No White Christmas

I tried holding out as long as I could but everything about the possible event before Christmas continues to say rain.  Not only that but it would appear that we will see absolutely no snow for November and December.

Off to a slow start?  That's for sure.  But you could make a case for a lot of places right now.  Syracuse just passed the one inch mark for the season.  That is almost unheard of.  Buffalo sits at three.  And the list keeps going.  Cleveland, Chicago and many places around the Great Lakes have seen some of their smallest totals to date in recorded history.  Remember, even though December has been a bust, Allentown is less than an inch off the current seasonal average thanks to October. 

While the east is missing out, the west is getting hammered.  Blizzard in Kansas, heavy snows in Denver, Flagstaff, Albuquerque and Cheyenne.  The next system brings snow all the way down into Mexico.  El Paso has a Winter Storm Watch and I'm pretty sure its not the first one this year.

By the way, it's not like we are bathing in cold air either.  25 of the 30 days in November saw the high temperature at or above the historical average.  December?  17 of the first 21.  The average high on the 22nd is 38.  In the next ten days only one is forecast to have a high in the 30's.

It's hard to say how this year is going to play out.  After all, today is only the first day of the actual winter season, but unless we get a major change in the pattern, we are not going to see any snow storms soon.  If you remember from a previous post (or scroll down) I included a predicted NAO chart.  Everything was positive.  Not a good indicator for snow in our area.  We need negative NAO to bring in the cold air and track storms up the coast.  Want to take a look at the next few weeks?

Last time I posted this disturbing chart was on my birthday and it look incredibly similar.  I'm sure you recall that since that date to today we have seen a lot of nothing.  So take a guess at what we might see over the next two weeks.  I can't even hype up anything just for fun.  Now the only question is will it be cold enough for the outdoor game in Philadelphia. 

Two of my favorite things.  Hockey and Weather.  At least I have something to look forward to.

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Watching the Models

Going to make it quick tonight as I have been spending a lot of time looking at the models over the past two days.  In fact I just got done with the North American Model that update at 9:35.  Why all the interest?  Remember how I said last post that there was no snow in sight in the forecast?  Things change.

The track has slowly been changing slightly eastward meaning cold air will come in from the north and west and possibly change rain over to snow in certain areas.  The question remains where will that area be.  As of right now our area would be in the zone to receive some snowfall.  Of course things can always change and we still have at least 48 hours to go.  I'm not blowing the whistle and ring the bells on this one.  I'm just putting it out there now, with the latest runs, there is a chance the area sees snow sometime Wednesday into Thursday.

We could get into totals but I don't think that would do much good for anybody.  In fact neither TWC or AW is predicting snow, and the NOAA has a slight chance.  Meanwhile, the models, which also calculate other variables like total snow on the ground has areas as high as 10 inches north of the Lehigh Valley. 

I will keep monitoring the models each night.  I could check them tomorrow and see absolutely nothing.  Either way we are not talking about anything major here.  But it's always nice to have something to track.  This is generally the time of year when we do start to see winter begin to take shape.

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Accu Update

Felt like I had to share this as Accuweather decided to update their original winter season predictions.  Personally I feel like this is just a way to continually change what was originally stated so they can eventually go back and say at some point they had it right.  Of course it's right when it's changed every two weeks.

If you click on the label below the comments that says 2011-12 Forecast, it will bring up all the posts that have to deal with predictions for this year.  As of now it is only my original prediction and the ones that the locals from Philadelphia stated.  I invite you to go back and what I wrote before anybody else stated anything.  And also look at the pictures I posted from the Accuweather site.


Now look at the map.

 - From the Winter Forecast Update:

In the updated forecast, near-normal lake-effect snow will fall around the eastern Great Lakes. However, snow amounts could still end up above normal in this zone from storms cutting away from the coastal Northeast.

With a storm track farther north and west compared to last year, snowfall will be near to below normal for the highly populated I-95 corridor, including Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. Stormy weather is still expected, but there will be more events with a wintry mix or a changeover to rain.

Funny.  They weren't saying this a couple weeks ago.  And they also predicted higher than normal snowfall for PHI and NYC.

Maybe they have started to read this site?

________________________________________________________

By the way snow haters, took a look at the long range for the next two weeks and see at this time no chance for snow.  There are two chances for good rains but both have warm air out in front (like I said in my original prediction would happen).  Of course sandwiched in the middle is a shot of cold air.  

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Got To Love Weather

It would be hard to complain right now about this winter so far.  After all, it hasn't started and we are already ahead of normal snowfall.  The lack of cold air though is a bit unsettling.  Especially when we sit here nearing the start of December at 65 degrees and there are winter storm warnings in Mississippi and Tennessee. 

I mentioned in a last post that there was nothing on the horizon in terms of potential storms.  While that has not changed, I want to be clear that it does not mean something will not evolve.  Earlier this fall I said I wanted to stay away from the hype of big storms weeks or days ahead of time when there are so many variables with living along the east coast.

Temperatures will turn more seasonably cooler by next week, even going below average.  How long that will last is somewhat of a mystery.  Signs point to a brief shot of cold with another warm up behind that.  There is a storm that would bring precip into our area around the 6th or 7th but again, like I might end up saying a lot this season, any snow would be inland.  It does open the door for the cold air I mentioned to invade from Canada.  Of course, there is no precipitation around to give us any snow.  I won't go any further than that.

But Hey, it's snowing in the south right now.  Some areas could see close to five inches.  Again, I will not complain but there are a few places up around the lakes that are really missing out this year.  Syracuse has still not hit an inch yet.  Memphis will after tonight.

I also couldn't help but notice while going through all my maps that it looks like Denver will see their third snowstorm of the season this week.  And this one looks like a good one with my early call of 8-14 inches.  Denver missed out last season so they deserve some of the white stuff this year.

You know how recently the NAO has become the term of the winter for everybody in this area.  In short if the NAO goes negative there is a blocking high over Greenland that alters the jet stream to bring cold air south and storms up the coast.  Well look away if you are squeamish at this forecast.

