The track then becomes the important factor for mainly areas north of New York City. 

I promised to show the same model run 24 hours from the one I posted last night and here it is.

This is the NAM or North American Model.  This particular model is used best for short term forecasts as it only predicts 84 hours in advance.  For comparison, the GFS model (used most frequently) goes out over two weeks.  Unfortunately I got stuck in-between hours on this one.  The model predicts every six hours, so the model before this one would have been the predicted pattern six hours before.  The medium green shade seen over eastern PA and NJ would have been in central and western PA on the picture before this.  But that one didn't show the low.  In this picture you can see the low sitting out in the ocean with the darker shades of green and even some blue, which represents heavier precipitation.  The darkest blue line that cuts through North Carolina is generally referred to as the 540 line.  In basic winter weather terms, it's a not-so-perfect rain/snow line.

What can be drawn from this model and all the images before and after this is similar to what I said yesterday.  There will be a moderate snowfall for a relatively short period of time, maybe 10 hours or so.  On this current run, the storm is just a bit too far to the east for it to enhance snow totals in our area.  Now it doesn't mean things can't change.  In fact, there is one model suggesting a heavier burst of snow in our area and another taking it even further off the coast, which would limit totals.

This is generally the time you take all the information available and find a spot in the middle.  That's why I will stick with my first estimate and go with 3-5 inches.  The snow map will be up tomorrow night.

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The Fun Continues

26 degrees and a sleet/freezing rain combo.  That's what fell as I shoveled a couple inches of snow and sleet this morning at 5:30.  And people wonder how can it be raining at 20 some odd degrees?  Like the last post, it is all about surface temperature and the warm air that overrides it.  I actually thought the roads were in pretty good shape for the early morning commute.  Or at least better than I thought they would be.

Tomorrow morning could be different.  As the winter storm warning expired, a Winter Weather Advisory is posted until 9:00 a.m. for all of the area with the exception of Bucks, Montgomery and Hunterdon counties.  Although they all could easily have one too.  This time a smaller disturbance will move in from the west and with temperatures hovering right around freezing, a light mixed bag could fall tonight.  The big difference with this system is that there is no accompanying snow to start.  Anything that falls could potentially freeze on contact causing the dreaded black ice conditions that are impossible to see.  I think anybody would be happy to see snow again.

And you would be in luck.  I'm saying it loud and proud.  It's going to snow Friday.  The NAM is actually updating as I write this, so for fun, I will post a map of the storm when it is ready.  I will stress though that it is looking like it won't be anything major for us.  You'd have to go north and east (go figure) for the potential big stuff.  January has certainly not gone the way of the typical La Nina pattern.  And it's not over yet.  Snow map total will be up either tomorrow night or Thursday.

Always takes a bit longer, but here is the NAM run from a mere couple minutes ago.  Notice here the medium green shade across much of PA and all of NJ indicating a steady snow for Friday.  This run actually had the low going more off the coast and not turning up and hammering New England.  Those are the types of things that change.  I'll put up the same model run tomorrow night and check out the 24 hour difference.

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Tricky Tuesday

Even though this storm has been on the model since last week, I have been a little hesitant in trying to make a call.  If predicting snow storms along the east coast is difficult, predicting ice events is twice as hard.

Here is what we have for tomorrow.  First things first, we have WINTER STORM WARNINGS for Berks, Lehigh and Northampton counties.  Everybody else in the area is under a Winter Weather Advisory.  And I think this is a fair statement.  The one thing that makes these systems incredibly hard to figure out is the simple difference in air temperatures.  Warm air is going to override the cold air at some point tomorrow.  But cold air is heavier, meaning in many valley's, the cold air will get stuck.  When the precip falls, it starts as snow, moves through the pocket of warm air and changes to rain, only to move through that bottom layer of cold air and refreeze.  Cold air closer to the ground and your likely to get a freezing mixed bag, a little higher and sleet will fall and plain old cold air will get you snow.  I have a feeling we get a bit of everything.

I do think snowfall predictions are a tad on the high side.  I'd say a general 2-4 inches are in store for any point north of Reading.  Of course the problem becomes the mixed bag that has the potential to last for many hours during Tuesday morning, making driving potentially extremely hazardous.  Anytime you get this layering action of snow, sleet and freezing rain and conditions become far worse than your typical snow storm.  

