Matter of Miles

I won't be able to make a huge post tonight with all kinds of maps and a detailed snow map.  There are just way too many factors that go into this storm.  I really would like to see the next NAM model that comes out later tonight.  Perhaps I can then post a map from that model.  Heck, I'd even like to see the morning models before I head off to work where I will be model blind until the afternoon.

All you have to do is look at the watches and warnings map for our area to see how tight of a storm this is going to be.  Our entire area is under a Winter Storm Watch, meaning there is a good chance for a sizeable snowfall.  The counties west of Berks (Lancaster, Schuylkill) have advisories.  Almost like a wait and see approach.  Philadelphia and every county in New Jersey besides the two in the northwest corner are under storm warnings.  Basically this is saying a heck of a storm is coming with a lot of snow.  Wilkes-Barre and Scranton have nothing. No warning, watch or advisory.

Where that low forms becomes so tremendously crucial to how much snow falls.  I won't sit here and say we aren't going to see anything, but there is a pretty good chance amounts will be limited.  Once again, this is where the next few model runs will be huge.  I can't say I'm convinced that points west of Lehigh county will see amounts higher than six inches.  Most runs (and they have for more than just today) continue to have the storm develop just to the east of Berks county but blossom over the coastal areas of New Jersey and into New England.

Unfortunately for us, we are in a real bad spot for this storm.  If I was predicting snow for New England and New York City, I'd say prepare for a foot.  If this was central PA, I'd say look out the window cause you can almost watch it pass by.  But our area, like it seems to have been all winter, is stuck right in that middle section. 

Updates to follow after the next NAM run in about an hour.  This could be the deciding factor.