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Snowy Spotlight

Last year I had a fascination with Syracuse and focused on the snowiest city in the United States.  They ended up receiving 179 inches.  It was their fourth snowiest winter in recorded history.  Guess it was a good pick.  However, this year marks our second year of picking a snowy location following their season as well as ours.  And even though I will continue to monitor Syracuse, this year I will be following the season of Houghton, Michigan.

Houghton is located in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan on the Keweenaw Peninsula.  Is there anything better for a winter lover than to be located on a peninsula in the middle of Lake Superior?  With a population of about 8,000 and a town across the Portage Lake Canal of about 5,000, the area is big enough to be incorporated into our snowiest cities/towns.  In fact, if you thought Syracuse was snowy with 179 inches last year, Houghton averaged over 200.  They are said to be one of the snowiest, non-elevated, populated areas in the country.  And they embrace winter.  Michigan Tech, located in Houghton, has a winter carnival every year to celebrate winter that draws thousands of tourists.  The students even get days off from school.    Get this.  The bridge that connects the two towns has two levels in winter, one for vehicle traffic and the lower level for snowmobile traffic.  Pretty cool.

They love winter and celebrate the season.  This is a place I can appreciate.  That’s why I will spend this season, as long as it goes, following this very isolated area.  They haven’t received a lot of snow so far as lake-effect snow has yet to kick into gear.  Normally December is a strong month for that.  As of now they have received 18 inches with a chance for a couple this weekend.  

They keep great records, another sign of how much they enjoy the season and have more webcams throughout the area because of the school and their numerous outdoor trails than I have seen in most small cities.  Should be a fun little side project.  Besides, the more I see the long range models for this area, the longer I think we won’t be dealing with much.

I have added on the right a running tally that will monitor this friendly competition between Syracuse and Houghton.  Just for kicks, notice the complete domination that our area has right now over Syracuse.  Won't last long but funny to see.  

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Philly Phorecast

It would appear that many people took the October snowstorm as a sign that winter was going to rear its ugly head early and often.  Now we are approaching one month later without the slightest hint of winter weather or for that matter, any arctic air.  How long will this pattern of slightly above average temperatures last?  Indications are we might not see anything significant for at least another few weeks.  That would put us right in the middle of December, a good starting point for others to weigh in with their ideas.

The Philly Four have put out their 2011-12 winter predictions and even though it is after the first snowfall (and after my predictions), I will give them all a pass.  I watched the predictions and jotted down some notes to see who will really do the overall best this year.

Here are your contenders.

In the first corner we have 46 year-old Kathy Orr hailing from northern New York.  She has been chief meteorologist for CBS in Philadelphia since 2003.

In corner two from Long Island we bring you tough talkin 54 year-old John Bolaris.  He has been chief at Fox Philly since 2007 and has worked before at rival channel 10.

In corner three we have ourselves an accomplished triathlete in Cecily Tynan.  A well-known face throughout Philadelphia, the 42 year-old has been with the station since 1995.

In the last corner we have local favorite Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz.  He has been chief at NBC since 2002 and has worked across the country including The Weather Channel and has earned many well-respected awards.

I want to see bold predictions.  Take a stand.  Nobody predicted the last two winters to be as snowy as they were.  Two years ago the all-time record was broken and last season was the 8^th snowiest.  Anybody want to go big again?  We will go in numeric order.

CBS:

December: Average Temps, Little Snowfall

January: Below Average Temps, Below Average Snowfall

February: Above Average Temps, Above Average Snowfall

March:  Above Average Snowfall

Bold Predictions:  Very small chance for a white Christmas.  Two 6+ inch storms between late January and late February.

Total:  21-28 Inches

FOX:

Late December-January:  Snowy and Cold

February:  Ice

March:  Possible Super Storm of 15+ inches

Total:  24-30 Inches, 30-40 Berks-Lehigh

ABC

Cold First Half of Season

Storms Take Inland Track

More Ice Storms

Total:  22-28 Inches

NBC:

December:  Below Average Temps, 10 inches

January:  Below Average Temps, 14 inches

February:  Average Temps, 12 inches

March:  Above Average Temps, No Snow

Total:  30-40 Inches with one +10

Go no further Hurricane, I love the boldness factor here.  Not only does he go well above average (we will get to this shortly) but also gives exact totals by month.  Impressive.  And the boldest statement has to go to JB at Fox for thinking there is a chance for a monster snowstorm in March.  I can see a storm but 15 inches?  Wow.

CBS took the most moderate approach.  Nothing was out of the ordinary but they also put themselves out there with certain claims.  ABC on the other hand falls flat for my liking.  Not only did they make no serious predictions, the ones they did make don’t make a lot of sense.  They have the city receiving at to above average snow yet say storms will take an inland track giving Philadelphia more ice.  I agreed with this statement in my predictions BUT with this thinking, said Philadelphia would receive below average snow totals.  If ABC is predicting that kind of snow, then there must be a few storms that do not track inland or one very big coastal storm.  Either way, their lack of specifics makes it hard for them to be a contender.

If I circle back for a minute, I’d like to get into what the average snow is for the city.  Oddly enough all four stations had something different for average snow.  Not sure how that is but you do have to consider that after every season, that new total has to be averaged into the past recorded totals.  With that said I will go with the middle number and say Philadelphia averages 22 inches.  Nobody knows the actually average but we do know it has been on the rise.

And again to reiterate something I already posted, here at LVW we also like to go bold.  Maybe I need my own nickname.  I said at or less than average for Philadelphia. 

LVW

Total:  22 or less

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A Runner's World

When I signed up a week prior to the race held in Wyomissing on Sunday, I was not expecting to see snow on the ground.  That distinction would go to later races this year including the four-part series monthly races throughout winter.  My power was off from mid-afternoon until that night.  I prepared for the race anyway not knowing if it had been canceled or not.  When power finally came back on I went straight for my e-mail.  Race On!!