Timing of the last storm was virtually perfect if you are a typical 8-5 kind of person.  The storm started later at night and finished early in the morning.  This time the timing is about as bad as it can get.  Snow will fall late tonight, change to sleet and mix with freezing rain for a good portion of the morning drive.  Later in the morning it could change to rain, but even that is looking like it might not occur. 

WRF Model, Tuesday Morning showing heavy precip (sleet)

Snowfall predicted by the NWS office in Philadelphia for our area           

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If this isn't your kind of weather, I apologize.  But there are signs of improvement.  And by improvement I mean even colder temperatures and a good chance for a decent snow storm by the end of the week.   

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Let it Snow

No, not for tomorrow.  I am sticking to my guns.  I wouldn't rule out a stray flurry here or there, but even a coating is pushing it in my opinion unless you are north of the valley.

The snow I'm talking about is what the rest of the country has been experiencing.  Florida has been left out in the cold on this one as every other state currently has snow on the ground somewhere.  It is estimated that 70% of the United States is covered in snow.  A rare feat indeed, but how rare?  I did a little digging and found the last time that snow was recorded in at least 49 states was way back in the winter of 2010, when only Hawaii couldn't produce.  However, according to some experts, this kind of thing hasn't happened since the 1970's, though records were never really kept on such a statistic.  Now I don't want to get into the whole progression of weather and the ebb and flow of historical temperatures that generally produce warm periods and cool to cold periods, but I think there will be some things to look at within the next few years that could give us a better idea of what is really going on. 

Back to the white stuff.  While us easterners were focusing on the storm that came whipping through, others were trying to dig themselves out too.  When we think about lake effect snow, portions of New York, Ohio, Erie and Michigan are generally places that come to mind as getting hit hard.  How about South Bend, Indiana?  Situated in northern Indiana, not far from the Michigan border and about 40 miles east of the southern tip of Lake Michigan, it doesn't seem like the ideal spot for lake effect snow.  Don't tell that to local residents.  Last weekend, between Friday and Sunday morning, the town received 36.7 inches of snow.  That's more than anybody saw in the Northeast from this last system.  

Notice the bullzeye right on top of South Bend.  Again, some of the weirdness of weather is shown on this map.  For one, the snow moved from north to south over the lake (not that uncommon) but somehow managed to hit one particular spot that happens to be home to 100,000 people.  Better yet, in one six hour window, South Bend reported just over 16 inches of snow.  Truly insane. 

A car under there somewhere waiting for the summer thaw

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No Rest For the Weathered

Between the talk leading up to the last storm, this week has really flown by.  As I was about to expand the weather window by taking a look at the rest of the country and world, I realized there is a lot to talk about for our area in the next five days.  So let's get to it!

I'm not into any type of hype for storms because it usually ends up being all for not, but looking at the last GFS model, which is the general long-termed forecast model, there are six different systems moving through in the next two and a half weeks.  Again, nothing to read into there except that I expect to be busy focusing on our general area.

I have to start with the system moving though the Great Lakes region this weekend.  I was fairly confident that the system would dissipate and move slightly north of the area anyway.  I've noticed I seem to be the only one in that boat as both Accuweather and TWC have snow in the forecast for Saturday.  For now, I'm rowing alone.

Even if some snow does come through, the real story becomes the storm that arrives Tuesday into Wednesday.  It's too early for maps and deep discussions but this is what I can say.  It appears as if two lows, one from the south and one from the west will come together.  Sound familiar?  EXCEPT, this occurs somewhere in the middle portion of the country.  The jet stream lifts along the east coast, drawing warmer air up from the south.  Instead of moving up the coast, the storm takes the Appalachian path.  I think this would be a good point in time to bring this talk to an end.  There are way too many variables to discuss this a full five days in advance.

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If the models and myself come around for the system on Saturday, maps and a post will follow tomorrow night for strictly that particular event.  If I still fail to see what the others apparently do, I will be back to look at a rare phenomenon, snow on the ground in 49 states.

