Little Clipper Packs Little Punch

It seems like the models are having a difficult time picking up the moisture associated with these systems.  First, it was the mid-week storm that was forecast initially to be a light to moderate snowfall.  Both the first and seconds low pressure systems dropped more snow than first expected because the models did not pick it up.  Then Friday, a day expected to see perhaps a coating, Allentown received almost an inch bringing their total over 30 inches for the season.  And now today, seven hours after it began, the snow is starting to let up with somewhere between one and three inches falling here in central Berks.

Of course these fail to compare to what we experienced and what might be coming next week. Isn't snow much more enjoyable when it doesn't stick to the roads?  Light/moderate snow all day without barely a flake on the pavement.
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I hate to make a call this early but I feel like it has to be discussed especially considering my, what I'd call luck, with the last storm.  See, I made my prediction of 10-15 inches of snow last Saturday for this past storm with the model runs from that particular time.  The models, like they always do, wavered back and forth.  However, I didn't because I'd be changing my totals every six hours like many of the locals meteorologists.

Here is what I see so far and I'll use the latest models as a basis.  Posted below are the runs that came out today around noon and the other at 5:30 p.m.  

 

I wanted to post both of these runs to show the difference even six hours can make.  And between now and the storm, there will be 12 more of these GFS runs, not to mention all the other models.  I'm not going to bother with the differences since they don't affect our area.

Let's use the bottom run since it's the latest.  The low (L) sittting over Oho is moving in a northeast direction.  What we've seen virtually all winter is this low form off the east coast and move north.  In simple terms, usually being on the left side of the low will produce snow and the right side will produce rain.  This is because the eastern side of the storm is still in the cold layer of air, while warm air rides up with the storm on the western side.  This model shows the storm cutting up through the Ohio Valley.  The dark blue line is a rudimentary rain/snow divider.

What can't be seen are all the frames before and after this one that make things much more complicated.  The front edge of the storm would move in with cold air still in place.  You would get your basic light snowfall with a couple inches of accumulation.  As the main system draws closer and pulls in warm air, a change to a mixture would occur before changing to rain.  The backside of the storm would then put everything in reverse with a change back to a mix and snow.  Add in the variables, like the exact tract and formation and once again we have one heck of a storm to follow that I will continue to stay on top of.  Because really, once winter is over, what am I going to talk about?

For the call:  Hoping I can go two for two on (in the weather world) a long range prediction-ish guesstimation probability of a storm we don't know a lot about.  I'm a thinking this isn't the classic set up for a snow storm in our area.  Things would really have to come together quickly for that to be the case.  I'm not saying it can't happen.  I just wouldn't put the probability of it very high.  Ice could play a role as there looks to be a good chance of a mixture of precipitation but a good amount of rain is also likely.

At this point, I'm not sure which of the three people would rather see.  Most people would take snow over ice any day, so I'd mark that one off the list first.  A heavy rain event on top of all of this snow could be a nightmare.  That wouldn't be pretty.  I think the best bet, as strange as it might be, is to hope for a mainly snow event.  Although, at this time it seems very unlikely.