Fresh Powder For Friday

Not going to post a snow map today.  Early call would be in the 3-5 inch range for most of, if not all the area.  There are still some factors left in play before I can make an exact forecast.  This isn't your big nor'easter storm coming up the coast, forming a low and intensifying.  However, a low will form as the storm progresses from the west off the coast of New Jersey and then make a turn north.  The track then becomes the important factor for mainly areas north of New York City. 

I promised to show the same model run 24 hours from the one I posted last night and here it is.

This is the NAM or North American Model.  This particular model is used best for short term forecasts as it only predicts 84 hours in advance.  For comparison, the GFS model (used most frequently) goes out over two weeks.  Unfortunately I got stuck in-between hours on this one.  The model predicts every six hours, so the model before this one would have been the predicted pattern six hours before.  The medium green shade seen over eastern PA and NJ would have been in central and western PA on the picture before this.  But that one didn't show the low.  In this picture you can see the low sitting out in the ocean with the darker shades of green and even some blue, which represents heavier precipitation.  The darkest blue line that cuts through North Carolina is generally referred to as the 540 line.  In basic winter weather terms, it's a not-so-perfect rain/snow line.

What can be drawn from this model and all the images before and after this is similar to what I said yesterday.  There will be a moderate snowfall for a relatively short period of time, maybe 10 hours or so.  On this current run, the storm is just a bit too far to the east for it to enhance snow totals in our area.  Now it doesn't mean things can't change.  In fact, there is one model suggesting a heavier burst of snow in our area and another taking it even further off the coast, which would limit totals.

This is generally the time you take all the information available and find a spot in the middle.  That's why I will stick with my first estimate and go with 3-5 inches.  The snow map will be up tomorrow night.