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All Calm on the Eastern Front

The totals are in, or at least in for who reported and it seemed like everything unfolded as planned.  My predictions for Reading were just about spot on.  I couldn't find a report for the city, but just to the north here I measured right around 4.5 inches.  My Lehigh Valley totals ended up being a bit on the high end, and I wanted to quickly get into the reasoning.  Because many locations in Berks ended up getting the same or slightly more than points to the east.

The western storm that was to transfer energy over to the coastal low took longer to come about than originally thought.  The storm moving through central PA ended up being stronger than anticipated, bringing heavy snow all the way across into Berks County.  As the storms phased the snow filled in across the Lehigh Valley, but in the transfer, the coastal storm took over, weakening the western storm.  The Valley ended up almost being right in the middle of the transfer, keeping totals a little less than I though.  But that's weather. 

I mentioned in my post yesterday afternoon that our snowfall would be a dusting compared to southern New England.  On the right are the front runners, hailing from southern Connecticut, for highest amounts from the storm.


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Now We Look Ahead

Cold and wind almost always seem to accompany a departing storm and this one will be no different.  The isobars are packed tight on the WRF model right into Thursday with temps struggling to hit 30.

The weekend should be pleasant, if you compare it with the next few days, with temps climbing slightly and much less wind.  I've seen a couple weather outlets putting out a chance for a snow shower either Saturday night or Sunday.  I wouldn't sweat it.  The system is weak and to the north.

I don't want to gaze too far out to miss what is right in front, but there should be a warming trend next week that would put the next storm (Tues-Wed) into the liquid classification.  The cold air will come surging back quickly though.  Don't want to get ahead of myself.


While the calmness lingers over our area for at least a couple days, I will have some time to make some posts about what is going on in other places around the globe.

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Another Near Miss

I've never really been on-board for this storm, which for a snow lover like me is difficult to say.   Even last night when I saw the model, my feeling was we were not going to see a lot of snow.  Looking at the models as I just got home reassures my belief in that if anything, we will see less than anticipated.

The ingredients are sitting on the table and the oven is heating.  The only problem is dinner is going to be half an hour later than we thought and we forgot the potatoes.  We still get to eat but won't be as full.  That's what this storm is like.  It's still going to snow, but the storm will develop later.  Instead of getting hammered like our friends in southern New England, we will get a dusting (compared to there.)

There is not enough time to make a detailed snow map for this storm and quite frankly I don't think I'd even want to try at this point.  The models are still playing around and the supposed massive storm has yet to form and it's almost 5:30.  Instead I'm going to take a wild stab at things and give totals for the three cities in our area.

Reading:  4.7 inches

Allentown:  5.5 inches

Bethlehem:  6.1 inches

Let's see how it plays out.  I might try to get a post in tonight, but after days of watching the models, I think I'm just gonna kick back and watch it snow.

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Matter of Miles

I won't be able to make a huge post tonight with all kinds of maps and a detailed snow map.  There are just way too many factors that go into this storm.  I really would like to see the next NAM model that comes out later tonight.  Perhaps I can then post a map from that model.  Heck, I'd even like to see the morning models before I head off to work where I will be model blind until the afternoon.

All you have to do is look at the watches and warnings map for our area to see how tight of a storm this is going to be.  Our entire area is under a Winter Storm Watch, meaning there is a good chance for a sizeable snowfall.  The counties west of Berks (Lancaster, Schuylkill) have advisories.  Almost like a wait and see approach.  Philadelphia and every county in New Jersey besides the two in the northwest corner are under storm warnings.  Basically this is saying a heck of a storm is coming with a lot of snow.  Wilkes-Barre and Scranton have nothing. No warning, watch or advisory.

Where that low forms becomes so tremendously crucial to how much snow falls.  I won't sit here and say we aren't going to see anything, but there is a pretty good chance amounts will be limited.  Once again, this is where the next few model runs will be huge.  I can't say I'm convinced that points west of Lehigh county will see amounts higher than six inches.  Most runs (and they have for more than just today) continue to have the storm develop just to the east of Berks county but blossom over the coastal areas of New Jersey and into New England.

Unfortunately for us, we are in a real bad spot for this storm.  If I was predicting snow for New England and New York City, I'd say prepare for a foot.  If this was central PA, I'd say look out the window cause you can almost watch it pass by.  But our area, like it seems to have been all winter, is stuck right in that middle section. 