The driveway was already shoveled with my anticipation for leaving in the morning.  After all, nobody wants to go running after shoveling concrete for an hour.  I was a bit unsure about the turnout.  I knew a lot of the area was without power and anybody coming from a distance for the popular annual event would probably stay safely at home.  I parked in the area specified for the event about 45 minutes before the start.  Not a lot of cars.  It took a nice walk to get to the park and it wasn't long before you could see what October snow can do.

The heart of Wyomissing is filled with nice homes and tree lined streets.  And not rinky dink sized trees either.  As I turned on the road that led me to the park, branches were everywhere.  Snow was falling off limbs.  Yards were littered with leaves.  The road was a sloppy mess.  But in the distance there was a crowd.  We all stood in front of the large pavilion nestled in what I assume is a lovely park.  Forgive me if I can't recall much.  Most of the next 30 minutes was spent trying to keep warm and avoid the falling snow.  Both were hard to do.  At a crisp 30 degrees, surrounded by hundreds of trees, a hill and a pavilion, the sun never, and I mean never even came close to cracking through.  It did however keep people on their toes.  It was a constant barrage of snow from above.  Nothing that did damage or at least that I noticed.  Nobody was safe.

The course was now on its third route.  The first replaced by a friendlier road race due to the snow.  That changed race day when trees were blocking the course.  I headed up to the starting line in the middle of the pack.  It's fun to run but I don't need to be at the front sprinting around the first turn.  Besides, I knew a couple people from other activities that I talked to before the run.  If anything I knew this would be a bit of a challenge with parts of the road still covered in snow and leaves.  Then we were off. 

I love running in the cold.  It gives me the feeling I could run forever.  I did what is becoming a bit of a starting line tradition for me and started passing people by the bunches as we headed down the first road.  By the time we hit the first snow-free road, I had passed 50-100 people.  I had my sights set on more.  Throughout the next 2.5 miles I passed 10 or 15 more runners before heading towards the uphill climb when I was passed for the first time.  I had enjoyed the run even though the water from the snow made its way through my shoes.  I wasn't going for personal bests but just a solid and safe run.  I made my way up the extended incline back to the starting line.  No need to sprint in these conditions.  I finished a respectable 39th.  The only person to pass me finished in 40th. 

In total over 300 people showed up on a day that you would have expected in January.  It was the most I have ever run with.  And I know it won't keep that title for long.  You see, I'm not the only person who enjoys going out in less than ideal conditions.  There was also a half marathon in Gettysburg the same day that drew over 400 people and at least five races that Pretzel City Sports timed on the day of the snowstorm.

I have two more runs lined up for November.  One during the day in the farm country; the other at night in the city.  Both should draw about 200.  Then the series begins in December.  A series where runners came from six different states last year and my best 5k time would not even get me in the top 50.

In the meantime, you will see me out there along with my fellow adventurers.  When you pass, give us some room.  And remember, don't think we are crazy.  We laugh.   

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October Snowstorm

Here is the final map I will use as the snow has begun to fall here in Berks County.  If you averaged everything out I would expect 6-8 inches from Reading to Allentown.  Both maps seem to agree.

I will be adding pictures every hour or so of conditions and accumulation totals.  Afternoon should get much worse.  Latest model run for accumulation totals has places from Allentown following I-78 to New York receiving more than a foot.  Dad, good luck up on your perch.  Hopefully we keep power and trees stay strong.  Would not be shocked to see 15-18 inches up there.

Pictures to begin shortly...

10:00 a.m. 

1/2 an inch so far and starting to pick up in intensity.
Starting to stick on driveways and the edge of the road.  Must say I am pretty surprised already.  Didn't expect it to start sticking this soon.  Conditions certainly will be heading downhill.

11:00 a.m.



Snowing heavily.  Approaching two inches and by the picture below it has clearly started to stick to everything within the last hour.  Have to assume now that the roads will start to get poor much earlier than expected.

Don't want to post too many pictures on here so that it becomes hard to read.  I might start a slide-show.  Trees are really taking a pounding and I don't think it will be long before the one in front of the house goes.  Has all its leaves on the tree still.

Noon:  First plow of the year came through at exactly 12.  Three minutes later the road is covered again even with putting salt down.  Went out to measure on my back deck and down goes a large tree.  This is going to be a long day in terms of tree damage.  I'd expect millions of people to be without power by tonight.





1:15:  Still snowing at a solid rate but with dry air starting to invade and heavier precip west and east I don't see Reading getting the same totals as the others I've listed on the right side of the page.  Even Philadelphia is in really heavy bands.  Either way, I think we have lost power 4 or 5 times now so not sure how long I will be able to keep posting.  Sitting around four inches right now.  Highest reported total from the Mt. Holly station is (go figure) in Berks with Huff's Church (look it up) at 5.5 inches.

7:20 Final Update:  Power is back and the snow is tapering off.  NOAA totals for various areas even included my own town of Blandon.  30 minutes ago they reported 7 inches.  Don't expect to see much more.  If only somebody had predicted that at the beginning of the day at the top of this page.  It's been a long day and there is still some shoveling yet to do.  Because now that I checked my e-mail, my Sunday morning race is still on.

Should be a fun 32 degree run after a snowstorm in October.  Most of that sentence made very little sense.

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Winter Storm What??

I must admit I almost fell off the couch when I came home and turned on the weather.  All I wanted to see what the current temperature for my usual Thursday run.  Instead I was stunned.  Winter Storm Watch posted for my area for Saturday.  And all I wanted was a flurry!

I've had some time to reflect and remember a big piece of advice I gave myself last winter.  Never get excited until it is happening.  There is still 36 hours before this storm arrives.  At the moment expected accumulations for our area are shocking to say the least.  Especially considering that when I woke up this morning I believe the exact forecast for Saturday was few showers.  Fast forward and we are talking up to half a foot depending on location. 

However, I refuse to buy into this just yet.  A slight track west and the snow moves with it.  Doesn't mean we won't see anything but I have a feeling these numbers (below) will head quickly downhill by this time tomorrow.

