Storm of Certainty

It's time to dive into what could be the biggest snow of the season for most of our area.  First, I wanted to show something that is quite rare for a nor'easter two days in advance.

Above is the forecast from the NOAA for Reading.  If you are not familiar, this is the government weather agency or National Weather Service.  They are the ones that give out watches and warnings.  In our area the office is based out of Philadelphia/Mt. Holly.  Notice the chance of snow for Tuesday is at 100%.

Most weather outlets won't do something like this 48 hours before a storm is suppose to be coming up the coast.  However, this is a scenario that is very different and I completely agree with this call.

Now for the fun.  Like the last sentence I wrote in yesterday's blog, we are going to get snow.  How much is the million dollar question.  It is still too early to tell, but I can show what will be happening. 

At this time there is a snow storm moving through the Midwest bringing a nice swath of six inches of snow.  At the same time a snow is reeking havoc on the south with tremendous amounts of ice.  That storm is predicted to move up the coast while the one to the west moves towards us.  Here is where things get tricky.

At some point the two will converge and form one singular storm off the Atlantic coast.  Where that takes place is what determines how much we get.  The models have been consistent in showing the low form off of New Jersey and fly up the coast will tons of moisture.  This would put areas north and east of New York City in the thick of things.  In that scenario we would still see a decent snowfall. 

Here is how the latest GFS shows the storm.

  

 Notice the two low pressures, one near Pittsburgh and the other off of Virginia

6hr's Later: You can see the one main storm with heavier precip off the coast

I mentioned where the storm forms is key to how much we get.  Further to the south and we could be in for quite a bit.  Further north and we only get the western storm with lighter snow.  I didn't mention what a few models have showed and that is the low forming a bit further out to sea.  That scenario could take us right out of the heavy snow bands.  Of course the opposite would hold true if the storm would develop closer to the coast.

I don't like getting into accumulations too early, but there is a potentially large area that gets between one and two feet of snow.  What area that would be?  Time will only tell.