Updates to follow after the next NAM run in about an hour.  This could be the deciding factor.

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Storm of Certainty

It's time to dive into what could be the biggest snow of the season for most of our area.  First, I wanted to show something that is quite rare for a nor'easter two days in advance.

Above is the forecast from the NOAA for Reading.  If you are not familiar, this is the government weather agency or National Weather Service.  They are the ones that give out watches and warnings.  In our area the office is based out of Philadelphia/Mt. Holly.  Notice the chance of snow for Tuesday is at 100%.

Most weather outlets won't do something like this 48 hours before a storm is suppose to be coming up the coast.  However, this is a scenario that is very different and I completely agree with this call.

Now for the fun.  Like the last sentence I wrote in yesterday's blog, we are going to get snow.  How much is the million dollar question.  It is still too early to tell, but I can show what will be happening. 

At this time there is a snow storm moving through the Midwest bringing a nice swath of six inches of snow.  At the same time a snow is reeking havoc on the south with tremendous amounts of ice.  That storm is predicted to move up the coast while the one to the west moves towards us.  Here is where things get tricky.

At some point the two will converge and form one singular storm off the Atlantic coast.  Where that takes place is what determines how much we get.  The models have been consistent in showing the low form off of New Jersey and fly up the coast will tons of moisture.  This would put areas north and east of New York City in the thick of things.  In that scenario we would still see a decent snowfall. 

Here is how the latest GFS shows the storm.

  

 Notice the two low pressures, one near Pittsburgh and the other off of Virginia

6hr's Later: You can see the one main storm with heavier precip off the coast

I mentioned where the storm forms is key to how much we get.  Further to the south and we could be in for quite a bit.  Further north and we only get the western storm with lighter snow.  I didn't mention what a few models have showed and that is the low forming a bit further out to sea.  That scenario could take us right out of the heavy snow bands.  Of course the opposite would hold true if the storm would develop closer to the coast.

I don't like getting into accumulations too early, but there is a potentially large area that gets between one and two feet of snow.  What area that would be?  Time will only tell. 

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Southern Storm... Then What?

UPDATED WARNING MAP
12:30 p.m. Sunday afternoon

This is something you won't see very often.  All the purple and pink shades are winter storm watches and warnings, almost encompassing the entire states of Alabama and Mississippi.  These watches will continue to press north and east as the storm takes a turn to the north.

But is it too early to talk about the approaching storm for our area?  The simple answer is yes.  

This is your typical complex storm in that the track determines what happens where and how much.  You can look at every different model that comes out, but by the next run, something has changed.  And not only that, different models predict different things.

I have looked at the latest model runs and instead of posting maps or images I'm simply going to say this.  There are two low pressure systems, one coming from the west and one from the south, and we are going to get snow.

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Morning Update

** Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Berks and Lehigh Counties until 10:00 tonight. **

Lehigh county was added last night but Northampton and points north were not.  Tracking a line of snow, and when I mean line I mean like thunderstorm looking line, in central PA this morning and making its way east.  This doesn't appear to be part of that ocean trough which should enhance snow later in the day.  

I'm not going to make another snow map, but I would rotate the totals just a bit and push the heavier snow into mainly south Jersey and the lighter snowfall a bit to the north and east.

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Snowy Saturday Surprise

Before we get into the surprising system that will bring snow tomorrow, I want to take a brief recap of what happened today.  The first thing I have to point out is that I was about as wrong as I could be about the timing.  Anybody commuting between 6 and 7 this morning (like I was) realized it wasn't the best.  On the plus side of things, I'm very pleased with my snowfall map considering it was made two days prior.  Even if you look at my boundary line in our area, I couldn't have drawn it any better.

Allentown reported 1.7 inches.  (Predicted 1-2)
Bethlehem reported 2.6 inches.  (Predicted 2-4)

I have yet to find one location in Berks County that has reported anything.  Even Reading has not had an official report which is pretty typical.

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On to round two.  Wow!  Who saw this one coming?  The answer would be nobody.  Not even 24 hours after the last storm passed through, another very similar scenario will unfold tomorrow.  The only real difference is the snow totals will be the complete opposite.  Instead of the heavier amount being to the north, they will be to the south and east.  

Here is what I have for the system.