Again, I am more amazed by that date in the corner.  October 27th.  And here we see the predictions of five to six inches across much of the area except 95 and suburbs.  It's almost like I was just talking about this.  I'm glad I got my winter prediction in the week of a potential snow event.  Never saw that one coming. 

To keep track of this progressing event, I will try and post the same snowfall forecast (from the National Weather Service by the way) tomorrow morning before work.  Honest opinion here.  I expect to see ones or twos in the Berks and Lehigh areas by tomorrow night.  Don't care.  I would take a coating in October.

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It's Official

Like first seeing my breath in the morning, another precursor to winter can be marked off the list.  First time the word snow has entered the forecast.  This year we can mark it down on October 26th as you can see below in the forecast from The Weather Channel for Allentown.

Now the last thing to cross off the list will be to actually see it snow.  Doesn't matter if it coats the ground, sticks to nothing or if it's a passing flake.  Snow is snow and I think many in our area will be seeing something before the month is out.

Got to admit the boys on the weather page I follow have been talking about this storm system for probably three weeks.  Most of the people on the page are very well informed amateur weather followers much like me.  That's an understatement.  They generally really know what they are talking about and have access to pro sites that cost money and all that good stuff.  Regardless of who is talking, I will never take anything seriously that far in advance.  Now that it appears things are coming together, I must say I am surprised.

Clearly this is not something to get excited about.  Unless the chance of snow in October gets you excited, then by all means jump up and down and enjoy this great weekend.  The first disturbance to pass tomorrow could provide some mixing in areas to the north of the valley.  Notice the 33 degree low and anything is possible.  Remember, it does not have to be 32 or colder to produce snow depending on temperatures above ground level.  The second system for Saturday is more up in the air as the track (go figure) will play a big role.  The unusual cold will be there.

In the perfect setup, the storm would cut through the area in a similar pattern to the one I discussed in my winter prediction.  Snow to the west, snow/mix in our area and a plain rain through the 95.  It would at least make me look somewhat smart early into the winter season.  Yeah, I can't believe it either.  Almost two full months before the official start and I already said winter season.

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Winter 2011-12

Are you prepared?  It won’t be long before the dreaded or perhaps favorite four-letter word appears on your local forecast.  In keeping with tradition, it is time to dedicate a segment of this blog to the 2011-12 winter forecast.

Over the past few winters the bigger cities and areas closer to the coast have been hit harder than interior portions of our area.  As backwards as it seems, the pattern set up to continue to allow storms to ride the coast and dump big snow totals on Philadelphia, New York City and areas along the coast.  It would appear that changes this winter.  I like to call this typical winter pattern, the north and west winter.  The logic is pretty simple on this one.  Watch how many times the local meteorologists single out points north and west of the city as getting the highest accumulations.  It happens if you watch the Baltimore, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, New York and probably even Boston stations.  It’s almost like it is its own geographical area.  But how far north and west will be the question.

Based on very little scientific evidence or any meteorological background, I think our area might not be far enough west for snow lovers.  What I do know is that we are in a weak La Nina heading into a stronger pattern.  While that does usually mean a snowier and colder winter in our area, it doesn't equate how much snowier.  Instead, we have to look at the jet stream that guides storms along a certain path.  Last year and even in years before last, the tracks took storms right up the coast hammering the big cities.  When the jet dips it also brings down cold air from Canada giving the perfect ingredients for snowstorms.  (Illustrated by me below)

This year the jet stream is forecast to dip through the central plains and make an upwards turn closer to the Ohio Valley.  This could make for a tricky forecast for our area.  On one hand cold air will be in place but at times there could be a moderate warming trend with highs 10-15 degrees above normal.  And while a La Nina pattern will keep things stormy, the air in front of the storm could warm up to just above freezing.  My theory?  I think areas closer to the PA-NJ border deal with ice problems this season.  (Below: Potential pattern this winter.)  Green line represents weak patterns that pushes smaller clipper type storms through the area.

My personal feel is that most of the action will be west of us or up towards the Pocono's.  The coastal areas do not favor well if you are looking for a lot of snow.  The I-95 area sets up for a battle between snow, ice and rain as do most of the suburbs.  The valley and parts of Berks will be very close to the snow.  But I can see places towards central PA seeing quite more than normal.  Here is my official call for this winter.  By the way, the locals have yet to make any predictions.  If I remember correctly they all basically keep it right at average even though Philly has been slammed recently.

 

Now here is a look at what Accuweather has predicted.  As I see other predictions being made I will be sure to post them unless they are worthless.  The NOAA's forecast came out today and their forecast for our area said something to the affect of "equal chance for warmer or cooler or wetter or drier conditions."  Thanks for the insight.  Leave it to Accuweather to put a map out there "early" and stick to it.  I like their style.  Let's see who ends up being closer.

And now they get a little more ballsie and decide to predict totals for random cities.  Notice they go above average for NY and Philadelphia for which I am going below.  I feel like the last contestant trying to bid on a scooter on The Price is Right.  The safe bet is to go one inch over what they predicted so I can walk away with the win.  But we don't play that way here.  I am going lower and that's the end of that.  Enjoy winter.

  

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Hitting Peak

It would only be fitting that one of the most colorful periods of the year would slowly lead into one of the darkest.  Regardless of personal preference for favorite seasons, almost everybody enjoys autumn.  There are plenty of things to enjoy.  The nighttime chill, humidity free days, brilliant colors, rustling leaves, the way the sun shines like a spotlight along rolling hills.  Even the weather is hardly ever an obstacle.  No sizzling heat or blistering cold.  Severe weather, tornadoes and hurricanes are all history.  It is that rare span of time when the weather is indeed almost perfect. 

The summer deluge has finally come to an end.  The staggering two-month rainfall totals have been updated on the right.  Really some astounding numbers in about a 60 day total.  Hard to believe we will see numbers like this again anytime soon.  And now October has fallen right in line with what we would typically expect.  We dealt with some warmth, breath-seeing cold and the occasional rainy day.  More importantly, we’ve probably experienced as much sunlight in the last week and a half as we did the previous month.

