Cold Returns and More

I want to preface this post by explaining what I am going to try and do with the remaining winter months ahead.  Many blogs and weather sites like like to look at computer models one, two or even three weeks from now.  Then we hear about the potentials that could arise.  This is all fine, but anybody living in the northeast knows that winter storms are incredibly hard to predict.  The last storm was a perfect example.  There was a chance, then a better chance, then almost no chance, before we finally knew that something was going to happen.  And the winter storm warning many of us were under for 6-10 inches was far off.

That being said, I'm all for winter weather and snow storms, but I am not jumping on the train two weeks beforehand.  I will gladly pass along information from computer models and give my opinion. Other than that, I'm going to follow the patterns like everybody else without making crazy predictions.

On to the first week of 2011.

The cold air will return after seeing a nice little warm up.  Temperatures should remain right around average to perhaps a bit below with high's this week in the upper and middle 30's.  The models are not showing any significant systems for the area throughout the week except for a disturbance coming out of Canada on Friday.  As of now it looks like a typical Alberta clipper scenario that could give the area a light snowfall.

 

Here is a look at the GFS model for the clipper that could affect the region on Friday.  You can see the low centered north of the Poconos.  This particular run would have the light snow enter the region Friday afternoon.








Like all computer models, this one will change many more times between now and Friday.  The only thing I could say with certainty is that this is not a blossoming storm for this area.  It will move through quickly wherever and whenever that happens to be.  There is a possible development for locations north and east of the area from Long Island to Maine.  That is too far away to determine.  Until then, I will continue to watch the models.