At this point I think I'd be more in line to stay with the lower end totals for our area, meaning more like a coating in the Lehigh Valley and maybe an inch or two in Berks.  South Jersey and Delaware are still looking to be in a pretty decent spot for accumulations.

As of right now every county south and west of Lehigh county is under some sort of winter weather watch.  Points north of Allentown, as of this writing do not have any advisories, though that could change by morning. 

The snow should be moving in by mid to late morning with varying levels of intensity.  Again, the map above is based off of where the heavier snow is expected to fall so at times these areas could get a period of heavy snow.  Like today, it should leave pretty quickly.

I'd like to try and get an update in during the morning before the storm in case anything has changed.  If not, I will report totals afterward.   

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Winter Weather Advisory

The entire valley including our New Jersey neighbors and points south and east are under a Winter Weather Advisory from the early morning hours until 7 p.m. tomorrow. 

I am sticking with my guns on this one.  I'm not changing my snowfall map from yesterday or virtually anything that I have said all week.  I'm still not even that convinced that the morning rush (depending on what time you would consider that to be) will be greatly affected.  It's really somewhat of an oddity for what is predicted to happen.  In a way, many areas will, for a brief period, pick up most of the snow total in what I could only describe as ocean-enhanced snow.

And what I mean by this is that the clipper is coming across the area with very little moisture, but as it nears the coast, cold air from the north and west will converge with ocean air from the south and east to form what I can only describe as a ringer.  Think wet dish rag rolled up lengthwise.  The tighter you roll it, the more water comes out.

Here is my map for the day.  One of the first to not show actual precipitation and perhaps the last for awhile if things hold true for next week.

This is taken from the last WRF model for tomorrow midday.  Notice the directional arrows from the westerly winds, then the easterly winds off the ocean and finally the arrows that almost form a solid line through Berks county.  That solid line is your very brief burst of heavier snow, i.e. the ringer affect.  This particular model shows every three hours, and the next image has this "track" along the Delaware River, then over New York City where the track sits a little longer and gives them more accumulations.   

Just to see the difference.  This is the same model, except these are the predicted winds by Sunday at midnight.  This would be a typical wind pattern for our area with winds from west to east.

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Models Consistent

It seems like all systems are just about a go with this minor storm that will impact the area on Friday.  The 18z GFS model is still very much in line with the run 24 hours prior.  So basically, if you read my post from yesterday, the same thing applies today.

Quick recap:

We could start to see snow Friday morning, probably not anything to worry about for the morning commute but it does seem to be earlier than I first thought.  Low develops (according to the last NAM model) almost right over Manhattan and kicks back a solid, narrow swath of snow from western Long Island to Albany.  Snow exists our area by Friday night.

Here is my snow map.  Don't think I will need to change this too much by tomorrow if at all.

 
I am not focusing on the areas that are not shaded.  I have enough to look at in our vicinity to worry about other locations.  This is the type of system, like many, that will have some pretty fine lines of heavier snowfall and lesser amounts.  That is what I wanted to try and show with this map.

Once this system departs, all eyes will be on the next storm approaching from the south for Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Calm Before the Storm?

I've got a lot to discuss and not a lot of time to do it in, but here we go.  Let's start right with what could be coming on Friday.  I've talked since the beginning of the week about the clipper headed in our direction for Friday.  Well once again, not a whole lot has changed on the models.  A few things have however.

Originally, it looked like a low would form and take over off the coast of New England.  Now the GFS shows the low forming off the coast of New Jersey and bringing the heavier snow south.  But remember in my previous posts that New England was in line for the storm, so a shift south would more likely affect portions of New York.  Read and take a look at my last posts and maps to see.

Here is the GFS model on Friday afternoon.  Notice the darker green swath in central New York.

 
Still, it is too early to determine the fate of the local area but I maintain like I have all week that this is mostly a storm for our northern neighbors.  We will see some snow out of this but at the current time we are not in the zone for a major accumulation.

I wanted to share a different map, other then the GFS as that one I have been using frequently.  Here is a look at the North American Model with the precipitation as the storm moves in Friday.  This image is Friday evening.  Again, the valley and surrounding areas are in the snow, but the area to the north is in the heavier bands that are being fed moisture from the Atlantic. 