I’ve reached my own little peak as this is my 100^th post on LV Weather.  This project has certainly taken off far more than my previous hockey blogs of which at one point I had three that combined probably wouldn’t reach 100.  And speaking of that, you could add that to one of the reasons why this time of the year is so nice.  The blades are back and the ice cold as another season has begun.  That will help to contribute to my lack of posts for the time being.  Once winter gets going though, I expect to be filling these pages again full of useful information.  Until then maybe I can find a clever way to combine hockey and weather into the same post. 

Coming up later this week, I dive into the predictions for this upcoming winter.  Will it be anything like the rainy season we’ve had? 

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One Week To Go

It would only seem appropriate that the last week of September and the close to this two month rainfall total project would have multiple chances for rain.  And with my updated totals, Philadelphia will pass the 30 inch total.  Quite astounding when you consider that in a normal year, this would account for over 70% of the yearly total.  Wonder what yearly totals will look like?  Maybe more records to push.

Of course the perfect end to this rain-soaked end of summer would be to have a beautiful fall.  If the forecast for the first 10 days of October is any indication, it just might come true.  Seasonal temperatures and sunshine light up the first week of October.  Even though I'm not much of a sunny skies kinda of guy, we could all use a break from all this rain and at times, the humidity.

Speaking of the humidity, quite a different Sunday run this weekend then last.  One week ago, people were dressed in layers, some even sporting gloves or hats as race time temperatures started in the 40's.  Add in the rolling hills, fresh water and wooded path and it made for a great rookie run.  Yesterday, not so much.  Even had the race started two hours earlier like the previous one, it wouldn't have made much of a difference.  It was warm enough to sweat before the race had begun.  Seeing the sun finally break through the clouds as we approached the starting line only made it more interesting.  Running around Reading, even if we were near the river, provided far less shade than I expected as much of the race went on to roads.  Nonetheless, I am happy with my effort considering my weekend was jam packed with various events.

Seeing the cool air coming in for the weekend, I think it might just be time to sign up for the next race on Sunday.

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What Is That?

For a brief moment on Monday I actually thought we were moving towards the beginning of summer.  It was the first time the sun was out in what seemed like weeks, and the warmth hit me like one of those late spring days that the body is not ready for.  But alas, we are not heading in that direction and if you want confirmation, wake up early this weekend. 

Before we can get to one of the nicest weekends we have seen in awhile, some of us yet again had to deal with rain issues.  This is what the National Weather Service map looked like Sunday night.  Virtually all of Berks county was under a Flash Flood Warning as heavy rain slowly moved through.

The rain, which was not quite expected, helped raise totals even higher. As we move through the rest of the month, I will keep a running tab on the right side of the blog with rainfall totals updated after each measurable rainfall.  Hopefully we can slowly move away from this topic.  But even as I write this I can hear the distant sounds of thunder as a line of rain approaches.

Tomorrow brings a very special day for me.  It marks the return of the Hydrometeorlogical Center's winter weather page.  I can already feel the chill in the air and can't wait to enjoy some runs in the snow. 

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Current Precip Totals

It would finally appear that the heaviest rains have moved out of the area but not before giving my area a drenching thunderstorm at 2:00 am Saturday morning.  Now the cleanup can begin as the week ahead looks to be far less wet and should even turn cooler. 

Here are the current up to date totals for my five selected locations.

Philadelphia- 26.29
Allentown-  20.61
Harrisburg- 18.00
Lancaster- 16.88
Reading- 15.72


Philadelphia really jumps out to a big lead and are the first to hit the 25 inch mark.  I'm not exactly sure how their total jumped other than the original totals being not official.  Allentown was set to pass the 20 mark and they have done that.  I think it is fair to say that Harrisburg and even Lancaster also have a chance to top 20 inches depending on how the rest of the month goes.  Now the question remains if Philadelphia can hit 30 inches of rain in the span of two months.

As far as totals from this last round of rain brought on by the tropical system that affected the south, the higher amount were certainly felt closer to the center of the state.  Here are a couple totals for towns thanks to the National Weather Service.

Bernville, right here in Berks County, reported the most amount of rain according to the Mount Holly office.  They received 11.69 inches from this past storm.  In fact, nobody else that I could find received more than 10 inches in southeast PA or the western counties of New Jersey.

That was not the case in central PA.  Both Harrisburg and York reported over 10 inches of rain at the airports.  Elizabethtown had over 15 inches.  Hershey had over 12. 

As much as I like a rainy day, I am ready for a couple sunny days without having to update this portion of my blog.

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Race Update

Reading- 12.68 inches
Philadelphia- 23.02 inches
Allentown- 19.63 inches
Lancaster- 12.90 inches
Harrisburg- 16.08 inches

Makes you wonder sometimes with all the hysteria leading up to Hurricane Irene, the storm that does the most damage to Berks County and the Lehigh Valley is a tropical storm that makes landfall in Louisiana.  And a hurricane that will not make landfall in the United States has helped to enhance the rain totals that are now pushing 10 inches.  I can put myself down as never would have guessing this.  Almost makes me wonder what the next couple weeks have in store.  It would seem likely that things will really calm down.

Around my area it was your typical September day.  The local school district was closed due to the flooding.  Some schools have been closed or delayed four times in the first two weeks of school due to flooding or power issues.  We were greeted at work by an e-mail letting us know the detoured road leading away from the plant to the south, the road I avoided yesterday, will be closed possibly until next Sunday.  Yes, the Sunday over a week away from today.  And the road I took instead was also flooded and chewed up.  My co-worker informed me as we prepare to head for State College that the open-field parking for Saturday's game will be changed due to fear that if cars park on the swamp-like grass they might not get out.  And one game attendee will miss the big match-up with Alabama because his basement is flooded.  Just a typical once-in-a-hundred-year period.

At this point I am ready to see some clearer days.  Normally I like a cool, rainy day.  This is getting to be too much.

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Flooding Rain Update

It would only seem fitting that the day after I make a post about a rain total race, certain areas get walloped with rain today.  Judging by the radar it looked like the two cities at the bottom of the list, Reading and Lancaster hard hits.  I know I had a blast driving home from work today.

First some updates from Tuesday.


Reading makes a strong jump up from 8.7 inches to 11.01

Lancaster clears the 10 inch barrier and moves to 10.27 (I expect a very big leap from today's rain)

Allentown will certainly move past 20 inches when totals come out. They move up to 18.03.

Philadelphia becomes the first to break the 20 mark and currently sit at 21.54 inches.

Harrisburg was a bit on the shorter end moving up to 12.92.

Totals will rocket up tomorrow.  I have already seen reports coming out from some of the places above that put them upwards of five inches for the day. I wasn't quite expecting the amount of flooding I witnessed today. Perhaps it was just bad timing as I left work right after extremely heavy rain but those back roads we take due to a bridge being out were not in good condition. Probably was the first time I can recall being nervous. It seemed like every 25 yards the road was taken over by moving water coming down from the rolling hills. In some places I didn't even know where it was coming from. It was everywhere. Even when I finally got to a busier road it was flooded in spots. I went for a run as the rain had stopped and waters went down. People were out and about checking out the local creeks. I ran over the first bridge that houses the creek behind my house and you could tell it went over the road. Even a giant tree trunk was sitting next to the bridge. The larger creek completely closed the road as spectators gathered on the bridge to watch.

More heavy rain and thunderstorms are riding the track northward right now. I'd expect to see some large totals of rain tomorrow. Maybe somebody even hits six inches.

To answer view questions, I haven't read about any winter predictions yet. Joe Bastardi is usually my go to guy as his predictions have been very accurate. This is the first year he is not with AccuWeather and now works for a site that require a fee. The only things I have seen are predictions for an average winter so far. I will keep checking for updates from credible people. None of those sources include the local duds. And if all this rain over the last month and one week had been snow, well we would have blown away all records. The general rule is one inch of rain is equal to 10 inches of snow. So in just over one month, Philadelphia would be sitting under roughly 215 inches of snow. That's even too much for me.

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Race to 25

If precipitation totals in August and September were any indication of what is to come in January and February, we would be in for one heck of a record-breaking winter.  To my understanding, there is no collaboration.

Now the question in my head that lingers is who will be the first city in eastern Pennsylvania to hit the 25-inch rainfall total from the span of August through September.  What about 30?  Soaking summer thunderstorms in early August transitioned into drenching downpours from Irene.  And now we are in the midst of days of rain thanks to the remnants of another tropical system tracking over us due to a stalled front.

With that being said, various parts of our region have been hit harder than others.  But generally speaking with these three big rainmakers, everybody has had and will have an equal chance of seeing high rain totals.  However, the zone to watch seems to be the area between Philadelphia and Berks County.

In order to keep this interesting, one location from each region will be selected to represent that area.  This should help distinguish rain totals.  Obviously the selected city must report their rain totals so I will not be able to do as many locations as I wanted to. 

Let’s begin.

Starting with the hometown team and representing all of Berks County will be Reading who struggled in early August to get much of any rain.  It will take a lot to compete with some of the other locations but we will see how the month goes.  As of now they sit at 8.7 inches.

Representing the Lehigh Valley will be Allentown.  I couldn’t find totals for both Bethlehem and Allentown so we will just go with the one.  Allentown has been in that zone of solid rain over the last month or so where they seem to get a bit of everything.  Solid total of 15.33 inches.

The front runners of the competition and record setters showing the brotherly love is none other than Philadelphia.  They will cover all of the Delaware Valley.  They have been flat out hammered.  They demolished their record for rain in a month and are comfortably out in front with 19.82 inches.

Lancaster has also been in a bit of a hole when it comes to the rain but the city better known for farms and Amish will at least give Reading a battle.  They are a bit behind with 8.51 inches but should make a good push by the end of the week.

The state capital will be the last city in the battle.  Like Lancaster, Harrisburg could make a decent play depending on the rainfall this week.  They have fared better or worse depending on how you look at it than places like Reading and Lancaster.  They have received a solid 11.48 inches.

Totals will be updated anytime any of these locations receive rain.  I'm basically expecting a post every day for the rest of the week.  Hopefully we get a break before the next tallies as flooding would once again become a concern.  

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Irene Follow-up

I thought I was done with Irene after my last rant-like post. Turns out I'm not. Thanks Facebook.

I have bookmarked the Henry Margusity Fan Club on Facebook. It is the first page that opens for me and probably the main reason I even started paying attention to the site to begin with. Henry Margusity is the severe weather expert at Accuweather. Not only is he that, but he constantly discusses weather for the northeast, including every little to big snowstorm. On top of that he is very interactive whether it be through the page, on his blog, doing live discussions or through video updates. Now that we are moving into the third or fourth day past the storm, people on the page are still making comments about the predictions that were made. It has even become pretty heated amongst the regulars. Then Henry jumped in and posted the following (skip the middle portion):

Let me first state that I am glad he said that. I haven't heard anybody even remotely say they were inaccurate. And secondly, this is the exact point I was trying to make in my last post. I'm not taking away anything from the storm and the damage it caused, BUT the real focus should have been on the places that nobody talked about. When I woke up Monday morning, the Weather Channel's Jim Cantore was in Vermont covering what had been the flood. The raging waters were back to streams. Cantore had been covering the storm from New York City. A place that didn't see anything close to what was predicted. Instead, Cantore was left to witness the devastation in Vermont through pictures and videos on the internet. Just like the rest of us. And Cantore is from Vermont. Every person they interviewed said the exact same thing. We weren't expecting this.

As Henry stated, I have moved on. I just wanted to put my two cents in since following weather is clearly a passion of mine. Many people are still cleaning up and will be for awhile. Others have lost people they love. Even in areas throughout the Lehigh Valley and Berks, areas I don't consider taking a hard hit, people are still without power and could be for what ends up being a week. This is all part of weather. Chances are pretty good that another location in the U.S. gets hit before the season is over.