I hope to get a snow map up by Thursday for this system.  Like most winter storms, there is already a new storm that the models are picking up for next week and the weather community is jumping on.  Hence my title, whereas the calm in this case is the light snow we will be seeing on Friday.  But I dare not get ahead of myself, after all, that is what I set out not to do here.

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Vegas Snow, Clipper Update

Okay, so maybe downtown didn't report more than a trace but the suburbs cashed in on a rare winter treat.  While not completely uncommon, Las Vegas received light snow yesterday and some areas in and around the city received up to an inch of snow.  The white won't last long though, sunny skies and temperatures in the 50's should take care of any accumulations.

Local look...

Tomorrow is looking like one of the better days compared to the long-range outlook.  Temperatures should be right around 40 before things take a colder turn.  By the weekend, highs might struggle to reach 30 and I won't even get into the following week.  Of course, we can't talk extended forecast without mentioning the clipper system coming out of Canada.

Quite frankly, not a whole lot has changed since I looked at the GFS model last night.  The system is still diving down from Canada and cutting across the great lakes.  It makes its way into the area sometime Friday afternoon or evening before a low develops off New England and rotates back towards the coast.  Here is a look at the GFS model as the storm spins over New England.

I'm not going to even begin to get into totals or anything like that, but in my personal opinion I don't see this one having a big impact on the area for a couple reasons that I will try to keep brief.  The first one is that the actual system is moving in to the north of our area with not a lot of moisture to work with.  While the low looks like a go to form in the Atlantic, the tract does not favor precipitation other then a few flurries (from the low, not the clipper) and some breezy and cold conditions. 

Back tomorrow night around the same time with more updates.

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Cold Returns and More

I want to preface this post by explaining what I am going to try and do with the remaining winter months ahead.  Many blogs and weather sites like like to look at computer models one, two or even three weeks from now.  Then we hear about the potentials that could arise.  This is all fine, but anybody living in the northeast knows that winter storms are incredibly hard to predict.  The last storm was a perfect example.  There was a chance, then a better chance, then almost no chance, before we finally knew that something was going to happen.  And the winter storm warning many of us were under for 6-10 inches was far off.

That being said, I'm all for winter weather and snow storms, but I am not jumping on the train two weeks beforehand.  I will gladly pass along information from computer models and give my opinion. Other than that, I'm going to follow the patterns like everybody else without making crazy predictions.

On to the first week of 2011.

The cold air will return after seeing a nice little warm up.  Temperatures should remain right around average to perhaps a bit below with high's this week in the upper and middle 30's.  The models are not showing any significant systems for the area throughout the week except for a disturbance coming out of Canada on Friday.  As of now it looks like a typical Alberta clipper scenario that could give the area a light snowfall.

 

Here is a look at the GFS model for the clipper that could affect the region on Friday.  You can see the low centered north of the Poconos.  This particular run would have the light snow enter the region Friday afternoon.








Like all computer models, this one will change many more times between now and Friday.  The only thing I could say with certainty is that this is not a blossoming storm for this area.  It will move through quickly wherever and whenever that happens to be.  There is a possible development for locations north and east of the area from Long Island to Maine.  That is too far away to determine.  Until then, I will continue to watch the models.

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Outdoor Under Lights

Thanks to warmer temperatures and rain, the outdoor hockey game between Washington and Pittsburgh will be pushed back until 8:00 tonight.

I will be back later for a weather and game report.

** Update**  Scattered showers are diminishing in Pittsburgh, but temperatures really need to be cool enough to support a fresh sheet of ice for this one.  Either way, this is probably the best thing for the NHL.  You get two of the most dynamic players playing literally in the spotlight on national TV, when little else is going on.

Here is the forecast provided by weather.com for the the game time hours in Pittsburgh.  I don't see any signs of additional rain so that shouldn't be a problem.  As far as the game is concerned, I think it is really hard to pick against the Pens in this one.  Crosby has been ridiculously hot over the last month, while the Caps are still trying to get things going.  However, this is the first outdoor game for Washington and guys like Ovechkin and Green are sure to step up.

My prediction:  Game Time Temp is 45
                        Final Score: Pittsburgh 4   Washington  3

Crosby picks up three points and Ovechkin scores twice and levels Malkin twice.

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