Personally, I saw my breath yesterday morning which has always been a favorite day of mine. It means we are getting closer to winter. The July hot spell has long been forgotten and there are no others warm-ups in sight. Even saw the first winter weather watch posted for Montana the same day. But all this can wait for the next post.

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Hurricane Irene: Aftermath

If only for future reference when I look back at my posts, I feel the need to give my reaction to this weekends event. Much conversation has continued since the category one storm hit Saturday into Sunday morning. Having scene the videos, scrolled through the pictures and read the comments, I give my perspective.

Heard the term bust being used. Taking into consideration the damage that did occur, I find that to be fairly misleading. Opinion of the storm will be subjective to what happened in your immediate area compared to what was predicted. Some places got what they were expecting, others did not and some were caught by surprise.

If you look at our general area, in this case the areas covered by the Philadelphia news outlets, I believe more people than not were expecting far worse. The hype leading up to this storm was a bit excessive. Telling residents of coastal New Jersey if they chose to stay to place an index card in their shoe with their name on it so they could identify them, while effective, is a bit much. Should this scenario happen again, these same people will not heed warnings and instead laugh you off.

Which brings me to my first point. Evacuations should be voluntary. Obviously our area is not used to dealing with this type of event and it showed. Closing major roads more than 24 hours before the storm arrived is borderline ridiculous. A lot of preparation must be done in order to leave your house for what could end up being an inordinate amount of time. Let people make their own decision based off the information given to them. But let them know that once conditions become dangerous, they are on their own. At the least this would help weed out the stupid from the intelligent.

Point number two. Hold the media accountable. I should preface this by commending the local stations for their tireless work during the storm in keeping people informed. However, please stop playing in the water.

This was not during Irene, but still one of my favorites.

We all know you are looking for the most devastated area to report from. Why wade into chest deep water to show the significance of the flooding is beyond me. Not only is it useless and dangerous, it sets a poor example. Expanding the coverage of the storm in terms of both damage and reporting, the media had their wall of reporters on the coast from North Carolina to New York to catch the money shot of journalism. Meanwhile, northern sections of New York and much of Vermont experienced horrendous flooding. Nobody was there to cover that. Instead I witnessed how desolate Times Square can be on a windy, rainy night. By the time I checked online news sources last night, the Vermont flooding had become the headline. All the pictures and videos were taken by locals and put on YouTube or Twitter. The national media was not in Vermont not because it didn’t have the big city flare like New York City, but because they didn’t know that type of flooding was going to happen. After all, that would have been a ratings delight.

This leads into my third topic. Trying to predict meteorological events has become nothing more than taking the very best educated guess. We don’t know when or where hurricanes will form or where they will hit or how strong they will be or what damage will be done. It’s a guessing game like virtually everything else. Lay off the apocalyptic phrases. It’s like crying wolf. At some point people won’t take it seriously and to be honest, I’m not sure how many people do now. Curiosity mixed with idiocy produces bad decisions.

Not sure how he held his composure with these dopes all around

As the title of the video indicates, these two scholars were later arrested for lack of common sense

I can't give an answer to the questions about hype. It is completely relative to where you live. My biggest issue is the amount of time spent focusing on areas that in the end came out pretty well. Many places inland experienced problems far worse. Should those people have been evacuated instead? It goes back to people making smart and safe decisions. And smart decisions should start with receiving the best possible information. In this case and in most others, I think the information was received. But it was presented horribly. I could write a few more posts about what people were being told that was inaccurate. And that inaccuracy is what will lead people to believe that they will be fine the next time a storm comes up the coast.


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Oh Yeah. One more thing. The weather boards have already moved ahead to look at Hurricane Katia and where that will hit. No, it's not a hurricane yet. But it will be. Then the dance can start all over again.

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Quakes and Canes

Anybody have the northeast getting hit by a major earthquake and major hurricane in the same week? Didn't think so. But so will be the case here in late August as a 5.8 earthquake hit Virginia today and Irene makes her way towards the coast.

Watched the first twenty minutes of the news today and felt like I was right back in winter mode. Reporters in multiple locations asking any passerby what they experienced today. Things shook. We were confused and a little scared. A can of tomato paste fell down. All in all, everybody was fine. And like their stories, mine too is a bit mundane to fill up a paragraph.

Especially when the major problem will be making its presence very well known in a matter of days. Since this is a blog dedicated towards local weather, I will try to keep my posts detailed with what the future holds for our area.

It still is a bit early to make a clear call on what will happen but I feel confident that this area will likely see some very heavy rainfall and maybe even sustained winds approaching tropical storm force. As for people closer to Philadelphia and southern New Jersey, well we can only hope for the best. That area looks to be once again the prime target for heavy rainfall totals which will clearly present a massive problem.

Even before we jump ahead to the weekend, which timing could play a key role, we also have to look at the threat of heavy showers Thursday. Guess it really wouldn't be much of a shock to see Philadelphia get the most rain out of the front that passes through. Again, if we look at best case scenario, the storms are hit and miss and don't cause any damage. The flooding threat with Irene, if the storm stays on the current path, could be devastating.

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Reading Rain Hole

I must admit that when I started this post, or at least had the idea on Sunday, I was not considering the potential impacts that the first hurricane of the year could have on the area. Regardless, I will continue this post while also putting in my two cents about the storm.

It would appear that central Berks county has been placed in a bubble. A very dry July compared to neighboring cities. And now August. It has been anything but dry and depending on what happens with Irene, it could become very nasty. But even while other areas get pounded by rain, Reading once again seems to be in a hole.

Check it.

Allentown is at 7.76 inches this month. They will certainly finish near the top five wettest Augusts since 1922.

Philadelphia is taking the cake with 13 inches. They already broke the monthly record and will absolutely demolish the wettest month ever perhaps by more than three inches.

And then Reading. How about a whopping total of 3.84 inches, just barely above average. If you think it's because the harder hit areas are all to the east of Reading, well Harrisburg also has received more rainfall.

Unfortunately it seems like the area is in line to potentially receive substantially more rainfall which of course would cause very serious flooding.



I hate to bring this up but if you look at my post from the 11th, I bring up a very specific location. As we approach that two week period I also mentioned in that post the current GFS model has the hurricane hitting, of all places, Myrtle Beach. And is it not odd that the first storm to impact the United States this season is also the very first hurricane of the season and we are already at the letter I?

Looking at the GFS track, the storm almost rides the coast like a winter storm. Which would actually be ever worse for the areas around here because the storm would not lose much energy. Places in and around the Chesapeake Bay and the southern coast of New Jersey would get pounded. And places like Baltimore, Philadelphia and all of Delaware and New Jersey would see very heavy rain and high winds.

Other models move the storm a bit further inland but that doesn't take away the chance for very heavy rainfall. I myself think the storms hit slightly further south then the GFS suggests, but once again, I don't see this area dodging the rain. Honestly, I just looked at two other models and one has it hitting Florida, the other has it brushing North Carolina and moving out to sea. This is where the science comes in.

Either way you look at it, a hurricane of this strength is not a good thing. We are a bit too far out to try and make guesses at what will happen locally, but if living in a flood prone area, I'd start to prepare now.

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Joplin Update from CBS

Nice to see this story still being covered. Less than three months and the progress really shows.

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Playing With Models

A hurricane is set to hit Myrtle Beach. If you believe the long-range forecast that is. I wouldn't sweat it. Last night the models suggested that two tropical systems would hit the U.S. on the exact same day, one in the Gulf and the other close to New York City. However, keep your guard up.

I forgot how fun it is to play with models. Normally I only use them in the winter. But with the tropics nearing peak activity, I believe I will be take a glance quite often. Much like winter storms, it is way too early to tell what will happen. One thing is certain though, somebody will be getting impacted over the next two weeks. Mark it down.

As for the GFS, it takes the storm virtually directly into Myrtle Beach Wednesday, then up the coast with heavy amounts of rain inland. And when I say Wednesday, I'm talking the one almost two weeks from now. Think something will change by then?

The one intriguing thing about this time of year when it comes to the Atlantic is that these storms tend to ramp up and begin to train. You see one wave come off Africa and begin to organize, than another one, than another one. You could have three storms all moving across the Atlantic together. Taking environmental factors into consideration, it begs to question whether you could actually get two hurricanes to hit the United States within 36-48 hours. Maybe that could be the next Weather Channel's, It Could Happen Tomorrow.

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Wicked Weather

Like I always say, if you don't like the weather here, go somewhere else for a couple weeks and get back to me. Try Dallas, Texas. The lowest temperature they experienced in July was 98, once. Only two other days were below 100. Thought we were dry? They got one hundredth of an inch of rain during the month. In other words, they got nothing. A new month has brought more of the same. In fact, Dallas hit at least 106 during 6 of the first 8 days. Something that happened only once in July. That area of the country is absolutely baking.

Then I saw an article about the Mount Baker highway in Washington which was finally opened up to the visiting center this week. It had been closed since winter because of snowfall. In fact, it was decided that the entire road will not be plowed due to upwards of 30 feet of snow still on the road.

And just today I saw the first predicted snow map for the upcoming season. Normally I would be excited, but since Joe Bastardi and his unusual ability to predict long-range weather left Accuweather, I am hesitant on believing anything. Quite frankly with the way things are going, you should probably expect just about anything. And by anything I mean something more than nothing. Easy to follow, right?

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Not Quite

My last post predicted some pretty unpredictable things. And while I didn't get either right, I can take some comfort in knowing I wasn't far off.

Back on July 16th I said it would hit 90 in Reading every day through the rest of the month. That would have been 15 straight days of 90. Two days failed to hit the mark, leaving me just short. And if it wasn't for that drenching Monday last week, Reading would have been well short of the one inch mark I was looking for.

I take some satisfaction in at least being accurate for Reading, the area I discussed two weeks ago. You see, Allentown went five days in a row without hitting 90 during that span and also ended July with an impressive 3.94 inches of rain. Even Philadelphia missed 90 more than Reading did and finished with half an inch more of rain.

Now that August has begun, the tropics are becoming more active and storms will start to develop quickly. It's safe to say that August will not be as warm as July, nor as dry for Reading at least. And before you know it, the leaves will start to fall and the air will be dry and cool.

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High and Dry July

I've often focused on the Allentown area even though I don't live in the actual Lehigh Valley. Other times I talk about Philadelphia, but technically I don't live in the Delaware Valley either. So for this post I will talk about my area, what I will call the Delahigh Valley or for definition purposes, the area in between.

Nobody can argue that this July has not been hot. Not unbearably hot, but warm nonetheless. One of those perfect months that people abuse pools and local fountains. The bigger issue however is the dryness. It's just hasn't rained. This is why I singled my specific area out this time. Both Philadelphia and Allentown have received over 1.25 inches of rain this July. Dry. But technically at the midway point of the month, not terrible. Reading this July? How about 1/2 an inch.

This is where I look into my crystal ball and make a prediction. And here it is. Reading will not hit an inch of rain for the entire month. And, the high temperature will hit at least 90 every day for the rest of the month. Anybody want to break down the odds on this one?

Regardless of 100% accuracy, I hope you can agree with the picture below. If not, stay inside for the next two weeks.

Before I end my heat discussion, I thought it would be a good idea to explain a little weather terminology. We all know what the wind chill is in winter. It's almost self explanatory. However, as we near the end of this coming week, the term heat index will certainly get thrown around. The heat index takes the actual temperature and the relative humidity percentage to give what most would call a real feel. In other words, when the humidity (amount of water vapor in the air) is higher, the air feels hotter. Evaporation is slower, which means it is harder for the body to cool itself through perspiration.

Walk outside Thursday or Friday and the air will hit you like a wall.

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